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招商轮船(601872):25Q2归母净利同比+12%至12.6亿 旺季在即、正规VLCC供需催化向上 重申“强烈推荐”评级
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-31 00:29
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in Q2, particularly in the oil transportation segment, with expectations for improved performance in the latter half of the year [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 was 12.58 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, while Q2 revenue was 6.99 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year and a 24.9% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 2.12 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year, with Q2 net profit at 1.26 billion, up 12.3% year-on-year and 45.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Non-recurring net profit for H1 was 1.91 billion, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, with Q2 at 1.05 billion, down 3% year-on-year but up 23.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company declared a cash dividend of 0.7 per 10 shares, with cash dividends and buybacks accounting for 41.2% of net profit [1]. Oil Transportation Segment - In Q2, oil transportation revenue was 2.31 billion, down 4.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 0.81 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year and a significant increase of 65.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The VLCC fleet outperformed the industry, benefiting from a strong market driven by OPEC's production increase and tightening sanctions on non-compliant trade [1][2]. - The TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for the company's fleet continued to exceed market indices, with expectations for a strong Q4 due to seasonal demand [2]. Bulk Shipping and Container Shipping - Bulk shipping revenue for Q2 was 2.02 billion, down 2% year-on-year, with net profit at 0.26 billion, down 40.6% year-on-year but up 65.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company’s fleet outperformed market indices in various categories, with expectations for steady growth in bulk shipping driven by increased demand for commodities [3]. - Container shipping revenue for Q2 was 1.88 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year, with net profit at 0.29 billion, up 115.4% year-on-year but down 12.5% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a strong recommendation based on current valuation and the expected upward trend in the oil transportation market and stable growth in bulk shipping [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 6.48 billion, 7.66 billion, and 8.18 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7, and PB ratios of 1.2, 1.1, and 1.0 [3].
招商轮船(601872):25Q1归母净利同比-37%至8.7亿 VLCC正规市场供需催化向上 重申“强烈推荐”评级
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-01 02:28
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating challenges in the oil transportation and shipping sectors, while also highlighting potential recovery in the VLCC market due to supply constraints and regulatory impacts on non-compliant trade [1][2][3][4] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 5.6 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was 870 million yuan, a decrease of 37.1% year-on-year and 50.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Q1 2025 non-recurring net profit was 850 million yuan, down 37.2% year-on-year and 50.6% quarter-on-quarter [2] Oil Transportation Sector - Q1 oil transportation revenue was 2.14 billion yuan, down 16.3% year-on-year, with net profit at 490 million yuan, a decline of 44% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter [2] - VLCC fleet performance outperformed indices, with 50% of operational days locked in for Q2, providing a solid foundation for future earnings [2] - The second quarter is expected to see strong fluctuations in VLCC rates due to OPEC+ production increases and tightening sanctions on Iranian oil [2][3] Market Dynamics - The impact of tariffs and the "301 port tax" on oil transportation fundamentals is limited, with U.S. crude exports to China representing only 0.4% of global oil shipping volume [3] - The ongoing tightening of sanctions on non-compliant trade is expected to benefit the formal market supply-demand dynamics [3] Shipping Segments Performance - Container shipping revenue for Q1 was 1.14 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, with net profit at 340 million yuan, a significant increase of 222% year-on-year [4] - Bulk shipping revenue for Q1 was 1.68 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, with net profit at 160 million yuan, a decrease of 55% year-on-year [4] - Roll-on/roll-off shipping revenue for Q1 was 400 million yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with net profit at 50 million yuan, a decline of 34% year-on-year [4] Investment Outlook - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 6.48 billion, 7.66 billion, and 8.18 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 6, and 6 times [4] - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 5.3% based on a 40% payout ratio [4]