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电商出清期:效率拼杀、现金为王
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 12:23
Core Viewpoint - The era of rapid expansion in the e-commerce industry has ended, with a noticeable decline in consumer enthusiasm and a shift towards a more mature consumption society [2][3]. E-commerce Industry Trends - The overall transaction volume during this year's Double Eleven reached nearly 1.7 trillion, but the excitement around such events has diminished [2]. - E-commerce penetration in China is currently at 25% for the first nine months of the year, significantly lower than the predicted 40% for the next five years [3]. - The ceiling for e-commerce penetration is projected to be 27.6% in 2023 and drop to 26.8% in 2024, indicating a stagnation in growth [3]. Competitive Landscape - The competition among platforms has intensified, with companies now focusing on retaining existing users rather than acquiring new ones [4]. - Platforms are increasingly competing for user engagement time, as even a minute more can lead to increased purchasing intent [5]. - The current state of competition is characterized by platforms entering each other's domains, leading to a homogenization of supply and a challenging growth environment [6][8]. Strategic Shifts - The focus has shifted from aggressive expansion to enhancing operational efficiency and matching supply with demand [9][10]. - Long-term strategies are essential for navigating market competition, emphasizing the importance of infrastructure and stability over short-term gains [11][15]. - Cash reserves are becoming critical, with companies needing to demonstrate effective spending efficiency rather than just having cash on hand [17][23]. Market Dynamics - The ongoing "instant retail war" initiated by JD.com, with Alibaba and Meituan following suit, highlights the cash-intensive nature of current competition [19][20]. - Meituan's market share has dropped from around 70% to 50%, with Alibaba and JD.com capturing the lost share [20][21]. - The future of the e-commerce landscape remains uncertain, with companies needing to leverage their cash reserves effectively to survive the ongoing competition [22][26].