来源：市场资讯 （来源：太阳投研札记） 洪灏在《展望 2026：持而盈之》上下篇中，从全球经济格局、中美市场表现、政策走向及资产配置等 多个维度，分析了 2026 年市场的风险与机遇，核心观点可总结为以下两大方面： 特朗普发起的全球贸易战未能改善美国贸易赤字，反而因中国制造业优势和稀土行业整合，让美国谈判 筹码不足；关税政策推高美国通胀预期，进一步复杂化美联储决策。 美国经济与市场：风险积聚，泡沫隐现 1. 货币政策失去独立性，陷入 "三难" 困境 美联储货币政策逐渐从属于美国财政政策，因美国政府债台高筑，美联储需通过购债为财政赤字融资， 其决策受经济增长、通胀高企和金融稳定三重矛盾制约。 美国回购市场流动性紧张，隔夜逆回购工具近乎归零，美联储大概率将停止量化紧缩并重启扩表，但扩 表方式（买短端 / 长端债券）将影响资产价格走势，短期利好市场，长期恐因久期问题难改美股冲高回 落趋势。 2.经济周期步入晚期，半导体与经济周期背离 量化模型显示美国经济未来数月将放缓，而半导体周期仍在冲高，美股涨幅集中于少数科技巨头和 AI 相关企业，市场宽度持续收窄，科技股估值已接近甚至超过 2000 年互联网泡沫水平。 美国私 ...

Core Insights - The global economic landscape in the first half of 2025 shows a clear dominance of the US and China, with the US GDP at approximately $14.93 trillion and a growth rate of 1.9%, while China follows with a GDP of $9.19 trillion and a growth rate of 5.3% [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Rankings - The top five economies in the first half of 2025 are the US, China, Germany, Japan, and India, with India showing the highest growth rate at 7.6% [2][4][6] - Germany experienced a negative growth rate of -0.1%, indicating economic challenges, while Japan's growth was modest at 1.5% [2][7] - The gap between India and Japan is narrowing, with India expected to surpass Japan in GDP by the end of 2025 or early 2026, marking a significant shift in global economic power [6][4] Group 2: European Economic Performance - European economies are generally struggling, with Germany facing a 0.1% contraction and other countries like France, Italy, and the UK showing low growth rates [7][9] - Russia, despite facing sanctions, managed to achieve a GDP of $1.12 trillion with a growth rate of 1.2%, reflecting resilience amid structural challenges [7][13] Group 3: Emerging Markets and Trends - Emerging markets, particularly India, are expected to continue their rise, with Indonesia and Mexico also showing significant potential for growth [13][4] - The impact of inflation and currency fluctuations on GDP rankings is highlighted, with Turkey surpassing Indonesia due to nominal GDP increases driven by high inflation [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining moderate inflation and a relatively strong currency to ensure sustainable economic growth [13][11]

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - The GDP data for major global economies in the first half of 2025 shows the US leading with a total of $14.93 trillion, followed by the EU at approximately $10 trillion, and China demonstrating strong resilience with steady growth [1] - The US GDP grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with a nominal growth rate of 4.4%, and a significant rebound in Q2 with an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing a contraction of 0.5% in Q1 [3] - The EU's GDP for the first half of 2025 was around $10 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, while the EU Commission revised its annual growth forecast down from 1.5% to 1.1% [8] Group 2: Challenges in the US Economy - The US economy faces several challenges, including a decline in consumer spending, which contributed only 0.98% to GDP growth, the lowest since the pandemic [5] - Business investment in non-residential fixed assets dropped significantly from 23.7% growth in Q1 to 4.8% in Q2, indicating a lack of confidence among companies [5] - The labor market appears robust, but the actual labor force participation rate has decreased to 62.3%, with nearly half of new jobs created by the government [5] Group 3: EU Economic Issues - Germany, as the economic engine of the EU, experienced a 0.4% year-on-year decline in GDP in Q1, while France's growth of 0.8% fell short of expectations [7] - The euro's share in international payments has dropped to 22%, raising concerns about the risk of some countries moving away from using the euro [7] Group 4: China's Economic Resilience - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 was 66.05 trillion yuan, approximately $9.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, making it one of the highest among major economies [10] - Consumer spending is gradually recovering, with retail sales increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, and service consumption rising by 7.5% [12] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing grew by 10.1%, with emerging industries like new energy vehicles and integrated circuits maintaining double-digit growth [13] Group 5: Future Outlook and Development Models - Each major economy faces unique challenges: the US must address issues related to tariff policies and debt, the EU needs to manage internal imbalances and geopolitical pressures, while China aims to stabilize growth and accelerate the establishment of a new development framework [15] - China's development model, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than aggressive stimulus, is seen as a potential reference for other developing countries amid a complex global environment [15]

Group 1 - The drastic drop of 63% in China-US shipping prices reflects a significant shift in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by the recent economic downturn in the US and reduced import demand [1][3] - The uncertainty in international trade, particularly due to fluctuating tariff policies and the ongoing trade tensions between China and the US, has led to a cautious approach among businesses, resulting in decreased shipping orders [3][5] - Chinese foreign trade enterprises face both challenges and opportunities; while reduced orders may lead to overproduction and profit declines, it also presents a chance to reassess business models and explore new markets, such as those along the Belt and Road Initiative [5][6] Group 2 - The significant decline in shipping prices indicates a subtle shift in the global economic structure, as companies increasingly consider relocating production bases to Southeast Asia, impacting the overall trade volume between China and the US [5][8] - The government, businesses, and industry organizations must take proactive measures; the government should enhance support for foreign trade enterprises, while companies need to innovate and improve product quality to remain competitive [5][8] - The volatility in shipping prices serves as a signal of the changing economic environment and the complexities of China-US relations, emphasizing the need for timely strategy adjustments by companies and stable international relations at the national level [6][8]