来源：市场资讯 （来源：太阳投研札记） 洪灏在《展望 2026：持而盈之》上下篇中，从全球经济格局、中美市场表现、政策走向及资产配置等 多个维度，分析了 2026 年市场的风险与机遇，核心观点可总结为以下两大方面： 特朗普发起的全球贸易战未能改善美国贸易赤字，反而因中国制造业优势和稀土行业整合，让美国谈判 筹码不足；关税政策推高美国通胀预期，进一步复杂化美联储决策。 美国经济与市场：风险积聚，泡沫隐现 1. 货币政策失去独立性，陷入 "三难" 困境 美联储货币政策逐渐从属于美国财政政策，因美国政府债台高筑，美联储需通过购债为财政赤字融资， 其决策受经济增长、通胀高企和金融稳定三重矛盾制约。 美国回购市场流动性紧张，隔夜逆回购工具近乎归零，美联储大概率将停止量化紧缩并重启扩表，但扩 表方式（买短端 / 长端债券）将影响资产价格走势，短期利好市场，长期恐因久期问题难改美股冲高回 落趋势。 2.经济周期步入晚期，半导体与经济周期背离 量化模型显示美国经济未来数月将放缓，而半导体周期仍在冲高，美股涨幅集中于少数科技巨头和 AI 相关企业，市场宽度持续收窄，科技股估值已接近甚至超过 2000 年互联网泡沫水平。 美国私 ...

Core Insights - Economic data has consistently exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in Treasury yields to levels seen before the Federal Reserve meeting [1] - The focus of the market is shifting towards the labor market report and the risk of government shutdown, both of which could have simultaneous impacts [1] - The employment market's significance in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions is highlighted, with potential delays in the September unemployment report increasing market concerns about policy direction [1] Financial Performance - FactSet has adjusted the S&P 500 earnings forecast from a previous estimate of 7.7% to 7.9% [1] - Despite appearing robust, actual earnings growth remains below the double-digit growth seen in the second quarter, indicating a "top-heavy" market reliant on the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks for earnings growth [1] - This reliance on a few large tech companies may explain the recent stagnation in broader market performance, with most stocks and sectors underperforming compared to leading segments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes is expected to reveal significant insights into the ongoing debate between hawkish and dovish stances, particularly in light of political pressures and dissenting votes in July [1] Group 1 - The minutes will provide clues regarding the future pace of interest rate cuts and overall policy direction [1] - There is an intensifying "hawk-dove" debate within the Federal Reserve, influenced by external political pressures [1] - The July meeting saw two dissenting votes, indicating underlying tensions and differing views among policymakers [1]