1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Policy is a crucial factor affecting soybeans this year. With Brazil's soybean harvest, the domestic supply is abundant before the new US soybean season, and soybean meal prices are expected to remain weak. New US soybeans may face export pressure, and their prices may decline. Demand for feed is expected to increase in the fourth - quarter. The international soybean supply is loose, and future focus should be on policies, North American weather, and South American new - season production [5][65] - **Corn**: The domestic corn supply is tight this year due to reduced production and imports. The market is affected by policies, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. New - season corn production may be affected by disasters, and prices may weaken when new corn hits the market [7][106] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H1 Soybean Meal Market Review - **Price Review**: International and domestic soybean meal prices fluctuated widely in H1 2025, influenced by supply, trade policies, and geopolitics. US soybeans rose from 947 cents/bu to 1075 cents/bu in Q1 and then fell to 970 cents/bu in early April, later rising to around 1050 cents/bu. Domestic soybean meal prices rose from 2616 yuan/ton to 3025 yuan/ton in February - March and reached a high of 3168 yuan/ton in early April, then declined [14][15][19] US Soybean Balance Sheet - **New - season Planting**: In 2025, the US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, a 4.2% year - on - year decrease due to last season's losses [21] - **Yield and Production**: The old - season US soybeans continued to accumulate inventory in 2024 - 25. New - season planting and early growth were smooth, with a 66% good - to - excellent rate as of June 29. Future weather and policies need attention [23][24] South American Soybean Balance Sheet - **Brazil**: USDA expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 175 million tons. This year's production was a record high, and the ending inventory increased. The weather is currently normal, but there is a risk of La Nina after October [31][33][36] - **Argentina**: The 2025 soybean production is expected to be 49 million tons, a historical average. The ending inventory slightly increased [38] Canadian Rapeseed Balance Sheet - The new - season Canadian rapeseed planting area decreased slightly, but the yield is expected to be high, and the ending inventory may reach 1.6 million tons. Export is uncertain, affected by China - Canada and US - Canada trade relations [43] Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - **Sino - US Trade**: Trade friction resumed this year. China's soybean imports mainly come from Brazil. If the 90 - day negotiation fails, it will affect domestic soybean supply after October and US soybean exports [46] - **China - Canada Trade**: Tariffs mainly affect Canadian rapeseed meal prices. Trade friction may change the international rapeseed trade flow [48][49] - **Imports and Inventory**: In May 2025, China imported 13.918 million tons of soybeans. As of June 30, soybean inventory was 6.6587 million tons, and soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons [50] - **Downstream Demand**: Since H2 2024, the pig industry's capacity has slowly recovered. Feed production increased by 10.6% in the first five months of this year, and soybean meal consumption increased by about 5% [58][62] Meal Market Outlook - The policy is crucial. Before the new US soybean season, the domestic supply is loose, and soybean meal prices will be weak. New US soybeans may face export pressure. Future focus should be on policies, North American weather, and South American new - season production [65] 2024 Corn Market Review - **Price Review**: Corn prices oscillated and rose in H1 2025, from 2209 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2420 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 9.1% [66][70] International Corn Supply and Demand - **US**: In 2025/2026, the US corn planting area increased to 95.2 million acres. The total supply is expected to be 17.21 billion bushels. The new - season corn growth is good, but exports are affected by Sino - US trade relations [76] - **Brazil**: The new - season Brazilian corn planting area increased slightly. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 131 million tons [80] Domestic Corn Supply and Demand - **New - season Corn**: The current season's corn sales have ended, and the new - season corn is growing. Heilongjiang may be affected by low temperature and hail, and the impact on production needs further attention [83] - **Imports**: In May 2025, China imported 190,000 tons of corn. From January to May, the cumulative import was 628,900 tons, a significant decrease [86] - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the northern port inventory was about 2.724 million tons, and the southern feed grain inventory was about 1.889 million tons [91] - **Demand**: In June, the corn starch industry's operating rate was 51.93%. From January to July 3, starch, alcohol, and amino acid processing enterprises' corn consumption changed differently. Feed production increased in the first five months [95][102] Corn Market Outlook - Corn supply is currently tight, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. New - season production may be affected, and prices may weaken when new corn is on the market. Attention should be paid to policy changes and new - season production [106]