期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 9 日 0 / 49 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：股指分化持续 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：国内"再通胀"叙事稍有生变 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力仍存 盘面整体回落 5 | | --- | | 白糖：大宗商品波动加大，国内外糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂整体震荡运行 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米持续拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：供应压力仍存 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 11 | | 钢材：钢材转向累库，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：市场情绪降温，注意回调风险 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：市场情绪整体降温，短期震荡运行 15 | | 金银：彭博指数开启调整 | 金银宽幅震荡 16 | | --- | --- | | 铂钯：BCOM | 调整权重 ...

量刻三(Z0019656) 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月8日 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 欢迎关注微信公众号 广发期货EDP | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 合约 | 观点 | | | | ゙慎 塑料 | NI2602 12605 | 多单减仓 震荡偏强 | | | | 铁矿石 | 12605 | 短多尝试 | | | | 豆粕 | M2605 | 農荡偏强 | | | | 白银 | AG2604 | 逢低买入 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2603 | | 节后开门红行情伴随显著放量,突破前高力量强, | | | 股指 | IH2603 | 主线结构集中,股指表现分化 | 推荐继续持有牛市价差组合,逢低可再构建备兑组 | | | | IC2603 IM2603 | | 合,做好组合风险控制,避免单边重仓追高。品种 上IC成分较为契合主线结构,表现更强。 | | | | ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：修复动能偏弱 4 | 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 8 日 0 / 48 | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 美豆整体承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价收涨，国内糖价略强 5 | | 油脂板块：商品情绪回暖，油脂有所上涨 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力仍存 现货整体震荡 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：市场情绪好转，钢价震荡走强 13 | | --- | | 双焦：波动剧烈，多单建议逐步止盈 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需边际改善预期叠加成本推动，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：彭博指数开启调整 金银高位震荡 16 | | | --- | --- | | 铂钯：BCOM | 调整权 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 7 日 0 / 49 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 钢材：基本面边际转弱，钢价区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：延续宽幅震荡 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：供需边际改善预期叠加成本推动，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：风偏上行，债市趋弱 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力仍存 美豆继续回落 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价小幅上涨，国内糖价略偏强 5 | | 油脂板块：商品情绪回暖，油脂有所上涨 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：供应压力仍存 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 11 | | 金银：地缘主导 短期内或偏强震荡 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：资金做多情绪回暖 铂钯重归上行通道 17 | ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 5 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：成本端存在较大考验 粕类整体压力明显 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大跌，国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：地缘扰动再起，油脂波动增加 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，小麦开始拍卖 8 | | 生猪：出栏压力有所好转，现货阶段性回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般，蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 铅：供需双弱 铅价区间震荡 22 | | --- | | 镍：配额削减预期助力镍价强势上涨 23 | | 不锈钢：跟随镍价偏强运行 24 | | 工业硅：短期反弹，中期逢高沽空 24 | | 多晶硅：长期偏强，短期注意风险管理 25 | | 碳酸锂：高位运行，谨慎操作 25 | | 锡：地缘政治动荡加剧，锡价或波动加剧 26 | | | | | 原油：地缘扰动频繁，油价波动加剧 29 | | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend at the end of the year. Various factors such as policy, supply - demand, and geopolitical situation affect different sectors. For example, the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the end of the year due to sector rotation; the bond market sentiment is average with limited new information and is waiting for the release of official PMI data; different commodity futures also show different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [21][24]. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market closes steadily. The index shows a volatile upward trend due to sector rotation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a bull spread for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Futures**: The performance at the close is differentiated. The market is waiting for the official PMI data. It is recommended to hold short positions in TS and TF lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is still supply pressure, and the market shows a small - scale shock. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short straddle strategy for options [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price drops sharply, and the domestic price follows weakly. It is expected to oscillate near the current platform. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival, go short after the rebound, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price rises, but the futures price falls from a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts, narrow the 03 corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure decreases, and the spot price continues to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price shows a narrow - range shock. It is recommended that the 05 contract oscillates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [47]. - **Eggs**: The demand slightly recovers, but the price drops. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term range, go long on the 1 contract and short on the 10 contract for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended that the US cotton oscillates in the range, the Zhengzhou cotton oscillates strongly with a possible short - term callback risk, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [60]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material replenishment starts, and the steel price maintains a range - bound shock. It is recommended to maintain the shock trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread, and wait and see for options [62][63]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They oscillate and wait for new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see mainly or go long on dips lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is repeated, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term [69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve, and the cost drives the price. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [72]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: They oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Pay attention to position management before the New Year's Day holiday. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][81][82]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation intensifies. It is recommended to control the position, go long on dips in the long - term, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83]. - **Alumina**: It oscillates mainly after the convergence of the warehouse receipt registration profit. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot delivery products and shorting futures, and wait and see for options [91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [94]. - **Zinc**: Control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [96]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the impact of funds on the price and control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [99]. - **Nickel**: The news of Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas boosts the price. It is recommended to treat it as an upward trend before a significant inventory build - up, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101][102]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. It is recommended to follow the nickel price to go long and wait and see for arbitrage [105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It rebounds in the short - term and goes short on rallies in the medium - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The long - term fundamentals are favorable, but the short - term trading volume shrinks. It is recommended to be cautious, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The subsidy policy boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to control the position and be cautious, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [110]. - **Tin**: Some long - position funds take profits, and the price drops sharply. It is recommended to oscillate widely after the sharp drop and wait and see for options [113]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's price increase slightly exceeds expectations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to take most profits on long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market trading is light at the end of the year, and geopolitical conflicts cause fluctuations. It is recommended to oscillate widely, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [117][118]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The near - end fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak. It is recommended to go short, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [126]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales and cost weaken, and the price drops from a high level. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [132]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene inventory build - up pressure slows down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to oscillate strongly, conduct short - pure benzene and long - styrene arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to oscillate widely in the short - term and weakly in the medium - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [139]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream product profits are differentiated. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell both call and put options [146]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP inventory build - up rate slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions of the L 2605 contract, wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage and wait and see, and sell and hold the PP2605 put option [148][149]. - **PVC**: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to rebound continuously, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152]. - **Methanol**: It rises strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [154][155]. - **Urea**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant policies and wait and see for relevant operations [157][158]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The global economic data continues to improve. It is recommended to go short in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The chemical industry production slowdown continues. It is recommended to hold short positions of the BR 03 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [165].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, important news, and investment strategies for each sector based on the latest data and market conditions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise on Thursday, with all stock index futures closing higher. The market sentiment is optimistic, and it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise in the future. The recommended trading strategy is to go long on a single - side basis and wait for the spread to widen for IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower on Thursday. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and it is recommended to short TS and TF contracts on a single - side basis [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is generally loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to place a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are following. It is expected that the international sugar price will bottom - oscillate slightly stronger, and the domestic sugar price will rise in the short term. It is recommended to sell put options [30][32]. - **Oils and Fats**: There is a technical rebound in the oils and fats sector. It is recommended to go long on palm oil after it stabilizes, and the direction is to short after the rebound. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on a single - side basis [36][37]. - **Hogs**: The supply is generally loose, and the spot price has slightly declined. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and sell a wide - straddle option [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on a single - side basis [44][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the 1 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract [48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [51][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled, and the steel price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating position on a single - side basis, short the coil - coal ratio, and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is fluctuating, and the ore price is weakly operating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the anti - involution expectation, the prices are rebounding in the short term. It is recommended to sell a virtual - value straddle option [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Domestic silver is independently strengthening, and gold is moderately rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are in a wide - range oscillating period of capital game. It is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage and pay attention to position management [72][75]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation is intensifying, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis and pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [76][77]. - **Alumina**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [79][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market is on holiday, and the Shanghai aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis in the medium term [82][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the alloy price is oscillating at a high level with the aluminum price. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing of the AL - AD spread when the aluminum price corrects [84][85]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely due to the interweaving of long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [89][90]. - **Nickel**: As a weak variety in the strong sector, it is experiencing a supplementary rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [93]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is following the nickel price and operating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price rise [94]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is rebounding in the short term and recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on a single - side basis with risk control [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate with caution [101][102]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of marginal improvement in raw material shortage, and the price is adjusting at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [104][106]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still a divergence on the January high point, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly [107][111]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The year - end market is quiet, and geopolitical disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation [113][114]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the raw material contradiction affects the rhythm. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [115][119]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are both weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [121][125]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH has rebounded significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - **LPG**: The price is consolidating at a low level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis for far - month contracts [129][130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester filament production cut is gradually implemented, and the upward price drive is weakening. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 - 5 contracts [131][133]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. It is recommended to expect an interval oscillation and short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage [133][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Taiwanese plant has stopped production due to poor profitability, boosting market buying sentiment. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [139][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [142][143]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: It follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [145][146]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [147][148]. - **Plastic PP**: PE and PP production has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts [149][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [153][157]. - **PVC**: The price is continuously rebounding. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [158][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation and sell virtual - value call options on far - month contracts [160][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation [164][165]. - **Methanol**: It lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at a low price without chasing the rise [166][167]. - **Urea**: The price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [169]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [170][175]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. It is recommended to wait and see or place a small number of long orders [177][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the implementation of the price increase notice remains to be observed. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [181][183]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The production and sales of natural rubber are expected to decline in November. It is recommended to go long on the RU 05 and NR 02 contracts on a single - side basis [184][187]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory accumulation rate of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR 02 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high point [188][191].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 22 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：周初仍有上攻动力 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：降息预期稍有升温，但潜在利空尚存 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力体现 粕类持续回落 6 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 预计短期维持底部震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂呈现震荡偏弱，整体仍缺乏驱动 8 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | 生猪：供应压力体现 现货逐步回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货回落，花生盘面偏弱震荡 10 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 11 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 12 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 棉价震荡偏强 13 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：底部反弹，关注交易逻辑的变化 14 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 16 | | 金银：降息阻碍减少 金稳银强延续 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：交投热情过度 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The shipping industry encompasses various segments including oil tankers, dry bulk, container shipping, LNG, and ro-ro vessels. The oil shipping segment experienced significant growth in Q4 2025, while LNG benefited from increased capacity. The ro-ro fleet saw a decline due to peak deliveries but an increase in volume, and the cruise business provided substantial earnings flexibility, expected to be more pronounced in Q1 2026 [2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Oil Shipping Price Surge**: Since August, oil shipping prices have surged due to increased cargo from Brazil and West Africa, influenced by US-India trade negotiations. Russian export volumes rose, but Western sanctions reduced transport efficiency. OPEC's production increase has been implemented, and India's large-scale purchases of non-Russian oil have shifted the market dynamics [2][6]. - **OPEC's Production Strategy**: OPEC's decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026 does not hinder the growth logic of global compliant oil demand. Even with the delivery of approximately 30 VLCCs in the second half of next year, the market is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance due to aging vessels and sanctions affecting transport efficiency [2][7]. - **Geopolitical Impacts**: The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war could significantly alter oil supply routes. A Russian victory may lead to a return of American oil to Asia, increasing VLCC long-haul demand. Conversely, a Western victory could internalize Russian oil supply, affecting logistics. Additionally, potential conflict between the US and Venezuela could either diminish or enhance Venezuelan oil production, impacting global oil prices [2][9]. - **Dry Bulk Market Dynamics**: The West Simandou iron ore project has limited impact on the VLOC market due to long-term contracts. The transportation of bauxite to the Far East is expected to drive growth in the dry bulk sector [2][10]. Current dry bulk market conditions indicate that prices are not expected to rise significantly in the next two years, as the market has not reached a tight supply-demand balance [2][11]. Additional Important Information - **Fleet Age and Newbuilding Plans**: The company has a detailed newbuilding plan that includes cruise ships, bulk carriers, ro-ro vessels, and LNG carriers, with total capital expenditure nearing 40 billion RMB. The company does not plan large-scale fleet updates but may consider updating some vessels [2][12]. - **Dual-Fuel Vessels**: The company is set to deliver the world's first methanol dual-fuel VLCC by the end of this month, indicating a shift towards more environmentally friendly shipping solutions [2][13]. - **Chartering and Market Conditions**: Currently, the proportion of time-chartered vessels in the cruise and dry bulk segments is low, with most operating in the spot market. The one-year time charter rates have surpassed $60,000, nearing a new high for 2025 [2][14][15]. - **Dividend and Buyback Plans**: The company plans to distribute dividends based on 40% of net profit twice a year. The buyback strategy will be evaluated based on market conditions and stock performance in 2026 [2][16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Platinum [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Silver, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Log, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping [1][2] Core Views - In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. There is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. - Metal prices are affected by factors such as industrial drivers, risk preferences, and macro - policies, showing different trends of high - level volatility, short - term rebound with limited upward drive, and short - term shock - strengthening [1]. - Precious metals have different short - and long - term trends, with some having short - term shocks and long - term upward potential, and some being recommended to wait and see [1]. - New energy - related products are affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term pressure [1]. - Black metal prices are affected by factors such as macro - drivers, supply - demand, and inventory, and some products have opportunities for basis positive - spread positions [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as reports, policies, and supply - demand, and different products have different trends and investment suggestions [1]. - Energy - chemical product prices are affected by factors such as international agreements, supply - demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. In the long - term, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The market sentiment is fluctuating recently, and there is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Oxide: Industrial drivers are limited, and risk preferences are fluctuating. The aluminum price is oscillating widely at a high level. Domestic alumina production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Some short - positions are closed in the short - term, and the price rebounds, but the upward drive is limited [1]. - Zinc: Short - term macro - benefits have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and it is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to the changes in domestic growth - stabilizing policies [1]. - Nickel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. Global nickel inventory is still high. The nickel price may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to position changes and macro - sentiment. The cost of integrated MHP provides support below. Operate mainly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will be in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. The price of raw - material ferronickel has temporarily stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the estimated production cut by steel mills in December has increased. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills. The raw - material price has stabilized, and steel mills have raised prices. The stainless - steel futures are oscillating. It is recommended to operate mainly in the short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies for hedging [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. Tin is still regarded as bullish in the long - term. Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: It has fallen after reaching a high. The gold price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, but there is still upward space in the long - term [1]. - Silver: It has fallen after reaching a high, with sharp fluctuations. The silver price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Platinum: The platinum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and can be bought on dips in the long - term [1]. - Palladium: The palladium price is expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. From the perspective of the relative strength of the fundamentals, the “long platinum, short palladium” arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Production is increasing in the northwest and decreasing in the southwest. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. The number of delivery brands has increased [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles. Energy - storage demand is strong. Supply - side production resumption has increased. There is great pressure at the key level of 100,000 yuan [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and can appropriately participate in spot - futures positions [1]. - Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and the spot - futures positive - spread positions can still be continuously participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month contract [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass. The supply - demand situation is okay, the valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Coke: From a valuation perspective, the current decline is likely to be near the end. The coke contract at 1630 prices in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Each coking - coal contract is also close to the key support level. Further decline requires a continuous increase in coking - coal supply. From a drive perspective, it may need to wait. Downstream is expected to start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, treat single - side trading with a short - term mindset for now, and wait and see for the long - term. Close out hedging short - positions [1]. - Coking Coal: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB report is bearish, but the German RED III policy is bullish for origin exports. The night - session shows a rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Soybean Oil: The USDA report has no highlights. Recently, pay attention to the bearish impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Affected by the news of the return of imported non - GMO rapeseed oil, the supply of rapeseed oil has become relatively tight, and there is an expectation of a rebound [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream opening rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for inventory replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the cotton demand in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of “having support but no drive”. In the future, pay attention to the setting of direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand from March to April [1]. - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The bearish consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: In the short - term, funds are taking profits, and the futures price is giving back the emotional premium, but the spot contradiction has not been completely resolved. The short - term decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. Still, pay attention to changes in farmers' grain - selling mentality and inventory at each link [1]. - Soybean Meal: There are rumors of delayed customs clearance in China. Today, the成交率 and成交 premium of domestic imported soybean auctions are high, reflecting the market's expectation of commercial shortages, which is bullish for the near - month contract and positive spreads. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious speculation drive for South American weather, and the Brazilian discount is expected to be under pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1]. - Pulp: Pulp futures have been fluctuating greatly recently, being pulled by the reality of “weak demand” and the expectation of “strong supply”. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - Log: Log futures have fallen due to the negative impact of falling foreign - market quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is still being promoted. The US has intensified a new round of sanctions against Russia. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for catch - up construction during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber: The raw - material cost provides strong support. The futures - spot price difference is at a low level. The mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1]. - BR Rubber: The trading of butadiene has improved, the ex - tank price has increased, and there is bullish support on the export side. The listed price of major producers of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber has stabilized, and the ex - factory price of private enterprises has increased. High production and high inventory are still pressures, but the long - term demand for tires at home and abroad is increasing. Pay attention to the export situation of synthetic rubber [1]. - PTA: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX cost is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure. The commissioning of new polyester plants has pushed the polyester load to a high level. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification is expected to drive an increase in exports [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory is accumulating, and the price is falling accordingly. The coal price has fallen, and the cost support for domestic ethylene glycol has continued to weaken. The strong expectation of domestic plant commissioning is suppressing the rise of ethylene glycol [1]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: The styrene market as a whole maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Discussions about exports provide some support, but the polymer market sales are weak. US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has declined, and the price of high - octane components has declined [1]. - Urea: The number of overhauls has decreased, and the operating load is at a high level. There are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - Propylene: The number of overhauls is small, and the operating load is relatively high. The supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, providing strong cost support. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - PVC: The futures price has returned to the fundamentals. There will be fewer overhauls in the future, and new production capacity will be released, increasing the supply pressure. The demand has weakened, and orders are not good [2]. - Caustic Soda: The pre - delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have delayed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there are few overhauls. There is inventory - accumulation pressure for caustic soda in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The short - positions in the 01 contract have been rolled over to the March contract, and the shorts have not left the market [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental logic of looseness. The FEI has recently rebounded and repaired upwards. The heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere is gradually being released, and there is support from chemical rigid demand. The production and sales of domestic C3/C4 are smooth, and there is no inventory pressure. After the decline in the PG futures price, it maintains a range - bound oscillation. Pay attention to the price increase of the near - month contract affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [2]. - Container Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected. The expectation of price increases in the peak season was priced in advance. The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [2].