影响市场走势的主要原因是宏观氛围先强后弱及基本面弱势。节后宏观氛围先强后弱，假期期间原油价 格震荡走高，节后化工品整体先偏强，对PVC期货有所带动，但随后宏观整体转弱，PVC期货也跟随回 调。PVC基本面表现不佳，对PVC粉市场形成利空，假期期间PVC粉行业开工维持高位，下游处于假期 状态，节后恢复较慢，社会库存明显增加，华东及华南社会库存达到历史高位，而上游由于节前接单较 多，压力暂时不大。 下周来看，供需基本面延续偏弱，但宏观方面或有支撑，预计下周PVC粉价格或区间震荡。 心态方面：近期商品氛围先强后转弱，下周重要会议临近，部分政策预期存在，关注市场预期是否出现 转折。 PVC粉：基本面偏弱 节后价格重心下移 【导语】节后国内PVC粉市场区间震荡，基本符合节前预期。下周PVC粉基本面延续弱势，宏观氛围或 有支撑，价格预计偏弱震荡。 本周国内PVC粉市场价格区间震荡，价格重心小幅下移。截至2月26日，国内电石法PVC粉SG-5周均价 4720元/吨，较节前下跌38元/吨，跌幅0.80%，跌幅变化不大。下游需求处在恢复状态，周内价格下跌 时部分成交改善，整体交投氛围一般。 供应端：下周检修企业有限，检修损失量 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-27 现实⽭盾仍存，盘⾯⽀撑有限 节后钢材供需双弱，库存仍在累积，基本⾯缺乏亮点，且市场对旺季 需求预期⼀般，同时铁矿⽯库存压⼒仍存，春节后煤矿复产速度将加 快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压⼒仍存，相关品种价格表现 承压。受南⾮锰矿消息扰动影响，合⾦盘⾯表现强势，但盘⾯涨⾄⾼ 位将⾯临明显的卖保压⼒。 节后钢材供需双弱，库存仍在累积，基本面缺乏亮点，且市场对旺季 需求预期一般，同时铁矿石库存压力仍存，春节后煤矿复产速度将加 快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压力仍存，相关品种价格表现 承压。受南非锰矿消息扰动影响，合金盘面表现强势，但盘面涨至高 位将面临明显的卖保压力。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当前市场对节后 需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，节后即将召开两 会，宏观预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢供需双弱，基本面驱动 有限，价格波动不大。 2. 碳元素方面：节后焦炭供需均有继续增长预期，随着物流运输的 逐渐恢复，焦企累库情况将得到缓解，焦炭供需结构将继续保持健 康，现货预计暂 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 电解铝：宏观情绪谨慎 基本面施压市场维持区间震荡 春节前后现货铝市场维持震荡态势。截至2月24日富宝A00现货铝价23390元/吨，环比节前涨0.95%。主 因，一、春节前后宏观驱动降温，春节期间海外关税调整影响亦较为温和。二、铝水比降至年内低位， 供应提升的同时下游受制于铝价高位减少备货，节后累库同比位于近五年高位，后续或攀升至130万 吨。需求端随着下游复工将有改善，当前支撑温和。后市铝价或维持23000-24000元/吨震荡。 ...

LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 2026 年 2 月 25 日 丙烯：基本面维持偏紧，关注节后补库动态 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,297 | 1.06% | 4,255 | -0.98% | | 2603 | 26,948 | -22,320 | 12,612 | -3,467 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,582 | 3.76% | 4,535 | -1.03% | PG | 2604 | 79,184 | 26,435 | 80,250 | 9,486 | | 期货市场 | | 26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the LPG and propylene markets, indicating that geopolitical disturbances in the LPG market still exist and the fundamental driving force is downward, while the propylene spot price remains stable and the basis converges [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For LPG (PG): The 2603 contract closed at 4,262 with a daily increase of 0.26% and a night - session close of 4,295 with a night - session increase of 0.77%. The trading volume was 41,631, a decrease of 20,093 from the previous day, and the open interest was 25,613, a decrease of 3,707. Similar data is presented for the 2604 and 2605 contracts [3] - For propylene (PL): The 2603 contract closed at 6,240 with a daily increase of 0.97% and a night - session close of 6,264 with a night - session increase of 0.38%. The trading volume was 7,309, an increase of 6,094 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,917, a decrease of 1,101. Similar data is presented for the 2604 and 2605 contracts [3] 3.1.2 Spot Market - For LPG (PG): Shandong civil use price was 4,430, with a main - contract basis of 168, a decrease of 71 from the previous day. Other regions like East China, South China also have corresponding price and basis data [3] - For propylene (PL): Shandong price was 6,445, with a main - contract basis of 173, a decrease of 43 from the previous day. East and South China also have relevant data [3] 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Start - Up - PDH start - up rate was 62.66%, an increase of 1.94 from the previous week. Alkylation start - up rate was 36.85%, unchanged from the previous week, and MTBE start - up rate was 68.01%, unchanged [3] 3.1.4 LPG Shipment Volume - From the US to the world, the shipment volume was 29.6 tons on February 11, 2026, an increase of 10.7 from the previous day. To Asia it was 22.9 tons, an increase of 7.1. To China it was 9.3 tons, an increase of 9.3. Similar data is presented for shipments from the Middle East [3] 3.2 Trend Strength - LPG trend strength is 0, and propylene trend strength is 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On February 11, 2026, the March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 538 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; butane was 529 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 523 US dollars/ton, unchanged [8] - There are domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic LPG factory device maintenance plans, including information such as enterprise names, device names, production capacities, maintenance start and end times [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping over 2%, influenced by a broader decline in precious metals and a rebound in the US dollar, indicating a decrease in risk appetite [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum contract has seen a decline of more than 2%, while aluminum alloy prices have also followed suit with a nearly 2% drop [1] - Precious metals have experienced significant declines, contributing to the overall negative sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, the characteristics of a demand off-season are becoming increasingly evident, leading to a continuous accumulation of social inventories [1] - The short-term performance of the aluminum market appears weak due to these fundamental factors [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]

期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 铜：冲高回落，回归现实 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周内外盘铜价强势拉涨，纷纷创下新高，价格触及高点后迅速回调，波动 明显。宏观面上，美联储本年度第一次议息会议结束，利率稳定不变，市场此前已对降息政策暂缓有 所预估，美元指数走弱至历史低位，特朗普提名沃什为美联储下一任主席，带动美元指数回升。供应 端，长期供应短缺故事依旧坚实，矿端扰动事件频发，中国冶炼厂因加工费低迷导致的减产计划，加 剧供应侧担忧，矿端与冶炼端的供应紧张问题在底部为铜价提供支撑。需求端，临近春节，传统下游 进入淡季，采购活动清淡，叠加随期货高涨的现货价格，对实体需求产生抑制作用。 本次铜的暴力拉升主要是资金面和市场情绪共同推动的结果，极大的偏离的基本面，创下历史新 高后，市场情绪趋于敏感，获利了结压力与监管关注度均在上升，周五立即出现大幅回调。在投机情 绪消退后，铜价还是要逐步回归基本面主导的"强预期"和"弱现实"格局，短期内警惕铜价在高位 的波动性，长期则等待需求验证。 关注因素：美国最新经济数据、下游需求 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The fundamentals of steel are under continued pressure, and steel prices are fluctuating [1] Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures fluctuated and rose yesterday, while the spot market quotes remained stable, with dull production and sales by manufacturers and a cold trading atmosphere in the spot and futures markets This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.216 million heavy boxes, a 0.38% increase from the previous week [2] - Soda ash futures also fluctuated and rose yesterday, with limited rigid demand procurement from downstream. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5212 million tons, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week [2] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant. Although some production lines have been gradually cold - repaired, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. With the procurement by spot - futures traders, the inventory pressure is expected to ease, and the market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the progress of glass cold - repair [2] - The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has increased. Considering the upcoming new production projects in the future and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass production lines, it is necessary to suppress the production profit of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased under the influence of macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [2] Strategy - The glass market is expected to be in a state of fluctuation, while the soda ash market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Group 3: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - The main contract of silicon manganese opened lower and moved higher yesterday, with trading volume increasing as the market fluctuated at a high level. The cost support for the alloy is acceptable. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5,570 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [4] - The silicon ferrosilicon futures fluctuated strongly yesterday, and the market adjusted slightly, with strong cautious waiting - and - seeing sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade natural block silicon ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon ferrosilicon is 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton [4] Supply - Demand and Logic - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities coming on - stream, so the supply - demand is still relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, the demand for silicon manganese is expected to improve. The recent tariff policy changes in South Africa may increase the cost of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [4] - The fundamental contradictions of silicon ferrosilicon are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage inventory replenishment, the demand for silicon ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering the expected further decline in domestic electricity prices this year and the overall over - capacity of silicon ferrosilicon, the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of silicon ferrosilicon and the electricity price policies in production areas [4] Strategy - Both the silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are expected to be in a state of fluctuation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current state of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is still considered a bull market, despite fluctuations and signs indicating it may be in the later stages of the bull cycle [4][10][53]. Market Performance - Over the past year, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen significant increases, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 56.51% and the CSI All Share Index increasing by 68.54% from September 2024 to January 2026 [5]. - The CSI All Share Index experienced a rise of 61.93% from its lowest point in September 2024 to its peak in October 2025, confirming a technical bull market [9]. Market Signals - Signs indicating the potential late stage of the bull market include: 1. A surge in stock fund subscriptions exceeding 100 billion on January 12, 2026, alongside the suspension of certain fund subscriptions [13]. 2. An increase in the margin requirement from 80% to 100% announced by major exchanges on January 14, 2026, aimed at curbing leveraged investments [14]. 3. Significant net outflows from major ETFs, suggesting institutional investors are taking profits [14][15]. Market Characteristics - The current bull market has been characterized by significant gains in small-cap and growth stocks, with some reaching overvaluation [17]. - Conversely, dividend stocks have shown modest gains and remain relatively undervalued, indicating potential for future growth [21]. Valuation Insights - As of January 20, 2026, the market is rated around 3.8 stars, indicating that most stocks have returned to normal valuations, with fewer stocks considered undervalued [36]. - The overall valuation landscape has shifted from a high percentage of undervalued stocks in September 2024 to a more normalized state by early 2026 [37]. Key Indicators to Monitor - Important indicators to watch in the later stages of a bull market include: 1. Market valuation trends [28]. 2. The liquidity environment, which has been influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [40]. 3. The fundamental performance of listed companies, which has shown positive growth but may not be sustainable [44]. Summary - The market is experiencing typical bull market fluctuations, with the current phase indicating a potential late-stage environment. Investors are advised to remain vigilant for key signals related to market valuation, liquidity, and company fundamentals while maintaining a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies [53].