期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每 日 早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 27 日 0 / 51 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：分化进一步加大 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：情绪仍弱，曲线熊陡 5 | | 蛋白粕：天气影响增加 | 盘面高位震荡 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价底部震荡 | 国内糖价略偏强 6 | | 油脂板块：美国生柴扰动，美豆油震荡上涨 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 价格小幅上涨 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低 | 优质苹果价格坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：钢厂继续检修，钢价压力仍存 14 | | --- | | 双焦：波动较大，但不构成趋势 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：锰矿扰动存不确定性，多单减持 16 | | 金银：多空因素共存，预计维持高位震荡 18 | | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Wednesday saw continued rises in stock index futures, with the overall market showing an upward trend driven by price - rising themes. The bond market was affected by real - estate policies and showed a complex short - term trend but remained optimistic in the medium - term. In the agricultural products market, factors such as weather and production forecasts influenced prices. The black metal market was affected by policies and demand recovery, with steel prices expected to oscillate. The non - ferrous metal market was influenced by macro and geopolitical factors, with prices showing different trends. The shipping and carbon emission markets were affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The energy and chemical market was affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations, with prices fluctuating [20][24][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the stock index continued to rise, with small - cap indexes performing better. Price - rising themes supported the market, and trading volume steadily increased. The trading strategies included going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads [20][21][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai was a negative factor for the bond market. In the short - term, the bond market may fluctuate, but in the medium - term, the outlook is relatively optimistic. The trading strategies included a neutral - to - bullish approach for single - side trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal indexes rose. Weather disturbances in the producing areas affected crop yields, and the domestic soybean market was volatile. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [27][28]. - **Sugar**: ICE and London sugar prices were volatile. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, and India's sugar production increase was adjusted downward. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategies included waiting for the international sugar price to break through the previous high, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting put options in the short - term [30][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly. Malaysia's palm oil exports and production decreased in February. The domestic oil inventory was at a moderately high level, and the market was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation, considering reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and waiting and seeing for options [36][37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: CBOT corn prices rose. The domestic corn market had stable prices in the northeast and falling prices in the north - central region. The inventory situation was complex, and the futures price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included a long - on - dip approach for the outer - market 05 corn, short - selling the 05 corn on rallies, and widening the 05 corn - starch spread [40][41][42]. - **Hogs**: Hog prices were stable overall, with supply pressure remaining. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [43][45]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were stable, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the pk605 - P - 7800 option [47][48][49]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices were stable to slightly falling after the holiday. The trading strategies included short - selling the June contract on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [50][51][52]. - **Apples**: Apple inventory decreased, and high - quality apple prices were firm. The 5 - month contract price was expected to be strong. The trading strategies included going long on dips for the 5 - month contract, long 5 short 10 for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The outer - market cotton price rose. The global cotton supply - demand situation was relatively tight, and the domestic cotton price was expected to rise. The trading strategies included going long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices oscillated at night. After the holiday, the steel inventory increased, and the demand recovery was uncertain. The trading strategies included oscillating trends, shorting the coil - coal ratio on rallies, and waiting and seeing for options [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Australian coking coal prices were inverted, and port coke inventory decreased. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production. The trading strategies included going long on dips for coking coal, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [61][62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices fell slightly at night. The supply was abundant, and the demand might decline. The trading strategies included a weakening trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys was strongly supported. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: London gold and silver prices rose. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level. The prices of gold and silver were expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options or using a bull call spread strategy [71][72][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium prices oscillated. Geopolitical and macro factors supported precious metals. The trading strategies included going long on platinum on dips, waiting and seeing for palladium, and long platinum short palladium for arbitrage [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The macro environment was favorable for copper consumption, but inventory increases limited the upside. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [79][80]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of northern capacity. The trading strategies included a short - term oscillating - to - strong trend [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price was expected to oscillate strongly. NVIDIA's performance boosted the market, and the supply - demand relationship was supportive. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price was expected to oscillate strongly following the aluminum price. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [88]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was expected to be bought on dips after a correction. The macro and fundamental factors influenced the price. The trading strategies included buying on dips after a correction, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [91][92]. - **Lead**: The lead price was expected to oscillate within a range. The market was affected by inventory and demand. The trading strategies included going long on dips with light positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying deep out - of - the - money call options [93][94]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price was dominated by macro factors. Indonesian policies and demand were the focus. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [96][98]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price followed the nickel price. The cost was supportive. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage [99][100]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price was affected by the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of short - term long positions [101][102]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market was bearish fundamentally. Attention should be paid to spot transactions. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [104][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price was likely to rise due to supply disruptions. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [107][110]. - **Tin**: The tin price was expected to be strong. NVIDIA's performance boosted demand, and supply factors needed attention. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for options [111][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate of container shipping decreased. The market was affected by the Iran situation and seasonal factors. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation and waiting and seeing [114][115]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The BDI index rose. The market was influenced by demand recovery and geopolitical factors. In the long - term, the supply and demand situation needed attention. The trading strategies included a positive short - term trend [116][117]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market had sporadic transactions, and the EU carbon market was affected by policies and public opinion. The carbon price in China was expected to be supported in the short - term, and the EU carbon market was in a tight supply situation. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [121][122]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ might slightly increase production in April. The oil price was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [124][125]. - **Asphalt**: The demand for asphalt had not recovered, and the supply was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on the BU2606 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil price was affected by supply and geopolitical factors. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend, going long on the FU2605 contract on dips, and waiting and seeing for options [129][131][132]. - **LPG**: The LPG outer - market was strong. The domestic market was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [133][136]. - **Natural Gas**: The natural gas market was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The demand risk decreased, but the supply risk remained. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the US HH second - quarter contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [137][138][139]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices were expected to oscillate. The supply - demand situation was gradually improving. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [141][142]. - **BZ & EB**: The overseas supply of benzene and styrene was in a vacuum period. The domestic supply was stable. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, reverse arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [143][144][145]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market had obvious inventory - building pressure. The supply - demand structure was improving, but the inventory was increasing. The trading strategies included range - oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [146][149]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, narrowing the processing fee on rallies for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [150][151]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips was expected to be tight. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: Some propylene supply returned. The market was stable with a weakening trend. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [155][156]. - **Plastic PP**: The PPI of plastic products declined for consecutive months. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the L 2605 contract, short - selling the PP 2605 contract on a small scale, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [157][158]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price oscillated. The supply pressure was still there, and the demand was improving. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [160][161]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillated weakly. The supply was high, and the demand was low. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend [163][164]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillated strongly. The supply was high, and the demand was resilient. The trading strategies included going long on dips, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [166][169][170]. - **Glass**: The glass price oscillated strongly, but the fundamentals were weak. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [171][172]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillated widely. The international and domestic supply - demand situations were complex. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend [174]. - **Urea**: Urea factories were reluctant to sell. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on dips, paying attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and shorting put options on corrections [176][177]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory of pulp restricted the rebound. The market was in a supply - surplus situation. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the SP2605 - P - 5250 option [179][182][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The demand for offset printing paper was average. The market rebound was limited. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [184][185]. - **Logs**: The log market had weak supply and demand. The price was affected by supply and demand and cost. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of lightly going long for aggressive investors, and paying attention to the 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The ANRPC had marginal production cuts. The prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the RU 05 contract, going long on the NR 04 contract on opportunities, and holding the RU2605 - RU2609 spread [187][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory build - up of domestic automobiles slowed down. The butadiene rubber price fell. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the BR 04 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [190][192].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the stock market showed a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling. The futures market also had different trends in various products, influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [20][21][25]. - The bond market sentiment was not weak, but the market might become more cautious as the "Two Sessions" approached. The medium - term outlook for the bond market was relatively optimistic [25][26]. - In the agricultural product market, the supply and price trends of different products varied. For example, the supply of protein meal increased, and the price oscillated; the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated [30][35]. - In the black metal market, steel faced post - holiday pressure, while the performance of coking coal and iron ore was affected by factors such as production resumption and supply - demand changes [62][65][71]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals like gold and silver were in high - level oscillations due to macro uncertainties, and other non - ferrous metals also had different price trends influenced by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand [76][79][84]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the container shipping market was in short - term oscillations, the dry bulk freight market showed a positive trend after the holiday, and the carbon price in the domestic market oscillated while the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions [122][124][126]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products were affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand, and cost. For example, crude oil was in high - level oscillations, and asphalt was supported by cost but with weak demand [132][136]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - After the Spring Festival, the stock index rose across the board, but the trading volume was slightly insufficient. The market showed a clear differentiation, with some sectors rising and others falling. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, buy on dips, and consider arbitrage and option strategies [20][21][23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the bond futures contracts of various tenors generally strengthened. The central bank's large - scale net withdrawal of short - term liquidity after the holiday and the approaching of the "Two Sessions" affected the bond market sentiment. The trading strategy was to be neutral - bullish and wait and see for arbitrage [25][26][28]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The supply increased overall, and the price oscillated. The trading strategy was to short at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [30][31]. Sugar - The increase in Indian sugar production was revised down, and the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated. The domestic sugar market was in a bottom - oscillation trend. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options in the short term [32][35][36]. Oilseeds and Oils - The domestic oil market made up for losses and maintained oscillations. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and consider reverse arbitrage for some contracts [38][39][40]. Corn/Corn Starch - The spot price in the production area was stable, and the futures price was in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to buy on dips for the outer - market corn and short lightly on rallies for domestic corn, and consider expanding the spread between corn and starch [41][43]. Live Pigs - The supply increased gradually, and the price continued to decline. The trading strategy was to buy a small amount of the 05 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [44][46]. Peanuts - The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated in a narrow range. The trading strategy was to buy lightly on dips and sell put options [47][48]. Eggs - After the holiday, it entered the off - season, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy was to short the June contract on rallies and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51][52]. Apples - The market performance varied after the year, with the western region performing slightly better than the eastern region. The trading strategy was to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and consider a long - 5 short - 10 arbitrage [54][55][56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamentals changed little, and the cotton price was supported. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [58][59][60]. Black Metals Steel - There was still pressure on steel after the holiday. The trading strategy was to maintain a weak - oscillation trend, hold short positions, and wait and see for arbitrage [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coal mines were gradually resuming production. The trading strategy was to consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [64][65][67]. Iron Ore - The fundamentals continued to weaken, and the ore price was in a weak - running state. The trading strategy was to be bearish and wait and see for arbitrage [70][71]. Ferroalloys - The cost support was strong, and it could be used as a long - position configuration on dips. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [72][73][74]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - The macro uncertainties continued, and the prices were in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions cautiously and consider option strategies [76][79][80]. Platinum and Palladium - Supported by macro and geopolitical factors, platinum could be bought on dips, and palladium could be traded in bands. Consider a long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage [80][81][83]. Copper - Affected by continuous tariff disturbances, the copper price was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the long - term and consider option strategies [84][85]. Alumina - After the decline in the supply - side operating rate, the spot price was supported. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term [86][87]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Tariff disturbances did not change the supply - demand support pattern. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [89][91][92]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - It oscillated with the aluminum price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [93][95]. Zinc - After the correction stabilized, it could be bought on dips. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [96][97]. Lead - It oscillated in a range. The trading strategy was to go long lightly on dips and consider option strategies [99][100]. Nickel - The macro factors dominated the price fluctuations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [101][103][104]. Stainless Steel - Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [106]. Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of large factories. The trading strategy was to rebound in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term [107][108]. Polysilicon - Driven by merger news, it might rebound in the short - term, and the spot price should be focused on in the medium - term [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - The demand was good, and the price was at a high level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [113][115]. Tin - Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [118][120]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - It was mainly in short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening - cabin price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [121][122][124]. Dry Bulk Freight - After the holiday, the demand recovery drove the spot price to improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US Maritime Action Plan. The trading strategy was to wait and see [124][125][126]. Carbon Emissions - The domestic carbon price oscillated, and the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions. The trading strategy was to wait and see [126][127][128]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The API inventory increased more than expected. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider the bullish spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options [132][133]. Asphalt - The cost supported the spot price, but the rigid demand had not recovered. The trading strategy was to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [134][136][137]. Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur supply increased, and the low - sulfur price strengthened in the near - term. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and wait and see for options [139][140][141]. LPG - It was still dominated by geopolitical factors. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [142]. Natural Gas - It was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The trading strategy was to hold short positions on the HH second - quarter contract and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [145][146][147]. PX & PTA - Driven by cost. The trading strategy was to hold long positions, consider positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [149][150]. BZ & EB - There was a supply vacuum in the overseas market. The trading strategy was to oscillate and consider reverse arbitrage [151][152]. Ethylene Glycol - There was obvious inventory - accumulation pressure. The trading strategy was to oscillate in a range and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [154][157]. Short - Staple Fiber - The polyester raw materials strengthened. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price, consider narrowing the processing fee on rallies, and wait and see for options [158]. Bottle Chips - The supply was expected to be tight. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [160][162]. Propylene - The supply - demand support was acceptable. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [163]. Plastic PP - The L plastic was bullish on the trend, and the PP was to wait and see. The trading strategy was to go long on the L 2605 contract on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [165][166]. Caustic Soda - The price was weakening. The trading strategy was to wait and see [168][169]. PVC - It was mainly in oscillations. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [170][173]. Soda Ash - The price was bullish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [174][175]. Glass - The price was bearish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bearish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [176][178]. Methanol - It was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to go long on dips, consider a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on corrections [179][180]. Urea - It was rising strongly. The trading strategy was to go long cautiously and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [182][183]. Pulp - The US dollar quotation increased, but the high inventory suppressed the rebound. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and consider option strategies [184][185][187]. Offset Printing Paper - The inventory was high, and the market rebound was limited. The trading strategy was to short on rallies and consider option strategies [188][189]. Logs - The supply and demand were both weak. The trading strategy was to wait and see and consider a 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage [190][192][193]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The gross profit of concentrated latex decreased for consecutive months. The trading strategy was to go long on the RU 05 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [194][196][197]. Butadiene Rubber - The growth rate of butadiene production slowed down. The trading strategy was to short the BR 04 contract lightly and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [198][200][201].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 12 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：成交下降波动收窄 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：节前情绪延续偏暖 4 | | 蛋白粕：盘面减仓力度增加 | 价格大幅上涨 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：美糖跌破下方支撑 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：假期临近震荡回落，整体维持宽幅震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体支撑 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 11 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 12 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 13 | | 钢材：需求延续下滑，钢价震荡承压 14 | | --- | | 双焦：春节临近煤矿陆续放假，年后需关注国内外煤炭市场变化 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：长假临近，多单逢高止盈 16 | | 金银： 非农数据现分歧 市场博弈转 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, before the Spring Festival, stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly to accumulate strength for further upward movement, and long - term long positions in stock index futures should be held [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Before the Spring Festival, downstream demand is still weak, market participation has declined, and copper, aluminum, and alumina prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment in the market, zinc prices are expected to decline and then stabilize, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Market sentiment has improved. Indonesia's ESDM has issued a nickel ore RKAB quota of 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons in 2026, and the approval of nickel ore quotas has been slow recently, increasing concerns about future nickel ore supply. In the short - term, nickel prices are expected to be strong, but are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the medium - to long - term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1]. - The raw material end of stainless steel still has support, and with the improvement of macro - sentiment, stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term and hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - In the short - term, macro - negative factors have been exhausted, but the volatility of tin prices is still large. In the short - term, investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - The weak US dollar index, uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and China's continuous gold purchases for 15 months support precious metal prices. However, before the Spring Festival, market funds may be cautious, and precious metals are expected to stabilize and oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The weak US dollar index supports platinum and palladium prices, but the US Trade Representative's discussion of an agreement on critical minerals may cause fluctuations in platinum and palladium prices, so they are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [1]. - In the cement industry, production has increased in the Northwest and decreased in the Southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has declined [1]. - In the new energy vehicle industry, it is the off - season, but energy storage demand is strong, and there is a rush to export batteries. The price has risen significantly and there is a need for a correction [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the expectation is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to exit long positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - For iron ore, there is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this level [1]. - For silicon iron and glass, the reality is weak, but the expectation is strong. Energy consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1]. - Soda ash follows glass, and its medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal and coke, during the off - season of the black industry, before the Spring Festival, the inventory replenishment is almost over. The market pays more attention to capital sentiment. It is recommended to cash in on the spot when the market rises and establish cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. - For palm oil, the MPOB monthly report data has a positive expected difference, but the subsequent fundamentals still have pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [1]. - For soybean oil, the cost is supported by the strong US soybean market. There is no abnormal weather in South America, and it is recommended to pay more attention to Sino - US soybean trade trends. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - For rapeseed oil, after the anti - dumping final ruling on Canadian rapeseed, the tariff is expected to be adjusted to about 15% after March, and the supply contradiction is expected to ease [1]. - For cotton, there is support but no driving force in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - For sugar, there is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term [1]. - For corn, before the Spring Festival, trading is coming to an end, and the price fluctuation is limited. After the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, policy - grain release, import arrivals, and new - season wheat growth. It is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - For soybeans, the increase in US soybean export expectations boosts the US market, but the decline in Brazilian discounts partially offsets the impact. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent selling pressure of Brazilian discounts and consider going long on M2609 at a low level [1]. - For pulp, there are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side weakens after inventory replenishment. It is recommended to wait and see when the commodity sentiment fluctuates significantly [1]. - For logs, the spot price has risen, the arrival volume in February is expected to decline, and the external quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - For live pigs, the spot price is gradually stabilizing, demand is supported, but the production capacity has not been fully released [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cool down, and the commodity market sentiment has turned bearish. In the short - term, it follows crude oil [1]. - For asphalt, the supply of raw material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, the profit is high, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction may be falsified [1]. - For natural rubber, the raw material cost has strong support, the market sentiment has turned bearish, the downstream demand before the Spring Festival has weakened, and the basis has widened to a high level [1]. - For BR rubber, the cost of butadiene has strong support, private cis - butadiene rubber plants may reduce production due to losses, but the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is a potential negative factor. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - For PTA, the PX - mixed xylene spread has narrowed, PX maintains fundamental resilience, the downstream PTA industry is strong, and the domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high with no planned production cuts during the Spring Festival and no new capacity throughout the year [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the production profit of naphtha cracking has declined, several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units in February, and the price is waiting at a low level [1]. - For pure benzene, the inventory is high and the import demand is weak. The Asia - US spread is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation are recovering, supported by supply tightening, unexpected Middle East shutdowns, surging export demand, and rising costs [1]. - For urea, the export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand has limited upside, but there is anti - involution and cost support [1]. - For methanol, it is affected by the situation in Iran, with expected import reduction, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. The downstream MTO leading device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude restarted on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. Inland transportation costs have risen due to cold air, and northwest enterprises have large inventory - clearing pressure and are selling at reduced prices [2]. - For crude oil, it oscillates strongly, the price has returned to a reasonable range, and the pre - festival inventory replenishment has ended, with flat demand during the holiday [2]. - For PVC, there is less global production in 2026, the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the rush to export has slowed down [2]. - For liquid chlorine, the macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is trading fundamentals again, the fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is at a low level, the price of liquid chlorine has weakened, and the spot price has risen slightly [2]. - For LPG, the CP price in February has risen, the purchase in March is still relatively tight, the short - term risk premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has declined, the driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, the market expectation is weakening, the basis is expected to widen, the domestic PDH operating rate has declined, the profit is expected to recover seasonally, and the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. The ports are continuously reducing inventory, but the domestic civil gas is sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [2]. - For container shipping, the pre - festival freight rate has peaked and declined, airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights, and airlines expect to stop the price decline and raise prices strongly after the off - season in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures: Short - term strong oscillation before the Spring Festival, long - term long positions held [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central bank warns of interest rate risks, attention on Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper, aluminum, alumina: Oscillation due to weak downstream demand and increased risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Zinc: Cost center stabilizes, price expected to decline and then stabilize, wait - and - see recommended [1]. - Nickel: Short - term strong due to supply concerns and improved macro - sentiment, long - term suppression from high inventory [1]. - Stainless steel: Raw material support and improved macro - sentiment, short - term long at low prices, light positions during holiday [1]. - Tin: High short - term volatility, focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - Precious metals: Supported by various factors, but cautious market funds before Spring Festival, short - term stable oscillation [1]. - Platinum and palladium: Supported by weak US dollar, but agreement discussion may cause fluctuations, short - term wide - range fluctuation [1]. New energy and related industries - Polysilicon and organic silicon: December production decline [1]. - New energy vehicles: Off - season, but strong energy storage demand and battery export rush, price correction needed [1]. Building materials - Cement: Production increase in Northwest and decrease in Southwest [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils: Strong expectation but weak spot, insufficient upward momentum, exit long positions and do cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - Iron ore: Upward pressure, not recommended to chase long [1]. - Silicon iron and glass: Weak reality, strong expectation, supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, medium - term supply - demand relaxation, price under pressure [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Off - season, focus on capital sentiment, cash in on spot when rising and do cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: MPOB report has positive difference, but subsequent fundamentals have pressure, wait - and - see before Spring Festival [1]. - Soybean oil: Cost supported by US soybeans, no abnormal South American weather, short - term oscillation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Anti - dumping ruling, supply contradiction expected to ease [1]. - Cotton: Short - term support but no driving force, attention on future policies and market conditions [1]. - Sugar: Global surplus, domestic new - crop supply increase, short - seller consensus, cost support if price falls, lack of short - term driving force [1]. - Corn: Pre - festival trading end, post - festival attention on selling pressure, policies, and wheat growth, range oscillation [1]. - Soybeans: US export boost, Brazilian discount impact, domestic market weaker, consider long on M2609 at low level [1]. Forest products - Pulp: Supply disturbances, demand weakens after inventory replenishment, wait - and - see during significant commodity sentiment fluctuations [1]. - Logs: Spot price rise, expected decline in February arrivals and rise in external quotation, upward driving force for futures [1]. Livestock - Live pigs: Spot price stabilizing, demand support, production capacity not fully released [1]. Energy and chemicals - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspension, Middle East geopolitical cooling, short - term follows crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: Sufficient raw material supply, high profit, demand falsification possibility [1]. - Natural rubber: Cost support, bearish market sentiment, weak pre - festival downstream demand, widened basis [1]. - BR rubber: Butadiene cost support, plant production reduction expectation, high inventory risk, short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term upward expectation [1]. - PTA: PX spread narrowing, PX resilience, strong downstream industry, high production and no new capacity [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Naphtha cracking profit decline, Korean producers maintain operating rate, low - price waiting [1]. - Pure benzene: High inventory, weak import demand, Asia - US spread not enough for arbitrage, styrene recovery [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment easing, limited domestic upside, anti - involution and cost support [1]. - Methanol: Affected by Iran, import reduction expected, downstream negative feedback, device changes, Iran situation and inland inventory - clearing [2]. - Crude oil: Strong oscillation, price in reasonable range, pre - festival inventory replenishment end, flat holiday demand [2]. - PVC: Future optimism with capacity elimination, current poor fundamentals, slowed export rush [2]. - Liquid chlorine: Macro - sentiment subsides, trading fundamentals, weak fundamentals, low price, liquid chlorine weakening, spot rise [2]. - LPG: Rising CP price, tight March purchase, declining risk premium, weakening expectation, basis widening, bearish demand, port inventory reduction and domestic gas sufficiency [2]. Shipping - Container shipping: Pre - festival freight rate decline, cautious airline resumption, expected post - off - season price increase [2].

Summary of the Transportation and Logistics Industry Research Report Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Transportation and Logistics, specifically the shipping sector - **Key Metrics**: - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rate at $102,897/day, down 11.0% week-over-week, up 213.2% year-over-year - MR (Medium Range) freight rate at $25,025/day, down 9.2% week-over-week, up 52.4% year-over-year - SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) for routes to the US West Coast, Europe, and Southeast Asia down 5.0%, 4.8%, and 3.7% respectively week-over-week - BDI (Baltic Dry Index) up 14.9% week-over-week, BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) up 19.0%, BSI (Baltic Supramax Index) up 5.8% [4][5][6] Core Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The oil shipping cycle is expected to remain "higher for longer" due to structural changes in demand from older vessels to compliant fleets following tightened sanctions from Europe and the US [5][6] - **Market Concentration**: The VLCC market is traditionally fragmented, with the top 10 companies holding a 44.1% market share. However, recent transactions and long-term charters have led to increased concentration, particularly with new entrants like Sinokor, which has acquired over 30 VLCCs [6] - **Asset Prices**: Second-hand VLCC prices have increased, with 10-year and 15-year-old vessels rising by 11.1% and 16.1% respectively since the beginning of the year [6] - **Charter Rates**: Frontline announced a one-year charter for 7 VLCCs at $76,900/day, exceeding the Clarkson quote of $71,750/day [6] Company Recommendations - **Companies to Watch**: - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (中远海能-A) with a target price of 13.50 and P/E ratios of 11.1 for 2026E and 19.2 for 2027E - China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商南油-A) with a target price of 3.70 and P/E ratios of 10.8 for 2026E and 16.6 for 2027E - Zhonggu Logistics (中谷物流-A) with a target price of 13.87 and P/E ratios of 10.6 for 2026E and 9.7 for 2027E - Seaspan Corporation (海丰国际-H) with a target price of 36.00 and P/E ratios of 9.1 for 2026E and 10.3 for 2027E [4][7] Risks - **Geopolitical Risks**: Changes in geopolitical conditions could impact the shipping industry significantly - **Economic Risks**: A substantial slowdown in global economic growth poses a risk to shipping demand [8] Additional Insights - **Valuation and Outlook**: The report maintains its profit forecasts and target prices for covered companies, indicating a positive outlook for the shipping sector [7] - **Market Trends**: The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics in the shipping market, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments and market concentration trends [5][6]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 10 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：指数多头排列添信心 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：债市继续走强，止盈有所增多 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 粕类震荡运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价上涨 | 预计国内价格维持高位 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽幅震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求延续下滑 钢价震荡运行 13 | | --- | | 双焦：煤矿陆续放假，现货成交趋于冷清 13 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：长假临近，多单逢高止盈 15 | | 金银：市场情绪企稳 金银回暖 17 | | --- | | 铂钯： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [7] Core Views - The report highlights three main investment themes for February: aviation, oil shipping, and road transportation, driven by the Spring Festival travel peak and geopolitical factors [1][2][3] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on major airlines [1][2] - Oil shipping is anticipated to see price increases due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply [1][3] - The road transportation sector is viewed as a stable dividend asset amid market volatility, with specific recommendations for certain stocks [1][5] Aviation - The passenger load factor for 2025 is projected to rise to 85.1%, with ticket prices showing a mixed trend [2][14] - The Spring Festival is expected to catalyze stock price movements, with a forecast of 95 million passengers during the travel period, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [16][28] - The report notes that fuel price increases are manageable, as fuel surcharges can cover most cost increases [20][21] Oil Shipping - In January, oil shipping rates continued to strengthen due to increased demand from geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran [3][34] - The report indicates that oil shipping rates are expected to rise further post-Spring Festival, despite a potential short-term dip during the holiday season [34][36] Logistics - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in volume growth, while prices remain stable [4] - There are signs of recovery in the hazardous materials logistics sector, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the upstream chemical industry [4] Road Transportation - The road transportation sector is characterized by high demand for both passenger and freight services, with a notable increase in short-distance travel during the Spring Festival [5][28] - The report recommends specific stocks in the road sector, highlighting their potential for stable returns amid market fluctuations [1][5] Airport Operations - The report emphasizes the steady growth in passenger throughput at listed airports, with international routes contributing significantly to this growth [28] - It also notes that new capacity coming online may impact profitability, particularly for airports undergoing capital expenditure cycles [28][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].