Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced increased volatility, with lithium carbonate main contract closing at 81,000 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit [1] - The mining activities in the Jiangxi Yichun area have been fully suspended, which accounts for approximately 12.5% of the domestic lithium carbonate monthly output [1] - The main contract for polysilicon closed at 52,985 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.34%, driven by sustained demand in the new energy sector [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial silicon, linked to the new energy supply chain, saw a price increase to 9,000 yuan/ton, up by 4.83%, influenced by rising prices of related products and expectations of supply constraints due to environmental policies [1] - The short-term outlook for the soda ash industry indicates a clear downward trend in spot prices due to overcapacity and slow demand transformation [4] - The polyester industry chain is facing profit imbalances, with PX maintaining high profits while PTA and terminal polyester profits are at low points [5] Group 3: External Influences - The crude oil market is under pressure, with the main contract falling to 489.4 yuan/barrel, down by 1.41%, due to OPEC+ production increases and expectations of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine [1] - The short-term market trends will be influenced by sudden disruptions in resource supply and long-term policy framework adjustments, alongside weather changes and trade policy adjustments affecting agricultural products [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its overall policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks in the post-pandemic era [2] - The economic environment has drastically changed since the pandemic began in 2020, necessitating a reassessment of the existing policy framework [2] - The rise in "real" interest rates post-inflation indicates increased instability in future inflation, prompting the need for a policy framework adjustment [2] Group 2 - The evaluation of the policy framework is expected to be completed by August or September, with no immediate impact on current interest rate settings [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the specific details of the adjustments once they are disclosed [3] Group 3 - The core elements of the Federal Reserve's policy framework are likely to be reshaped, with a greater focus on monitoring and responding to inflation volatility [4] - The Federal Reserve may reconsider the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to better stabilize economic growth and the job market [4] Group 4 - The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's policy framework could trigger a "butterfly effect" in global markets, impacting capital flow patterns and potentially leading to currency fluctuations and financial market volatility [6] - The changes in policy will reshape investment logic for global investors, affecting interest rates, exchange rates, and asset prices [6] - The Federal Reserve's response to the new economic conditions in the post-pandemic era will have profound implications for both the U.S. and global economies and financial markets [6]