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招商轮船(601872):25Q2归母净利同比+12%至12.6亿 旺季在即、正规VLCC供需催化向上 重申“强烈推荐”评级
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-31 00:29
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in Q2, particularly in the oil transportation segment, with expectations for improved performance in the latter half of the year [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 was 12.58 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, while Q2 revenue was 6.99 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year and a 24.9% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 2.12 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year, with Q2 net profit at 1.26 billion, up 12.3% year-on-year and 45.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Non-recurring net profit for H1 was 1.91 billion, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, with Q2 at 1.05 billion, down 3% year-on-year but up 23.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company declared a cash dividend of 0.7 per 10 shares, with cash dividends and buybacks accounting for 41.2% of net profit [1]. Oil Transportation Segment - In Q2, oil transportation revenue was 2.31 billion, down 4.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 0.81 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year and a significant increase of 65.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The VLCC fleet outperformed the industry, benefiting from a strong market driven by OPEC's production increase and tightening sanctions on non-compliant trade [1][2]. - The TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for the company's fleet continued to exceed market indices, with expectations for a strong Q4 due to seasonal demand [2]. Bulk Shipping and Container Shipping - Bulk shipping revenue for Q2 was 2.02 billion, down 2% year-on-year, with net profit at 0.26 billion, down 40.6% year-on-year but up 65.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company’s fleet outperformed market indices in various categories, with expectations for steady growth in bulk shipping driven by increased demand for commodities [3]. - Container shipping revenue for Q2 was 1.88 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year, with net profit at 0.29 billion, up 115.4% year-on-year but down 12.5% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a strong recommendation based on current valuation and the expected upward trend in the oil transportation market and stable growth in bulk shipping [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 6.48 billion, 7.66 billion, and 8.18 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7, and PB ratios of 1.2, 1.1, and 1.0 [3].