从今年前8个月数据来看，规模以上工业增加值累计同比增长6.2%，略低于上半年的6.4%，服务业生产 指数累计同比增长5.9%，与上半年持平。当前经济增速保持在5.0%的目标水平之上，实现全年经济社 会发展目标任务可期，暂时无需政策加码。 其次，用好结构性货币政策工具。在5月7日发布的"一揽子金融政策"中，央行扩容多项结构性工具、创 设两项新工具，并大幅下调结构性货币政策工具利率等。在政策工具不断完备之后，加强对科技创新、 提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等领域的定向支持将成为工作重点。 另一方面，则由于货币宽松一定程度上受到净息差收窄的影响。央行多次表示，中国的货币政策坚持以 我为主，兼顾内外均衡。随着美联储9月重启降息，中美之间无风险利差改善，人民币兑美元保持稳中 有升势头，因此外部掣肘并不突出，但商业银行净息差问题值得重视。 今年二季度，商业银行净息差收窄至1.42%，刷新历史新低。一旦货币宽松，对存贷款利率传导速度不 同，会进一步挤压商业银行净息差，进而会增加其经营压力。央行在二季度货币政策执行报告中强 调"把握好金融支持实体经济和保持自身健康性的平衡"即就此而言。 基于这两个原因，此次例会也将此前的"灵活 ...

从央行公布的数据来看，2024年1月到8月，居民存款结构的变化是：2024年1月，居民活期存款386684 亿元，8月391492亿元，增加了5202亿元，增幅为1.3%。而1月居民定期存款998521亿元，8月1074918 亿元，增加了76391亿元，增加了7.7%。 从以上数据来看，去年居民活期存款在增加，定期存款也在增加，但是定期存款增幅远远大于活期存款 的增幅，说明存款定期化趋势还是很严重。 再看2025年，2025年1月居民活期存款是434602亿元，8月是416198亿元，减少了18404亿元，减少幅度 为4.2%。 1月居民定期存款是1133070亿元，8月份为1194010亿元，增加了60940亿元，增加幅度为5.4%。 文/冉学东 居民存款定期化趋势是近几年商业银行经营中备受关注的重要现象。不过随着存款利率的一降再降，加 上商业银行各种压降成本的手段，银行存款定期化趋势正在变缓。 今年居民活期存款出现减少趋势，但是减少幅度不小，同时定期存款也依然在增加，不过增加幅度在变 小。这说明居民存款定期化趋势仍然在持续，只不过定期化的速度正在收敛。 但同时，值得注意的是，活期存款在减少，说明居民对未 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's monetary policy is shifting towards using reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts instead of aggressive interest rate cuts to protect bank interest margins and maintain indirect financing channels, while also allowing for gradual interest rate reductions and innovative structural tools to stabilize finance and promote transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Since 2016, China has adjusted the RRR 23 times, all downward, reducing the RRR for major deposit-taking financial institutions from 17.5% to 9.0%, a total decrease of 8.5 percentage points [3]. - In contrast, the policy interest rates have only been adjusted 14 times since 2016, indicating a preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [3][4]. - The current average RRR for Chinese financial institutions is approximately 6.2%, suggesting substantial room for further RRR cuts compared to major economies where RRR tools are less utilized [5]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased to 1.42%, the lowest on record, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the banking sector if interest rates are cut too aggressively [3][4]. - The banking sector is crucial for supporting the real economy, as it accounts for 89.7% of financing in China, compared to only 42% in the U.S., where direct financing plays a larger role [4]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - RRR cuts will increase the funds available for commercial banks, enabling them to better support proactive fiscal policies, as approximately 68% of national debt and 75% of local government debt is held by commercial banks [6]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy is contingent on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, especially given the low excess reserve ratio in China [6]. Group 4: Interest Rate Dynamics - There is limited elasticity of consumption and investment to interest rate changes in China, which diminishes the effectiveness of interest rate cuts in stimulating economic activity [8]. - The decline in interest rates has led to a reduction in household deposits, with a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a relationship between lower interest rates and reduced savings [8]. - Despite the current low inflation and a slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, there remains room for further interest rate cuts, especially as external conditions improve with potential U.S. rate cuts [8][9]. Group 5: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - China has been innovating structural monetary policy tools, which have become increasingly important in supporting weak economic sectors and key areas such as technology innovation and green development [9]. - As of the end of 2024, structural monetary policy tools are expected to account for approximately 14.2% of total bank assets in China, highlighting their growing significance [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both the 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which aligns with market expectations [2] Group 1: LPR Quotation Stability - The LPR rates for August remained unchanged due to the stability of the policy interest rates, specifically the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate [2] - Market interest rates have seen an upward trend recently, but banks lack the incentive to lower the LPR due to historically low net interest margins [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The continuous stability of the LPR for three months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [2] - Experts suggest that the current period is one of policy observation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in the LPR [2]

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，未来在大力提振内需、巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势过程中，政策利率 及LPR报价有下调空间。 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年8月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR 为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均与上期持平。这是LPR自今年5月下降以来，连续三个月维持不变。 图片来源：人民银行网站 从融资成本看，目前，企业和居民贷款利率已处于较低水平，今年以来又进一步下行。央行数据显示，7月 新发放企业贷款利率约3.2%，新发放个人住房贷款利率约3.1%，分别较去年同期下降约45个基点和30个基 点。专家认为，社会综合融资成本呈现不断下降的趋势，在此背景下LPR下降并非当务之急，必要性不足。 此外，金融监管总局发布的最新数据显示，上半年商业银行净息差为1.42%，较一季度微降0.01个百分点。 这表明净息差仍处在低位，银行缺乏下调LPR报价加点的动力。 专家分析，由于政策利率保持平稳，本月LPR定价基础未发生改变，LPR保持不变符合市场预期。央行在5 月加大逆周期调节力度，出台一揽子金融支持举措，其传导和成效也需要观察。 ...

新京报贝壳财经讯（记者黄鑫宇）在上市银行半年报业绩密集披露期到来前，由国家金融监督管理总局发布的银行业主要指标数据及其变化，无疑成为前瞻 银行业上半年整体表现的一个窗口。 8月15日晚，2025年二季度银行业主要监管指标数据情况如期而至。数据显示，2025年上半年，商业银行（法人口径，下同）累计实现净利润1.2万亿元；不 良贷款余额3.4万亿元，较上季末减少24亿元，不良贷款率1.49%，较上季末下降0.02个百分点。整体来看，我国商业银行风险抵补能力充足，信贷资产质量 总体稳定。 各类型商业银行净息差水平以及关注类贷款的变化趋势，成为二季度数据的关注焦点。 首先，从净息差整体水平看，截至6月末，商业银行净息差为1.42%，较3月末时下降了0.01个百分点。商业银行净息差收窄态势，在本季度仍未出现拐点。 分机构类型横向来看，截至6月末，以微众银行等为代表的民营银行净息差水平最高，仍旧保持在3%以上；然而，以国有"六大行"为代表的大型商业银行净 息差水平，距离1.3%整数关口仅有0.01%的空间。 新京报贝壳财经记者 黄鑫宇制图 值得关注的是，截至6月末，大型商业银行、城市商业银行、外资银行的净息差，已位于商业 ...

Regulatory Updates - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time in 2025, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs reduced by 10 basis points to 3.00% and 3.50% respectively [1] - A joint initiative by eight regulatory bodies, including the Financial Regulatory Bureau and the People's Bank of China, introduced measures to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing financing supply and reducing costs [2] Banking Sector Performance - In Q1 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks narrowed to 1.43%, a decrease of 9 basis points from the previous quarter, while the non-performing loan ratio slightly increased to 1.51% [3] - A total of 18 national banks implemented a new round of deposit rate cuts, with significant reductions across various terms, including a drop in the 3-month deposit rate from 0.8% to 0.65% [4] - The A-share banking sector market capitalization surpassed 10 trillion yuan, with the China Securities Bank Index reaching a high of 7751.80 points, supported by high dividends and low valuations [5] Corporate Developments - Ping An Life announced it has acquired a 10% stake in Agricultural Bank of China H-shares, triggering a mandatory disclosure under Hong Kong regulations [6] - Shanghai Bank elected Gu Jianzhong as the chairman of its sixth board of directors [7] - Wang Ming was appointed as the deputy secretary of the Party Committee at Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, with expectations to become the bank's president [8] - Changsha Bank completed its board of directors' election, with Zhao Xiaozhong re-elected as chairman [10] - Huaxia Bank received approval for Yang Shujian's qualifications as chairman and director [11] Legal and Compliance Issues - The former vice president of China Construction Bank, Zhang Gengsheng, was arrested on charges of bribery and illegal loan issuance, with the case currently under further investigation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of deposit rates by major banks indicates a continued trend of lowering interest rates, with significant implications for the banking sector and depositors [1][3][4] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have lowered their deposit rates, with the most notable changes being a 25 basis point reduction in medium to long-term fixed deposit rates and a drop in the current deposit rate below 0.1% [1][2] - The new rates for major banks include a current deposit rate of 0.05%, and fixed deposit rates for various terms have been adjusted to 0.65% for 3 months, 0.85% for 6 months, 0.95% for 1 year, 1.05% for 2 years, 1.25% for 3 years, and 1.3% for 5 years [1][2] - This marks the seventh time since September 2022 that major banks have proactively lowered their deposit rates, with the last adjustment occurring seven months ago [1][3] Group 2: Impact on Depositors - For a 200,000 yuan deposit over three years, the interest difference due to the recent rate adjustment is 1,500 yuan, while for a 1,000,000 yuan deposit, the difference is 7,500 yuan [2] - The adjustments are expected to lead to a decrease in the overall cost of liabilities for banks, as they continue to focus on reducing deposit rates [2][3] Group 3: Future Expectations - It is anticipated that other joint-stock banks will follow suit in adjusting their deposit rates, although the timing may vary based on internal processes [3] - The space for further adjustments in deposit rates is expected to narrow, particularly as the current deposit rate has reached a historical low of 0.05% [3][4] - The recent adjustments align with the central bank's strategy to guide commercial banks in lowering deposit rates through a self-discipline mechanism [3][4]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《汇率压力降低放行货币政策，结构 性投资机会将再次展开》 - 2025.05.09 宏观研究 央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率波动或有所加大 投资要点 （1）适度宽松货币政策总基调不变，从择机调整到灵活把握。 本次报告在货币政策思路方面延续中央经济工作会议和"425"中共 中央政治局会议精神，坚持适度宽松货币政策的基调，但政策节奏或 有所调整，操作节奏或有变化，表述从"择机调整优化政策力度和节 奏"，调整为"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，或意味着在外部环 境无显著变化的情况下，短期或更关注存量货币政策落地，增量货币 政策出台概率有所降低。 （2）央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率或存在回调风险。央行 在专栏 4 特别强调了利率风险问题，关注短期长期国债利率或存在回 调的风险。此外，本次报告删除了资金空转表述， ...