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观车 · 论势 || 锂价上涨背后的供需思考
Group 1 - The price of lithium carbonate, known as the "white gold" of new energy vehicles, has surged significantly in recent months, reaching a peak of 86,500 yuan per ton on August 18, marking a nearly 40-50% increase compared to 60,000 yuan per ton in early June [1] - The recent price increase is attributed to a shift in market supply and demand dynamics, with supply-side constraints becoming more pronounced due to mining permit expirations and geopolitical factors affecting lithium ore imports [1][2] - In July, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 26.3% and 27.4%, which has further intensified the demand for lithium carbonate [2] Group 2 - The rise in lithium prices is also influenced by corporate strategies, with some lithium companies reducing production or temporarily halting operations to drive up prices, while local regulations are tightening compliance among lithium mining enterprises [2][3] - Recent policy changes, including the revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, aim to eliminate below-cost sales practices, promoting a healthier competitive environment in the lithium industry [3] - The current price increase is seen as a result of supply contraction, recovering demand, market sentiment, and policy guidance, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the lithium battery sector [4] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the automotive industry transformation and resource allocation will continue to influence lithium carbonate prices, which are expected to find a balance between regulated capacity and market demand [5] - Long-term forecasts suggest that global lithium carbonate supply will increase from 1.55 million tons in 2025 to 2.4 million tons in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.3%, supporting sustainable development in the lithium battery industry [5]