能源化工日报 2025-08-26 原油 能源化工组 2025/08/26 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.97 美元，涨幅 1.52%，报 64.74 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.95 美元，涨幅 1.40%，报 68.74 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.40 元，跌幅 0.29%， 报 485.6 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.43 百万桶至 209.84 百万桶，环比去 库 0.21%；汽油商业库存去库 1.51 百万桶至 88.63 百万桶，环比去库 1.68%；柴油商业库存 累库 0.59 百万桶至 105.18 百万桶，环比累库 0.56%；总成品油商业库存去库 0.92 百万桶至 193.81 百万桶，环比去库 0.47%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，且宏观偏空，但当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静 态基本面与动态预测仍表现良好。我们维持上周对原油多配的观点，但当前价格已不宜追多， 基 ...

感觉今天晚上，等到美国上班时间就知道这一波到底走到哪里了毕竟周五鲍威尔的“鸽派”发言大家应该都感受到了，市场一片欢腾，以太坊猛猛地带着大部分山寨币都狠狠冲了一波。而且在这种普涨行情里，我也发现一些沉寂已久的老币种也开始蠢蠢欲动，各个赛道跑出来的还是挺明显的， 比如NFT方向的 $PENGU ，GameFi 赛道的老币 $YGG除了表现明显优于同赛道的gemefi token之外，成交量也在放大，背后可能不只是市场情绪，似乎有具体动作在发生扫了一下推，感觉回购这个故事是合理的：链上信号的逻辑顺序很清晰，先是观察到有 100 万 USDT 存入币安，用的 $YGG 常用的deposit地址，这应该是为回购准备资金https://t.co/zfIH4D1lkF在这之后，昨天一笔大额的 $YGG 果然从交易所被提走，放回链上钱包，根据Arkham，这个多签钱包是属于YGG @gabuschhttps://t.co/BuLicDnAq7金额基本对得上，这种行为通常就是项目方在二级市场进行回购，自己下场买入代币项目方回购，一般意味着几件事：- 他们认为当前币价被低估了- 通过减少市场上的流通量来支撑价格- 也是最重要的， ...

当然，我不是说新币不好。相反现在只有新币能玩只是新币现在基本都是很难有基本面的 😂 不像 ena 这种老币，已经很硬了 ...

围绕事件博弈的一周。 尽管多重事件交织，本周债券市场情绪在波动中仍实现了修复。一方面，在权益和商品价格回调、政治局会议未落地 超预期政策的背景下，风险偏好回落；另一方面，政策不确定性暂时过去之后，市场关注重心回归到对基本面和资金 面的判断。 周五突发的税收调整是否打断这种情绪修复？ 周五财政部、税务总局公告称对新发行的国债、地方债、金融债的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。对于本次国债等债券 票息恢复征收增值税的政策调整，我们认为，其影响更多体现为一次性和结构性的价格重估，而不构成趋势性的方向 改变。若还有央行配合对冲操作，尤其是提供流动性支持或开展公开市场买债操作，市场对税负上升的响应过程有望 更加平稳。具体看来，这个事件有四个相对确定和三个不确定性比较大的影响： 四个相对确定的影响：（1）静态测算下新老券利差扩大幅度或落在 6–11bp 之间。（2）本轮未纳入征税范围或此前已 征税的品种相对受益。（3）资管类产品相对优势进一步强化。（4）对银行而言，信贷资产相对吸引力上升。 三个不确定性影响：（1）新老债利差走阔以何种方式"分配"。（2）央行是否对冲及对冲程度。（3）是否意味着开启新 一轮税收制度调整周期仍待观察 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine its elasticity. Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The contradiction at the mine end has faded, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range fluctuation judgment. Stainless steel is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern, with macro hype sentiment fading and the influence of actual verification increasing [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the contradiction at the nickel mine end fades, the smelting end logic suggests a narrow - range fluctuation. The premium of Indonesian nickel mines has回调, and the cash cost of pyrometallurgy has decreased by 1.4%. The global visible inventory of refined nickel shows a mild increasing trend, and the expected increase in low - cost supply in the long - term still drags down the market. However, the de - stocking of nickel - iron inventory at a high level slightly boosts the nickel price valuation [1]. - **Macro Factors**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing previous supportive measures, and the market valuation may回调 marginally. Overseas, the weakening US dollar supports non - ferrous metals but suppresses industrial external demand expectations [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. Stainless Steel Market - **Production Arrangement**: In August, the stainless - steel production arrangement is 3.23 million tons, with a marginal increase of 0% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year increase has slightly declined to 2.1%. In Indonesia, the August production arrangement is 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth is 1.2% [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The nickel - iron price has been revised up to 920 yuan/line, and the cash cost of stainless - steel billets is about 12,584 yuan/ton. The warehousing profit has回调 from a high of 3.0% to 1.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: After the production cut in June - July, the stainless - steel inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of about 5%, but it is still 5% higher than last year. The nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 10% month - on - month but is 56% higher year - on - year, which may drag down the steel price [2][5]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per single line [6]. - Environmental violations have been found in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park, and possible fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6][7]. - The production of some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia has been suspended due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,840 [8]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 106,856, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 124,683 [8].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 1 日 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2508 | 22595 | 22635 | 22720 | 22580 | 10 | 0.04 | 17354 | -3108 | | 沪锌 | 2509 | 22640 | 22670 | 22770 | 22610 | 10 | 0.04 | 116245 | -1371 | | 沪锌 | 2510 | 22640 | 22695 | 22795 | 22625 | 30 | 0.13 | 61298 | 7261 | 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Southern Road Machinery (603280), reported significant stock price fluctuations despite no major changes in its fundamentals, indicating potential risks for investors [1] Company Overview - Southern Road Machinery has maintained a focus on the engineering mixing sector since its establishment, developing a comprehensive product system that includes "raw aggregate processing equipment - engineering mixing equipment - aggregate resource recycling processing equipment" [1] - The company's main business operations remain unchanged, and there have been no significant changes in the internal or external operating environment [1] Stock Trading Activity - The company disclosed that its stock price has deviated from its fundamental value, and if the price continues to rise, it may apply for a trading suspension for further investigation [1] - The company emphasized that its production and operational activities are currently normal [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - After the Politburo meeting on July 25 fell short of expectations, commodity sentiment cooled down, and today it hit rock - bottom. Most energy and chemical products, except for PVC and two types of rubber, mainly fluctuated with market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in sentiment and the trend of crude oil on the cost side [3][4] - Trump's remarks pressuring Russia briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has soared. The North American peak season is coming to an end, and the off - season is approaching. The supply - demand pressure for crude oil will gradually emerge [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: Trump's remarks briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply - demand pressure will gradually appear. The North American peak season is ending, and the off - season is approaching, with the United States' refined oil inventories increasing for three consecutive weeks and crude oil inventories starting to accumulate [5] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose and then fell today, with intraday fluctuations. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle, and the short - term support is at the 526 level [5] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply start - up has increased, port inventories have continued to accumulate, total inventories are at a historically high level compared to the same period, actual demand has not improved, and new device production is approaching. The fundamental driving force remains bearish [8] - Technical Analysis: Short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It continued to fall today and closed at a new low. The short - term pressure above is temporarily at the 7440 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: Precipitation disturbances in Hainan and Southeast Asia postponed the supply increase, but a new typhoon is moving north, and supply increase is a relatively certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The current rubber inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish [12] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 15120 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Supply device start - up has increased, synthetic rubber production has significantly rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The cost of butadiene has some support due to low port inventories, but the medium - term fundamental pressure on synthetic rubber remains high [17] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 11950 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: Polyester start - up continues to decline, demand expectations are pessimistic, supply start - up has rebounded, and supply - demand is weak. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [20] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [20] PTA - Logic: Short - term supply - demand changes are not significant, inventory levels are not high, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. However, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [22] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22] PP - Logic: Downstream demand is sluggish, supply - side start - up fluctuates slightly, but previously shut - down devices will gradually restart, and new production capacity will be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to remain. Inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [24] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly cycle is close to breaking through but has not been confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply is at a high level compared to the same period, downstream demand is weak, short - term arrivals are normal, port inventories continue to accumulate, and overseas Iranian device start - up is stable. The short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to cost and recent sentiment drivers [29] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline/shock on the daily level, short - term decline structure. It fell with reduced positions today, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29] PVC - Logic: Supply has increased, demand remains sluggish during the off - season, inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [31] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It broke through downward with increased positions today, and the short - term trend reversal was confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Start - up has slightly decreased, demand is weak, port inventories fluctuate at a low level, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The fundamental driving force is weak. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [33] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear, but the 15 - minute level confirmed a decline. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [33] Plastic - Logic: Shut - down devices gradually restarted in late July, start - up has increased, downstream overall start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the delivery logic as the 09 basis weakens. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [37] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It has followed market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [37]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [4]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range fluctuations, with attention to the switch of macroeconomic sentiment [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures market shows a strong upward trend [13]. - Polysilicon: Driven by news, the futures market shows a strong upward trend [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan. Trading volumes and price changes over different time intervals are provided [5]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on various nickel and stainless - steel products such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel sheets are presented, including prices, spreads, and profit margins [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5]. - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project has entered the trial production stage [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian IMIP industrial park, and audits and potential fines are planned [6][7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three to one year [7]. - The approved production target for Indonesian nickel mines in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons [7]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of its EF lines, affecting about 1,900 metal tons of nickel - iron output per month [7][8]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets starting in October 2025 [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts, as well as other related indicators such as basis and spreads, are provided [10]. - **Industry Chain**: Prices of raw materials like lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica, and lithium - salt products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, are presented [10]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 668 yuan/ton [11]. - China issued 1,121 energy - storage project lists in the first half of 2025, with a total installed capacity of over 198.145GW [12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the Si2509 and PS2509 contracts, as well as spreads, basis, and cost data, are provided [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Information on prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products in the photovoltaic, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is presented [14]. Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Administration of China will accelerate the construction of the new - energy power - market system and promote the development of supporting policies [15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with short - term stability and potential minor increases in some regions. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, with short - term upward potential but facing adjustment risks [6][31]. - For both soda ash and glass futures, the current recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend. The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity remains, limiting price increases. The futures are expected to show high - level volatility [6]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The soda ash futures were volatile last week. The spot market had weak supply - demand conditions, with an operating rate of 84.10%. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulation indicated an oversupply situation. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity persists. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 is 1250 - 1450, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend, showing regional price differentiation. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures market first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment. In the short term, prices may still have upward space, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy implementation [31]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend last week, showing regional differentiation. The futures were more volatile, first rising and then falling, and were expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 was 1000 - 1200, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 is 1200 - 1400, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [35]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit using natural - gas - fueled float technology, basis (daily), and ending inventory [37][43][46].