1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the expectation of rising energy valuations is increasing, leading to a low - level upward repair of coking coal, alloys, and glass - soda ash futures prices. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, with steel and iron ore inventories still under pressure, so the upward driving force for steel and iron ore prices is limited, and they will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner. Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the driving force for the futures price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price increase. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have recovered and are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, after the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the pressure on the inventory is still there. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support strength of post - festival demand [2][7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. The supply is gradually recovering, and it is expected to return to normal in about two weeks. The demand is at a seasonal low, and the inventory has decreased significantly during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand situation [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the long run, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand of coke. In the short term, although there are disturbances, the supply - demand structure of coke will continue to be healthy. However, the cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the expectation of spot price reduction is strong. The futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. The supply may decrease slightly during the Two Sessions, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [2][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to run weakly and stably, while the futures price is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation affected by capital sentiment. The supply has recovered rapidly, the import is at a high level, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support is insufficient, there is resistance in the downward transmission of the cost end, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against. The cost is rising, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction is limited but the driving force is insufficient. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production of manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation is quickly repaired above the cost line. The cost support is strengthening, the demand recovery is slow, and the manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [3][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has a disturbance expectation, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The supply may decline in the long run, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the inventory pressure is large [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high inventory and high supply always suppress the price [3][12] 3.5 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering, but the overall production is at a low level. The demand is also at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating. The fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated. Affected by the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the macro - environment is still uncertain. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2364.70, up 1.43%. The steel industry chain index on the same day was 1915.51, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.74%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.06% [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined. The sudden conflict between the US and Iran has caused market turmoil, with panic and inflation expectations affecting the global financial market. LME copper inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 5,287 tons to 295,881 tons. In the short term, there are both macro - risks and fundamental pressures, and the accumulation of inventory may trigger a revision of the previous supply - demand expectations. The copper price may have a second - round correction risk, but when the market has priced in the risks and the inventory accumulation ends, and positive signals are released by China and the US, the market may enter a stage of rising risk preference. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. The price of SMM alumina stopped falling and rebounded. The spot discount of aluminum ingots remained stable. The reduction of production by large northern alumina plants and the seasonal consumption of raw material inventory by electrolytic aluminum plants led to a slight reduction in alumina inventory. However, the accumulation of futures warehouse receipts and the resumption of some overhauled production capacity after the festival will still suppress the upside. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly, and the alumina price will run weakly and stably. Due to the concentrated arrival of goods after the festival and insufficient manpower at the station, the logistics turnover efficiency is limited, and it is expected that the aluminum ingot inventory will continue to accumulate, with the peak likely to appear in mid - to - late March. The short - term supply - demand is in a mismatch stage, and attention should be paid to the improvement time of the aluminum ingot inventory accumulation efficiency [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 2.77% to $17,205 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 2.55% to 136,300 yuan per ton. The LME inventory remained at 287,976 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 590 tons to 53,721 tons. The tightening of nickel ore quotas has led to a shortage of nickel ore supply, and the premium of nickel ore and nickel iron prices have strengthened. The cost is the core support for the nickel price. Currently, the inventory pressure of primary nickel is still large. It is advisable to continue to pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line and the inventory situation of primary nickel. If the subsequent visible inventory can be significantly reduced, it may have a positive feedback on the price, and overseas macro - risks should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price decline, macro - impact from US - Iran conflict, inventory increase, short - term risk of price correction, long - term opportunity for risk preference recovery, and a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price strength, alumina price rebound, inventory changes, short - term supply - demand mismatch, and attention to inventory accumulation efficiency [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price decline, inventory changes, cost support, and attention to inventory and cost - line trading opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 245 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper increased by 45 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 986 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,287 tons, and social inventory increased by 23,000 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, the premium of 1 lead ingot in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of lead concentrate remained stable. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,888 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased, the spot premium remained unchanged, the price of Shandong alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of pre - baked anodes decreased by 28 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,490 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 72,000 tons and alumina increased by 67,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,450 yuan/ton, the premium of 1 imported nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of nickel ore increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 590 tons, and social inventory increased by 2,036 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 is not available, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged, the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the zinc alloy and zinc oxide prices also decreased. The domestic TC remained unchanged, the inventory of SHFE increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 31,500 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 is not available, the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%, the SMM spot price increased by 4,000 yuan/ton, and the price of tin concentrate increased by 13,400 yuan/ton. The inventory of SHFE increased by 12,253 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][10][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [14][15][16][18][19]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][21][22][23][24][25]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][27][28][29][30][31]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][33][34][35][36][37]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][40][41][43][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: Master of Science, current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, senior researcher of precious metals, intermediate investment analyst of gold, and has won many industry awards. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience and has published many professional articles [46]. - **Wang Heng**: Master of Finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, current non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won industry awards and has in - depth research in hedging accounting and information disclosure [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: Master of Science from the University of Warwick, UK, current non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She has won industry awards and focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [47].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PVC powder market is experiencing weak fundamentals, with prices expected to decline further after the holiday period [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic PVC powder market price fluctuated within a range, with an average price of 4720 yuan/ton as of February 26, down by 38 yuan/ton or 0.80% compared to pre-holiday levels [1][3]. - Downstream demand is in a recovery phase, with some improvement in transactions during price declines, but overall trading atmosphere remains average [1][3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The market trends are primarily influenced by a macroeconomic environment that shifted from strong to weak, alongside weak fundamentals in the PVC sector [3]. - During the holiday, the price of crude oil fluctuated upwards, initially supporting chemical products, including PVC futures, but the overall macroeconomic environment weakened afterward, leading to a correction in PVC futures [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Supply and demand fundamentals are expected to remain weak, although there may be some macroeconomic support; prices are anticipated to fluctuate within a range next week [4]. - On the supply side, limited maintenance of enterprises is expected, with high operational rates in the industry, and sales pressure is manageable due to pre-holiday order fulfillment [4]. - On the demand side, production enterprises are gradually resuming operations, but operating rates may remain low, leading to cautious raw material procurement [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Price Expectations - Social inventory is expected to continue increasing, with high inventory levels putting pressure on the market [4]. - The average price of PVC powder is projected to range between 4680 and 4800 yuan/ton, with a slight downward shift in price focus [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of steel are both weak, inventory is still accumulating, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand is average. The inventory pressure of iron ore remains, the resumption of coal mines after the Spring Festival will accelerate, the downstream replenishment willingness of coking coal is limited, and the supply - demand pressure of glass and soda ash remains. The prices of related varieties are under pressure. Affected by the news of South African manganese ore, the alloy futures market is strong, but it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure when the price rises to a high level [1] - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is still cautious. The futures market still has downward adjustment pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply side still has expectations of weather disturbances. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, but the pressure has been released after the rapid decline of the futures market. With the upcoming Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, there are still macro expectations. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are both weak in the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and actual demand in the future [8] Carbon Element - Coke: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to continue to grow. As logistics and transportation gradually recover, the inventory accumulation of coking enterprises will be alleviated. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [11] - Coking coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of manganese ore prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental contradiction is not large, but there is no obvious upward driving force in the futures market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and electricity costs, as well as the changes in the production start - up level of manufacturers [17] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair, the high inventory will always suppress the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13] Other Information - The report also provides daily monitoring data of spot and futures indicators of black building materials varieties, including spot prices, basis, and futures market profits of various varieties [20] - The report shows the commodity index and plate index of CITIC Futures on February 26, 2026, including the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index, as well as their changes [102][104]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the electrolytic aluminum market is experiencing a cautious macro sentiment, leading to a range-bound fluctuation in prices [1] - As of February 24, the spot aluminum price is 23,390 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.95% increase compared to pre-holiday levels [1] - The decline in aluminum water ratio has reached a low for the year, resulting in increased supply, while downstream inventory accumulation is at a five-year high, potentially rising to 1.3 million tons [1] Group 2 - Demand is expected to improve as downstream operations resume, providing moderate support for prices [1] - Future aluminum prices are projected to remain within the range of 23,000 to 24,000 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1: Market Data - LPG and propylene futures market data include yesterday's closing price, daily increase, night - session closing price, night - session increase, yesterday's trading volume, change compared to the previous day, yesterday's open interest, and change compared to the previous day. For example, for PG2603, yesterday's closing price was 4,297 with a 1.06% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,255 with a - 0.98% increase [1]. - LPG and propylene spot market data include yesterday's price, change compared to the previous day, main contract basis, and change compared to the previous day. For instance, the price of Shandong civil LPG was 4,500, up 30, and the main contract basis was - 82, down 300 [1]. - Industrial chain start - up data shows that as of 2026/2/20, the PDH start - up rate was 64.84%, down 0.73 compared with last week; the MTBE start - up rate was 67.22%, down 0.65 compared with last week; the alkylation start - up rate was 36.85%, unchanged [1]. - LPG shipping volume data from the US and the Middle East to different regions are provided. For example, from the US to Asia, the shipping volume was 4.5 (in 10,000 tons) yesterday, down 4.6 compared to the previous day [1]. Group 2: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]. Group 3: Market News - On February 24, 2026, for March CP paper goods, propane was 540 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 532 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. For April CP paper goods, propane was 527 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [8]. - Domestic PDH device maintenance plans from multiple companies are listed, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different capacities and undetermined end - times for most [9]. - Domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans are also provided, including production enterprises such as Rizhao (China Overseas), Shenchi Chemical, etc., with specific normal output, loss output, start - time, end - time, and maintenance duration [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the LPG and propylene markets, indicating that geopolitical disturbances in the LPG market still exist and the fundamental driving force is downward, while the propylene spot price remains stable and the basis converges [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For LPG (PG): The 2603 contract closed at 4,262 with a daily increase of 0.26% and a night - session close of 4,295 with a night - session increase of 0.77%. The trading volume was 41,631, a decrease of 20,093 from the previous day, and the open interest was 25,613, a decrease of 3,707. Similar data is presented for the 2604 and 2605 contracts [3] - For propylene (PL): The 2603 contract closed at 6,240 with a daily increase of 0.97% and a night - session close of 6,264 with a night - session increase of 0.38%. The trading volume was 7,309, an increase of 6,094 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,917, a decrease of 1,101. Similar data is presented for the 2604 and 2605 contracts [3] 3.1.2 Spot Market - For LPG (PG): Shandong civil use price was 4,430, with a main - contract basis of 168, a decrease of 71 from the previous day. Other regions like East China, South China also have corresponding price and basis data [3] - For propylene (PL): Shandong price was 6,445, with a main - contract basis of 173, a decrease of 43 from the previous day. East and South China also have relevant data [3] 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Start - Up - PDH start - up rate was 62.66%, an increase of 1.94 from the previous week. Alkylation start - up rate was 36.85%, unchanged from the previous week, and MTBE start - up rate was 68.01%, unchanged [3] 3.1.4 LPG Shipment Volume - From the US to the world, the shipment volume was 29.6 tons on February 11, 2026, an increase of 10.7 from the previous day. To Asia it was 22.9 tons, an increase of 7.1. To China it was 9.3 tons, an increase of 9.3. Similar data is presented for shipments from the Middle East [3] 3.2 Trend Strength - LPG trend strength is 0, and propylene trend strength is 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On February 11, 2026, the March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 538 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; butane was 529 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 523 US dollars/ton, unchanged [8] - There are domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic LPG factory device maintenance plans, including information such as enterprise names, device names, production capacities, maintenance start and end times [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping over 2%, influenced by a broader decline in precious metals and a rebound in the US dollar, indicating a decrease in risk appetite [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum contract has seen a decline of more than 2%, while aluminum alloy prices have also followed suit with a nearly 2% drop [1] - Precious metals have experienced significant declines, contributing to the overall negative sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, the characteristics of a demand off-season are becoming increasingly evident, leading to a continuous accumulation of social inventories [1] - The short-term performance of the aluminum market appears weak due to these fundamental factors [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices on both domestic and international markets rose strongly and reached new highs, then quickly corrected. The sharp rise was driven by capital and market sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. After the speculative sentiment fades, copper prices will gradually return to the pattern of "strong expectation" and "weak reality" dominated by fundamentals. In the short - term, be vigilant about the high - level volatility of copper prices, and in the long - term, wait for demand verification [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Macro aspect: After the Fed's first interest - rate meeting this year, the interest rate remained unchanged. The market had anticipated the delay of the interest - rate cut policy. The US dollar index weakened to a historical low, then rebounded after Trump nominated Warsh as the next Fed chairman [2]. - Supply end: The long - term supply shortage story is still solid. There are frequent disturbances in the mining end, and Chinese smelters' production cut plans due to low processing fees have intensified supply - side concerns. The supply shortages in the mining and smelting ends support copper prices at the bottom [2]. - Demand end: As the Spring Festival approaches, traditional downstream industries enter the off - season, with light procurement activities. The high spot prices following the futures rise have suppressed physical demand [2]. Key Concerns - Pay attention to the latest US economic data and downstream demand changes [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week's Same Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 104410 | 100680 | 3730 | 3.70% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 140 | - 180 | 40 | 22.22% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 50.2 | - 49.8 | - 0.4 | - 0.80% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 105390 | 101810 | 3580 | 3.52% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 174975 | 171700 | 3275 | 1.91% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 233004 | 225937 | 7067 | 3.13% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | Short tons | 577724 | 562605 | 15119 | 2.69% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio (without excluding exchange rates) in the form of graphs, with data sources from Boyi Master and Ningzheng Futures [5][6][7] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows the copper concentrate forward spot price (in TC price), the average processing price of crude copper, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, the price change trends of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference in the main markets in the form of graphs, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [12] 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows the 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%) in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgical) in the form of graphs, with data sources from iFinD, the Steel Union Terminal, and the Steel Union Data [15] 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - The report shows the electrolytic copper spot inventory and the inventories of three major futures exchanges in the form of graphs, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and iFinD [17]