正信期货：预计短期纯苯延续震荡格局 库存方面，截至2025年11月17日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量14.7万吨，较上期累库3.4万吨，环比 上升30.09%；较去年同期累库2.93万吨，同比上升24.89%。需求方面，在缺乏终端需求实质性回暖信号 的背景下，需求端对价格的支撑有限。现货方面，苯乙烯基差整体走强5~10块，换货月差走缩。现货 EB12+50~65商谈，11下EB12+55~+65成交；换货方面，11换12升水30成交。现货商谈区间6520-6630， 11下6520-6630。总结来看：11月多套供应装置传出检修计划，进口货到船数量维持低位，总供应有缩 量预期。苯乙烯、己内酰胺、苯胺、己二酸对纯苯需求下降，苯酚对纯苯需求稳定，下游总体需求下 降。策略：基本面短期无明显利好支撑，但成品油强势叠加歧化减产预期，预计短期纯苯延续震荡格 局。 新湖期货：纯苯价格或走入震荡区间 供给端，最新石油苯开工在76.67%，相较前一周下滑1.31%，新增部分检修装置，实际到港仍偏多，进 口远端下滑幅度暂不确定，但强预期为价格提供支撑。需求端，下游加权开工率在73.52%，环比小幅 提升，终端需求表现仍一般，纯 ...

铜周报 20251123 宏观短期偏空，矿端犹存约束， 沪铜震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 盘面跌、终端采购意愿回升，铜现货升贴水抬升 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 本周LME铜0-3M升贴水先跌后涨、环比变动有限 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.11美元/吨至-42.32美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增5.7万吨至70.49万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走弱 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback of the recent decline in the steel market has ended, and short - term price increases are mainly due to short - sellers taking profits. Steel demand has entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2]. - For iron ore, although the supply has recovered and high inventory suppresses prices, the short - term increase in hot metal production supports demand. In the macro - vacuum period, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. - For the black sector, as the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to increase. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.441%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3655 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 107385 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.412%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6484 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 23505 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be an inflection point in demand later [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, up 2.07% (+16.00). The positions increased by 1019 lots to 48.14 million lots. The weighted positions were 90.75 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.38% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume has recovered significantly. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal output has increased, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Port inventory is accumulating. In the short term, prices will operate within a shock range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.77% at 5792 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF601) closed up 1.38% at 5566 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - As the time approaches December, the positive impact of macro - expectations on the black sector is expected to increase. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9080 yuan/ton, up 0.67% (+60). The weighted contract positions decreased by 2209 lots to 401179 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 52655 yuan/ton, down 2.57% (-1390). The weighted contract positions decreased by 6818 lots to 234241 lots [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of "weak supply and demand", with short - term prices likely to be weak and volatile. Polysilicon is still fluctuating between reality and expectations, and prices are in a wide - range shock [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1029 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-3). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 11.10 million cases (0.18%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 0.41% (+5). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (0.18%) [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high inventory, and weak demand, the short - term market will continue to be weak. For soda ash, with high supply and weak demand, prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks during the current bull market, highlighting the dominance of domestic investors in A-shares and the influence of external liquidity and local market conditions on Hong Kong stocks [2][10]. Group 1: A-shares vs. Hong Kong Stocks - A-shares are primarily driven by domestic investors, particularly public and private funds, who are highly sensitive to policy information and favor "industry tracks" with high visibility [2]. - In contrast, Hong Kong stocks have seen significant price increases in certain assets, referred to as the "three sisters," with notable price surges: Old Poo Gold's stock price increased 11 times, Pop Mart rose 617%, and Mixue Group saw a maximum increase of 165% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in these assets has amplified market sentiment, contributing to a 40% increase in the Hang Seng Index, which rose from around 17,000 to 24,800 points, with trading volume tripling [4]. - However, the "three sisters" share a common trait of concentrated liquidity and sentiment-driven trading, leading to rapid corrections once sentiment wanes [5][6]. Group 3: Liquidity Factors - Despite global liquidity improvements, Hong Kong stocks have struggled due to tightening local liquidity conditions, particularly as the overnight Hibor rate surged, indicating a decrease in market liquidity [10][18]. - The relationship between the Hang Seng Index and U.S. Treasury yields is highlighted, with the index typically responding inversely to changes in U.S. interest rates [11][13]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals - The article emphasizes that global liquidity improvements do not necessarily equate to a recovery in risk appetite, as market confidence ultimately hinges on economic fundamentals [22][23]. - Recent trends show a marginal improvement in Hong Kong's corporate earnings, with a decrease in the rate of decline in net profits for the Hang Seng Index from a 7.2% drop in 2024 to a 1.4% decline in Q1 2025 [23][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the key factors influencing the future of Hong Kong stocks include the improvement of economic fundamentals and the establishment of a more accommodative liquidity environment [30][32]. - The potential for a more favorable liquidity situation is contingent upon the confirmation of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which could lead to a decrease in local funding costs and an increase in market liquidity [33].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251116 [1] Report Core View - The macro - situation is short - term bearish, the fundamentals are acceptable, and the copper market is in a volatile state [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot trading improved slightly, and the premium/discount remained stable overall [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium/discount strengthened compared to the previous period [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.17/ton week - on - week to - $42.21/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 647,900 tons [19] - The change in the refined scrap price difference was limited week - on - week [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [25] - From January to October in China, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [27] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory increased [28] - LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, mainly due to the callback of the previous week's market and the concentrated release of new orders [32] - From November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 5% year - on - year [34] - In November, the production schedules of domestic component enterprises varied, and the overall production schedule is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In October in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - In October in the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months, while the service PMI reached an eight - month high [43] - Fed officials took a hawkish stance, and the probability of an interest rate cut in December decreased [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its slow bull trend in 2026, supported by factors such as improved fundamentals and a rising profit cycle [3][6][12]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages predict that the A-share market will maintain a slow bull trend following the recent upward movement since September 24 [3][6]. - The importance of fundamentals is expected to increase after a period of valuation repair, with the key to sustained upward momentum being the realization of profit cycle expectations [6][7]. - The macroeconomic environment, including economic fundamentals and capital flows, will significantly influence the A-share market in 2026 [6][9]. Group 2: Supporting Factors - The normalization of U.S.-China relations and the restructuring of the international monetary order are seen as beneficial for RMB assets, while the AI revolution is entering a critical application phase, which will benefit domestic tech innovation [6][9]. - The recovery of A-share profits is anticipated to provide crucial support for market performance, with overseas revenue from Chinese companies expected to increase significantly [7][9]. - The economic structure is shifting towards new industries and business models, contributing to GDP growth and reducing the proportion of traditional industries [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Institutions favor asset allocation in technology growth and consumer recovery sectors, with a focus on three main lines: self-reliance in technology, industrial upgrades, and strategic resource security [4][14]. - The market is expected to see a balanced style in 2026, with recommendations to focus on sectors experiencing growth, those benefiting from external demand, and cyclical reversals [14][15]. - The potential for AI to expand its commercial applications is viewed as a critical factor influencing the technology sector and overall market sentiment [15].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251109 [1] Core Viewpoint - There is uncertainty in the macro - environment, and the resonance between the fundamentals' expectations and reality is limited [1] Price Data - The copper futures price declined, the spot purchasing sentiment warmed up, and the premium increased [9] - The LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened slightly week - on - week [10] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.04/ton, still at a low level [14] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 0.36 tons week - on - week to 62.97 tons [16] - The refined - scrap copper price spread decreased week - on - week [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in November is expected to decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [20] - China's imports of copper ore and concentrates from January to October were 2508.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [22] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [25] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, as the copper price declined and downstream purchasing picked up [29] - The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market from October 1st to 31st increased by 17% year - on - year [30] - The production schedules of domestic component enterprises in November vary, with the overall schedule expected to decline month - on - month [31] - The planned production of household air - conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [32] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [35] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months in October, and the service PMI reached an eight - month high [37] - The direction of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December is unclear [40]

Core Insights - Interparfums (IPAR) has established itself as a consistent performer in the luxury fragrance industry, focusing on brand management, free cash flow, and profitability [2] - The company has adjusted its 2025 sales forecast to $1.47 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, influenced by economic challenges and retailer inventory reductions [3] - Interparfums has reported a 6% increase in diluted EPS to $2.05 for Q3 2025, marking 20 consecutive quarters of profitability [3] Financial Performance - The company has a free cash flow yield of 5.0%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [7] - Interparfums has achieved a 3-year average revenue growth of 14.7% and an operating margin of 19.2%, showcasing solid fundamentals [7] - The stock is currently trading at a 41% discount to its 2-year high and 12% below its 1-month high, with a price-to-sales ratio lower than its 3-year average [7] Market Position and Strategy - The growth in sales is attributed to new licensing agreements with brands like Lacoste and Coach, along with a planned launch for Longchamp in 2027 [3] - The luxury fragrance sector is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.86% through 2030, providing a favorable market backdrop for Interparfums [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in copper prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and weak fundamentals, leading to a downward trend in prices [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The ISM data for October indicates a continued cooling of inflation in the U.S. [1] - Unexpected rebound in ADP employment figures has created a divergence in economic data, increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The uncertainty surrounding future interest rate paths remains significant [1] Group 2: Fundamental Factors - Previous high prices have led to an accumulation of inventory in the market, resulting in a relatively abundant supply of copper [1] - Slow recovery in consumption is evident, with demand being significantly suppressed by high prices [1] - The limited macroeconomic stimulus on prices suggests that the fundamental recovery for copper remains unsatisfactory, indicating a potential for continued weakness in copper price levels [1]