证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 比亚迪（002594） 2026 年 1 月销量点评：销量同环比降低，持 续推进高端化和出口 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 602,315 | 777,102 | 839,362 | 887,061 | 990,587 | | 同比（%） | 42.04 | 29.02 | 8.01 | 5.68 | 11.67 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 30,041 | 40,254 | 35,011 | 45,040 | 56,317 | | 同比（%） | 80.72 | 34.00 | (13.03) | 28.65 | 25.04 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.29 | 4.42 | 3.84 | 4.94 | 6.18 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 26.72 | 19.94 | 22.92 | 17.82 | 14.25 | [Ta ...

Group 1 - The overall fund position decreased marginally in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in the allocation to the CSI 300 index [6][14][23] - The allocation to the ChiNext board increased by 1.35 percentage points to 20.49%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 1.17 percentage points to 65.64% [14][21] - The allocation to cyclical sectors increased, while technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors saw a decrease in allocation [7][27] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, public funds increased their allocation to cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors [7][24] - The allocation to materials and mining sectors increased by 3.11 percentage points to 13.51%, while the allocation to information technology and hardware decreased by 2.45 percentage points to 26.23% [27][32] - The telecommunications sector saw an increase in allocation, while the electronics, healthcare, and media sectors experienced a significant decline [7][32] Group 3 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors increased, with the high-dividend industry holding rising by 1.18 percentage points to 5.88% [7] - The allocation to export-related sectors showed mixed results, with an increase in home appliances by 0.18 percentage points to 2.73% and a decrease in semiconductors by 0.39 percentage points to 12.52% [7] - The allocation to core assets decreased, particularly in the power and new energy equipment and food and beverage sectors [7][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings among the top five stocks increased to 15.61%, up by 2 percentage points from Q3 2025 [23] - The allocation to the telecommunications sector was notably increased, while the allocation to AI applications and quantum technology sectors was reduced [7][32]

2026 年 01 月 26 日 二手房成交量价齐升 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：开年建筑开工转暖，工业开工有韧性，需求仍弱 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日）， 水泥发运率、磨机运转率高于 2025 年同期，石油沥青装置开工率处于同期历史 低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。 资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日），工业开工出现分化，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化 表现较弱。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽 车钢胎开工率处于同期历史中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，汽车、家电销售仍弱。最近两周(1 月 10 日至 1 月 23 日)，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需 ...

Economic Growth - Hainan's GDP is projected to reach 810.885 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry is expected to contribute 164.255 billion yuan, growing by 4.4%, while the secondary industry will add 146.386 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.0% [1] - The tertiary industry is anticipated to generate 500.244 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.6% [1] Agricultural and Industrial Performance - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery is projected to be 263.186 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] - Industrial growth is accelerating, with a year-on-year increase of 9.9% in the added value of above-scale industries [1] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors are experiencing significant growth, with increases of 103.1% and 28.1%, respectively [1] Service Sector and Tourism - The added value of the service sector is expected to grow by 4.6% year-on-year in 2025 [1] - The tourism market is showing strong performance, with 106.075 million visitors and total tourism expenditure of 225.432 billion yuan, representing growth of 9.1% and 10.5%, respectively [1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Hainan is projected to decline by 16.5% in 2025 [2] - Social retail sales are expected to grow by 5.0%, with significant increases in home appliances (17.6%), communication equipment (56.6%), and automobiles (33.0%), particularly in new energy vehicles, which are expected to grow by 51.3% [2] Trade and Income - The total service import and export value is projected to be 69.255 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, while the total goods import and export value is expected to be 276.003 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.7% [2] - Per capita disposable income is expected to reach 36,306 yuan, with a nominal growth of 4.2% and a real growth of 4.3% after adjusting for price factors [2] Long-term Economic Outlook - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Hainan's economy is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.7%, surpassing the national average by 0.3 percentage points [3] - The economic total is projected to cross three trillion yuan thresholds within five years, exceeding 800 billion yuan [3] - The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port is entering a new phase, boosting confidence across various sectors and promoting stable economic recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, focusing on state-owned enterprise reform, reported a profit of 3.86 million yuan for Q4 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 2.42% and a total fund size of 142 million yuan as of the end of Q4 2025 [4][17]. Fund Performance - As of January 22, the fund's unit net value was 1.241 yuan, with a one-year cumulative net value growth rate of 15.98%, ranking it 557 out of 613 comparable funds [4][5]. - The fund's performance over the last three months showed a growth rate of 4.90%, ranking 456 out of 621, and over the last six months, it was 6.80%, ranking 556 out of 621 [5]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated a focus on sectors such as exports, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and finance, benefiting from overseas demand expansion and lower domestic factor prices [4]. - Future investment strategies will continue to monitor trends in exports and global liquidity expansion, as well as potential changes in consumption and real estate sectors [4]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio was 0.4125, ranking 321 out of 526 comparable funds [10]. - The maximum drawdown over the last three years was 32.11%, with the highest quarterly drawdown recorded at 24.98% in Q1 2020, ranking 186 out of 526 [12]. Portfolio Composition - The average stock position over the last three years was 89.82%, compared to a peer average of 85.83%, with a peak of 94.15% in mid-2024 and a low of 73.51% in Q3 2023 [15]. - The top ten holdings of the fund include Yili Industrial, Changjiang Power, China Pacific Insurance, and Zijin Mining, among others [20].

Economic Overview - The nominal GDP for 2025 reached 140.2 trillion yuan, achieving a growth target of 5%, with a fourth-quarter GDP growth rate of 4.5% [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, while exports grew by 6.1% and household consumption increased by 4.4%, with service retail sales growing by 5.5% [2] - The contributions to economic growth from final consumption expenditure and net exports were 52% and 32.7%, respectively, indicating that exports and service consumption were the main drivers of growth [2] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, fell by 0.5%, with infrastructure investment down by 2.2% due to local government special bonds being used for debt repayment [3] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 17.2%, with residential sales area dropping to 730 million square meters, an 8.7% decrease from the previous year [3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 0.6%, supported by a notable 11.8% increase in equipment renewal investment due to long-term special treasury bonds [3] Future Economic Projections - The central economic work conference indicated a goal to stabilize investment, with expectations for investment growth to turn positive in 2026 due to increased infrastructure spending from local special bonds [3] - The economic growth target for 2026 is likely to remain stable, with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.17% from 2025 to 2035, considering the demographic changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized rate of 4.4%, slightly above the initial estimate of 4.3% and higher than the previous quarter's growth of 3.8% [1] Economic Indicators - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, increased by 3.5% in Q3 2025 [1] - Government consumption and investment grew by 2.2% during the same period [1] - Exports saw a significant increase of 9.6% [1] - Non-residential fixed investment, reflecting corporate investment conditions, rose by 3.2%, a notable decrease from the previous quarter's growth of 7.3% [1] Data Revisions - The upward revision of the GDP data was primarily due to adjustments in export and investment figures, although this was partially offset by a downward revision in consumption expenditure [1] - Actual final sales to domestic purchasers grew by 2.9%, lower than the initial estimate of 3% [1] - The personal consumption expenditure price index for the quarter was reported at 2.8%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [1] Reporting Context - The U.S. Department of Commerce typically conducts three estimates of quarterly economic data based on improving information [1] - Due to a record government shutdown in the second half of the previous year, this revised data will replace the third estimate originally scheduled for release on December 19 of last year [1] - The first estimate for Q4 2025 will be published on February 20, 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate will be 4.8% in 2026, supported by strong export growth. The MSCI China Index target is set at 100 points, and the CSI 300 Index target is 5200 points by the end of 2026. Net inflows from southbound funds are expected to reach $200 billion (approximately 1.4 trillion yuan), a new record high [1][9]. Export Support Factors - China's export growth is projected to maintain a rate of 5%-6%, significantly higher than the global trade growth of 2%-3%. This forecast is based on three core factors: steady global economic recovery boosting demand, China's cost advantages across various industries, and unique capabilities in rare earths and supply chains, making it difficult for international tariffs to be imposed [2][11]. - The negative impact of the real estate sector on economic growth is expected to diminish over time, with the most significant effects occurring in 2024 and 2025. As the market size shrinks, the downward pressure on GDP growth will lessen [2][11]. Currency Outlook - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately, with an estimated undervaluation of about 25%. By the end of 2026, the RMB/USD exchange rate is projected to reach 6.85, further strengthening to 6.54 by the end of 2027, indicating an annual appreciation of approximately 2%-3% [3][11]. Stock Market Valuation and Returns - The dynamic P/E ratios for the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index have returned to historical averages, at approximately 13 times and 15 times, respectively. The expected stock market return for 2026 is between 15%-20%, primarily driven by earnings growth, with a projected earnings growth rate of 14% [4][12]. - Three main factors are anticipated to drive earnings growth: contributions from the AI industry, expansion into overseas markets, and positive impacts from the "anti-involution" trend [4][12][13]. Liquidity Support - Net inflows from southbound funds are expected to reach $200 billion (approximately 1.4 trillion yuan), reflecting increased demand for stock allocations from domestic individuals and institutions [6][14]. - There is still room for improvement in overseas fund allocations to Chinese stocks, which currently account for less than 8% of total risk exposure among hedge fund clients tracked by Goldman Sachs. Recent communications indicate a growing interest from overseas investors in Chinese investments [6][14]. - Personal investors are projected to contribute approximately 2 trillion yuan to the stock market over the next 12 months, driven by expectations of stock returns between 10%-15% and improved inflation expectations [6][14]. Sector Preferences - Goldman Sachs maintains a high allocation recommendation for AI and technology hardware, reflecting strong confidence in the AI narrative. The materials sector is also favored, while insurance is newly recommended for overweight allocation due to its potential for higher investment returns in a slow bull market and attractive dividend characteristics [8][15]. Policy Focus - The concept of "investing in people" is highlighted as a key policy direction, expected to manifest in various initiatives, including annual childcare subsidies of 3600 yuan. This focus is anticipated to continue and expand, covering the entire life cycle from birth to retirement, with policy support likely to strengthen to improve living standards and increase birth rates [8][16].

Economic Growth - China's Q4 2025 real GDP growth slowed to 4.5%, in line with market expectations, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[2] - Nominal GDP growth slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in Q4, after two consecutive quarters of decline[2] - Quarterly economic growth rose by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly better than the market expectation of 1.1%[2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - December retail sales growth continued to decline for seven consecutive months, dropping from 1.3% in November to 0.9% in December, below the market expectation of 1.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth fell by 1.2 percentage points to -3.8% in December, worse than the market expectation of -3.1%[4] - Cumulative per capita disposable income growth for urban residents decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, a smaller decline than the real economic growth rate[2] Industrial Production and Exports - Industrial production value year-on-year growth rebounded by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2% in December, exceeding market expectations of 5.0%[5] - December export growth increased from 5.9% in November to 6.6%, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 3.1%[7] - Net exports contributed 1.4% to economic growth in Q4, up from 1.2% in Q3, while investment and consumption contributions declined[2] Employment and Inflation - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December, better than the market expectation of 5.2%[5] - December CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven mainly by increases in food and gold prices[6] Policy Outlook - The focus of policy may need to continue on improving domestic demand, with expectations for additional stimulus measures post the National People's Congress[6] - The central bank is unlikely to implement rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions before the Spring Festival, with such actions potentially delayed until after the National People's Congress[8]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the bond market will enter a "game" era in 2025, driven by increased fiscal policy and a focus on "debt reduction + development," with the deficit rate expected to rise to 4% [5][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a nominal GDP growth rate of around 5.5% to achieve a per capita GDP of $20,000 to $30,000 by 2035, necessitating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%-7.5% from 2026 to 2035 [31][32] - The report emphasizes the need for a shift in investment strategies towards a focus on "coupon and leverage" rather than solely capital gains, as the market lacks clear trends [5][21] Group 1: Supply and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to expand, with a focus on "debt reduction + development," leading to a significant increase in special bond issuance [7][12] - The monetary policy will maintain a cautious approach, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 to support fiscal efforts and alleviate bank liabilities [5][13] - The bond market is expected to face challenges due to a high supply of government bonds in the second and third quarters of 2026, which may test market sentiment [5][12] Group 2: Economic Growth and Internal Demand - The report highlights a shift in global monetary policy towards differentiation, with domestic growth needing to focus more on internal demand expansion [32][40] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of innovation-driven growth and the establishment of a unified national market to enhance economic efficiency [31][32] - The expected economic growth will require a stable inflation rate and a focus on enhancing internal growth dynamics to recover from the impacts of previous economic models [31][32] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The report suggests prioritizing duration control in investment strategies for 2026, focusing on capturing short-term opportunities and structural adjustments in bond types [5][21] - The changing landscape of asset pricing and institutional demand may lead to differentiated investment behaviors among banks, insurance companies, and funds [5][12] - The report warns against a mechanical extension of duration for capital gains, advocating for a more active management approach to enhance returns [5][21]