Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both the 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which aligns with market expectations [2] Group 1: LPR Quotation Stability - The LPR rates for August remained unchanged due to the stability of the policy interest rates, specifically the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate [2] - Market interest rates have seen an upward trend recently, but banks lack the incentive to lower the LPR due to historically low net interest margins [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The continuous stability of the LPR for three months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [2] - Experts suggest that the current period is one of policy observation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in the LPR [2]

Regulatory Updates - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time in 2025, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs reduced by 10 basis points to 3.00% and 3.50% respectively [1] - A joint initiative by eight regulatory bodies, including the Financial Regulatory Bureau and the People's Bank of China, introduced measures to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing financing supply and reducing costs [2] Banking Sector Performance - In Q1 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks narrowed to 1.43%, a decrease of 9 basis points from the previous quarter, while the non-performing loan ratio slightly increased to 1.51% [3] - A total of 18 national banks implemented a new round of deposit rate cuts, with significant reductions across various terms, including a drop in the 3-month deposit rate from 0.8% to 0.65% [4] - The A-share banking sector market capitalization surpassed 10 trillion yuan, with the China Securities Bank Index reaching a high of 7751.80 points, supported by high dividends and low valuations [5] Corporate Developments - Ping An Life announced it has acquired a 10% stake in Agricultural Bank of China H-shares, triggering a mandatory disclosure under Hong Kong regulations [6] - Shanghai Bank elected Gu Jianzhong as the chairman of its sixth board of directors [7] - Wang Ming was appointed as the deputy secretary of the Party Committee at Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, with expectations to become the bank's president [8] - Changsha Bank completed its board of directors' election, with Zhao Xiaozhong re-elected as chairman [10] - Huaxia Bank received approval for Yang Shujian's qualifications as chairman and director [11] Legal and Compliance Issues - The former vice president of China Construction Bank, Zhang Gengsheng, was arrested on charges of bribery and illegal loan issuance, with the case currently under further investigation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of deposit rates by major banks indicates a continued trend of lowering interest rates, with significant implications for the banking sector and depositors [1][3][4] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have lowered their deposit rates, with the most notable changes being a 25 basis point reduction in medium to long-term fixed deposit rates and a drop in the current deposit rate below 0.1% [1][2] - The new rates for major banks include a current deposit rate of 0.05%, and fixed deposit rates for various terms have been adjusted to 0.65% for 3 months, 0.85% for 6 months, 0.95% for 1 year, 1.05% for 2 years, 1.25% for 3 years, and 1.3% for 5 years [1][2] - This marks the seventh time since September 2022 that major banks have proactively lowered their deposit rates, with the last adjustment occurring seven months ago [1][3] Group 2: Impact on Depositors - For a 200,000 yuan deposit over three years, the interest difference due to the recent rate adjustment is 1,500 yuan, while for a 1,000,000 yuan deposit, the difference is 7,500 yuan [2] - The adjustments are expected to lead to a decrease in the overall cost of liabilities for banks, as they continue to focus on reducing deposit rates [2][3] Group 3: Future Expectations - It is anticipated that other joint-stock banks will follow suit in adjusting their deposit rates, although the timing may vary based on internal processes [3] - The space for further adjustments in deposit rates is expected to narrow, particularly as the current deposit rate has reached a historical low of 0.05% [3][4] - The recent adjustments align with the central bank's strategy to guide commercial banks in lowering deposit rates through a self-discipline mechanism [3][4]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《汇率压力降低放行货币政策，结构 性投资机会将再次展开》 - 2025.05.09 宏观研究 央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率波动或有所加大 投资要点 （1）适度宽松货币政策总基调不变，从择机调整到灵活把握。 本次报告在货币政策思路方面延续中央经济工作会议和"425"中共 中央政治局会议精神，坚持适度宽松货币政策的基调，但政策节奏或 有所调整，操作节奏或有变化，表述从"择机调整优化政策力度和节 奏"，调整为"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，或意味着在外部环 境无显著变化的情况下，短期或更关注存量货币政策落地，增量货币 政策出台概率有所降低。 （2）央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率或存在回调风险。央行 在专栏 4 特别强调了利率风险问题，关注短期长期国债利率或存在回 调的风险。此外，本次报告删除了资金空转表述， ...