出口吞吐维持韧性，价格走势分化 华泰研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 证券研究报告 固收视角 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 8 月第三周，外需方面，吞吐量同比维持高位，但运价整体偏弱运行，且跌幅有所走阔。地产方面，新房成交基本持 平，二手房热度有所回落，两者同比延续负增，销售中枢不及前期，房价有待企稳，土地溢价率有所上行。生产端来 看，工业方面，货运量表现较好，煤炭价格继续上涨，生产维持韧性分化，焦化、地炼略有上行，纺 ...

钼精矿创近 29 个月新高，钨精矿价格续创 2011 年以来新高水平 2025 年 8 月 25 日 行业研究 要点 流动性：7 月 M1 和 M2 增速差收窄至-3.2 个百分点，创近 49 个月新高。 （1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 7 月值为 46.09，环比上月 -6.16%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 7 月为-3.2 个百分点，环比+0.5 个百分点。 基建和地产链条：8 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+4.64%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹-0.91%、水泥价格指数+1.70%、橡胶+0.00%、焦炭 +3.52%、焦煤+0.47%、铁矿-0.65%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥 、 沥 青 、 全 钢 胎 开 工 率 环 比 分 别 +0.03pct 、 -18.25pct 、 +1.3pct 、 +1.67pct；（3）8 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+4.64%。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃 的价格环比分别+0.00%、+0.00%，玻璃毛利润 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 债市跟随股市起舞 2025年8月23日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约周一跳空低开后大幅下跌，周二横向波动，周三大幅下跌，周四探底反弹，周五略有回落， 全周30年国债跌1.05%，10年国债跌0.52%，5年国债跌0.28%，2年国债跌0.03%。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 8月22日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与8月15日相比表现整体平行上移。2年期国债到期收益率从8月15 日的1.40%上行3个BP至8月22日的1.439% ；5年期国债到期收益率从8月15日的1.59%上行4个BP至8月22日 的1.63% ；10年期国债到期收益率从8月15日的1.75%上行3个BP至8月22日的1.78% ；30年期国债到期收 益率从8月15日的2.05%上行3个BP至8月22日的2.08% 。 7月份，全国一般公共预算收入20273亿元，同比增长2. ...

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at seasonal low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 32.9%, down 12.9% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, down 4.4% year-on-year[14] - Industrial production shows a mixed picture, with PX operating rates at 82.4%, down 7.7% year-on-year, while automotive steel tire operating rates have decreased[24] - Some construction demand has turned positive year-on-year, with rebar apparent demand showing a positive change, primarily due to a low base in 2024[29] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with crude oil prices declining and gold prices showing a slight increase[39] - Domestic industrial prices are generally weak, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining, while coal prices have continued to rise[40] - Agricultural product prices have shown an upward trend, while pork prices have been declining[56] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 18% decrease in average transaction area in 30 major cities compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 29% compared to 2023[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year changes of -8%, +4%, and +2% respectively[62] Exports - Exports from August 1 to 17 are estimated to have increased by approximately 7% to 9% year-on-year, with models indicating a 7% increase and container ship loading data suggesting a 9% increase[65] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.45% and DR007 at 1.51% as of August 1[71] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 21,022 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[76]

Economic Performance - In July, industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year[7] - Fixed asset investment from January to July saw a year-on-year increase of 1.6%[7] Investment Trends - In July, fixed asset investment experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, driven by manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments dropping by 0.3%, 5.1%, and 17.0% respectively[8] - The construction installation engineering growth rate fell to -6.0% in July, indicating a downturn in the construction sector[8] Consumption Insights - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with significant contributions from the automotive and home appliance sectors declining[8] - Restaurant revenue growth remained low, with a slight increase to 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak consumer spending in the service sector[8] Export Dependency - The report emphasizes that export performance remains a critical anchor for growth, as domestic demand alone may not suffice to fill production gaps if exports weaken[8] - July saw a decline in export delivery value growth, dropping below 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a weakening support for production from exports[8] Risk Factors - External economic volatility and uncertainty in policy responses pose risks to future growth, particularly if export trends continue to decline[8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Economic Indicators - July CPI growth slowed to 0% from 0.1% in June, while PPI's year-on-year decline remained at 3.6%[6] - The year-on-year decline in PPI's month-on-month change narrowed to 0.2% from 0.4% in June[6] Export and Trade - High-frequency indicators suggest a potential decline in August exports, indicating a gradual retreat from previous "export rush" effects[1] - July's dollar-denominated import/export growth rates improved to 4.1% and 7.2% respectively, up from 1.1% and 5.9% in June[6] Real Estate Market - New home transaction area in 44 cities saw a year-on-year decline widen to 24.4% from 21.4% the previous week, with first-tier cities experiencing a 39.2% drop[61] - Second-hand home transaction area in 22 cities also saw a decline widen to 3.1% from 3.0%[61] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices fell 4.7% to $66.4 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices rose 1.2% to $3,404 per ounce[3] - Domestic copper and rebar prices increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while coking coal and cement prices rose by 1.7% and 0.7%[3] Financial Market Trends - Interbank liquidity showed marginal easing, with the RMB appreciating 0.39% against the USD[4] - Net issuance of interest rate bonds increased to 808.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 2.7%[4]

Economic Indicators - July 2025 domestic CPI is expected to be approximately 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rate remaining at 0.1%[3] - July PPI is projected to be around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase to -3.3%[3] - Industrial added value is expected to slightly decline to 6.3% year-on-year in July[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to rise to 5.0% year-on-year in July[3] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to decrease slightly to 2.5% year-on-year cumulative[3] - Exports in dollar terms are expected to continue a slight increase to around 6.0% year-on-year[3] Financial Metrics - Trade surplus for July is projected at $1,002 million, down from $1,148 million[4] - Monthly credit increment is expected to be 2,900 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous 22,400 million yuan[4] - Total social financing monthly increment is forecasted at 16,000 million yuan, down from 41,993 million yuan[4] - M2 year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain stable at 8.3%[4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coke**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The overall industrial product futures market is under pressure, and the short - term market is affected by factors such as weak demand and "anti - involution" policies. Different varieties have different fundamentals and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices dropped significantly. This week, thread steel's apparent demand weakened, production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil's demand and production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and the market's negative feedback pressure was low under the low - inventory pattern. The overall domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a relatively high level. The "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact, and the futures market was under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices declined. The global shipment was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume was weak. The port inventory was volatile and might decline slightly in the short term. Steel mills had good profitability, had no motivation to cut production actively, and replenished iron ore stocks. The iron - water production remained high. The market sentiment cooled down, and the price was expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price dropped significantly during the day. The fifth round of price increases by coking enterprises had thin profits, and the daily production increased slightly. The overall inventory continued to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was good. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the coke price was more affected by steel prices [4] Coking Coal - The main - contract price of coking coal hit the daily limit during the day, and the far - month price also hit the limit. The total inventory increased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. The "anti - involution" and coal over - production inspection policies had a positive impact on prices. The further downward space was relatively limited [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price rose first and then fell during the day. The long - term expectation of manganese ore inventory accumulation was improved, but it would still accumulate in the second half of the year, with a small short - term accumulation range. The forward price of manganese ore increased, and the price bottom of silicon manganese gradually rose [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon - iron price rose first and then fell during the day. The iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 242. The export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The supply increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The silicon - iron price followed the silicon - manganese trend, and the power cost might decline again [7]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan indicates a moderate rise in inflation expectations, suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy outlook [1] - Output and exports in Japan are likely to remain weak, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [1]