政策面和估值三重共振
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长江证券肖勇:基本面、政策面和估值三重共振 推动煤炭板块走强
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 08:48
Core Viewpoint - The coal sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance recently, driven by a combination of fundamental, policy, and valuation factors [1] Group 1: Fundamental Factors - The price of thermal coal has surged, with a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton, which is relatively rare in history [1] - Demand has risen due to unexpected cooling in northern regions and gradual cooling in southern regions, leading to increased daily consumption by power plants and lower inventory days compared to previous years, resulting in significant replenishment needs [1] - On the supply side, stricter safety regulations and "anti-involution" policies have limited overproduction, resulting in constrained supply release [1] Group 2: Policy and Valuation Factors - Despite some industry leaders having high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, their dividend yields remain around 5%, which meets the cost requirements for insurance capital liabilities [1] - The dividend yield offers a competitive value compared to the overall market [1] - Key elastic targets include coking coal and flexible thermal coal varieties, with price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows over the past decade, enhancing the coal sector's comparative advantage in the market [1]