Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the economic and financial data for June 2025, which serves as a "report card" for the effectiveness of policies in the first half of the year and a "decision anchor" for policy - setting in the second half. It predicts various economic indicators and analyzes the factors influencing these indicators [1][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Added Value - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 6.0%. The production PMI in June rose 0.3 pct to 51.0%, entering the expansion range, and the procurement volume index increased significantly. High - frequency data shows that the operating rate of key industries mostly rebounded, indicating stable and positive production operations [2][14][21]. 2. Social Retail Sales - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 6.2%. The service industry PMI in June slightly declined to 50.1% but remained in the expansion range. Real - estate sales were weak, pressuring post - real - estate cycle consumption. Automobile sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the "trade - in" policy is expected to further release consumption potential [3][25][28]. 3. Fixed - Asset Investment - Expected cumulative year - on - year growth in June is 3.7%. In infrastructure, the cumulative year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment may rebound, with the construction industry PMI rising to 52.8%, the asphalt plant operating rate increasing, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerating. In real estate, investment growth remained weak, with new home sales improving month - on - month but still weak year - on - year, and land transaction area below the seasonal level. In manufacturing, investment may remain basically flat, with domestic demand improving but external demand weak, and the business expectation index declining [4][30][35]. 4. Trade 4.1 Exports - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 4.2%. The Geneva Agreement may boost exports to the US in June, and exports to Europe are expected to remain stable. However, the global manufacturing PMI continued to decline and remained in the contraction range, indicating weak external demand overall. The export growth rate is expected to decline slightly [37][40]. 4.2 Imports - Expected year - on - year growth in June is - 1.0%. Import demand rebounded after the tariff suspension in May and further increased in June. Although the export container price increased in June, the import price remained low. The import growth rate is expected to rise slightly from a low level [5][45]. 5. Inflation 5.1 CPI - Expected year - on - year growth in June is 0.04%. In June, pork prices fluctuated within a narrow range, while vegetable prices rebounded. Considering the increase in oil prices and the low - base effect, the CPI year - on - year may turn positive [6][50][51]. 5.2 PPI - Expected year - on - year growth in June is - 3.0%. In June, most commodity prices rebounded, including industrial products, crude oil, natural gas, and non - ferrous metals, which had a positive impact on the PPI. The year - on - year decline in PPI is expected to narrow marginally [54][55]. 6. GDP - Expected year - on - year growth in the second quarter is 5.3%. Since the second quarter, the economy and finance have shown a moderate recovery. The manufacturing PMI from April to June was in the contraction range, and most economic indicators declined in May except for social retail sales. Considering the historical pattern of GDP seasonally - adjusted quarter - on - quarter decline in the second quarter, the economic growth in the second quarter is expected to decline slightly quarter - on - quarter but reach about 5.3% year - on - year [7][64]. 7. Social Financing and Credit 7.1 Credit - Expected new credit in June is 232 billion yuan. June is a traditional large - credit month, but considering the low and stable bill rates, the probability of a significant and unexpected increase in new credit is low. The report also analyzes the new credit in different sectors, including enterprises, residents, bill financing, and non - bank loans [8][67][80]. 7.2 Social Financing - Expected new social financing in June is 4.1 trillion yuan, with the corresponding year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock expected to be 8.9%. The report analyzes the components of new social financing, including government bond net financing, corporate bond net financing, and non - standard financing [8][82][90].