2026 年 2 月 8 日 总量研究 ——2026 年 2 月 8 日利率债观察 要点 7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 1、7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 近段时间，市场中对 7D OMO 降息的预期有所升温。这主要是不少投资者"判 断"2 月 4 日 3M 买断式逆回购的边际中标利率已降至 1.4%。鉴于当前 7D OMO 利率也为 1.4%，而 3M 和 7D 的央行资金利率之间通常会有一定的期限利差， 因此一些投资者认为本次 3M 买断式逆回购利率的下行将倒逼 7D OMO 降息。 实际上，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作采用的是固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标的方式，边际中标利率由市场化形成，不具有政策利率的属性。人民银行加大 流动性投放力度，买断式逆回购和 MLF 的量给得足一些，那么自然其边际中标 利率就容易低一些。所以，买断式逆回购边际中标利率的下降与 7D OMO 降息 之间并无必然的联系，或至少说是没有直接的联系。 进一步讲，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作数量的确定在主观上是为了调控 CD 等货 币市场利率，在客观上又会影响到工具本身的边际中标利率。因此，对于大多数 投资者而言，关注可以实时获 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - Food prices continue to offset core inflation, and the low inflation of food may be persistent due to the slowdown in catering consumption growth and abundant supply of edible agricultural products. Policy rate cuts may face increased difficulty in a scenario where the stock market remains strong [1][3][7] Summary by Related Content CPI Analysis - In September, the core CPI continued to stabilize trend - wise, with a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. However, food prices offset core inflation, resulting in a slight year - on - year decline in the overall CPI. Food price increases were hindered by the slowdown in catering consumption growth, which may be persistent as catering consumption is now driven only by per - capita consumption demand growth. Abundant supply of edible agricultural products also suppresses food prices [3][6][7] PPI Analysis - In September, the PPI was flat month - on - month and continued to stabilize year - on - year. In the coal - steel industry chain, the coking coal spot price index in late September was close to the average level in December last year, and the futures main contract closing price fluctuated around the December average. But the price index of downstream rebar still had a gap compared to the December average. The decline in international oil prices in the first two weeks of October may put pressure on the October PPI [12][13] Policy Rate Analysis - Considering the continued improvement of the year - on - year PPI and core CPI indicators in September, the urgency of policy rate cuts is limited. The narrowing of commercial banks' net interest margins may still be a constraint on policy rate cuts. With the strong stock market, the year - on - year growth rate of commercial banks' time and other deposits has declined. If the stock market remains strong, it may be more difficult for commercial banks to further reduce deposit rates, and thus policy rate cuts may also face increased difficulty [3][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2025 inflation data, the year - on - year change rates of core and food CPI improved compared to the previous month. Energy price inflation in March was affected by trade friction uncertainties and is expected to face pressure in April [3][6]. - Upstream prices showed a stabilizing trend, reflecting improved domestic demand. Stable domestic demand gives China more leverage in external negotiations [3][12]. - Moderate inflation gives China's monetary policy greater flexibility, but policy rate cuts are still somewhat restricted by the low net interest margin of banks. Whether to cut rates may mainly depend on the impact of trade friction on residents' savings propensity [3][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On April 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released March 2025 inflation data. In March, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with food prices down 1.4% and non - food prices up 0.2%. The CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [5]. Comment - Core and food CPI: The year - on - year change rates of core and food CPI improved in March. The core CPI was flat month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year. The rent - related CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.1%. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in March was about 291,000 square meters, higher than that in March 2024 [6]. - Food CPI: After the Spring Festival, the food CPI decreased month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline converged. In March, the food CPI decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline also narrowed to 1.4% [9]. - Energy price inflation: Affected by trade friction uncertainties, international oil prices in March decreased compared to February, driving down domestic oil prices. In April, energy inflation is expected to continue facing pressure due to increased trade friction risks and OPEC +'s decision to accelerate production in May [12]. - Upstream prices: The price indices of edible agricultural products and production materials showed signs of stabilization at the end of March, reflecting improved domestic demand. China's counter - tariffs on the US may affect the prices of imported products such as agricultural products, but the sources of agricultural product imports have become more diversified [12]. - Monetary policy: Moderate inflation gives China's monetary policy greater flexibility, but policy rate cuts are restricted by the low net interest margin of banks. Whether to cut rates may depend on the impact of trade friction on residents' savings propensity. If the savings propensity can drive down the bank's liability cost, the logic of policy rate cuts is more reasonable [15].