薛鹤翔、汪洋（薛鹤翔系申银万国期货研究所所长、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） + 摘要 国内宏观：国内宏观经济在消费与产业政策领域呈现出鲜明特征。消费端，十一假期出行数据反映出旅游 市场复杂态势。出行节奏提前，但整体出行强度逊于五一假期，显示居民出行决策更趋理性，可能与假期 安排、天气等因素有关。在旅游结构上，传统景点热度部分回落，而特色旅游如"省际交界游""边境游"异 军突起，表明消费者对旅游体验的个性化需求增长，旅游市场正在向多元化、特色化转型。免签范围扩大 刺激出境游增长，也反映出国内居民对国际旅游需求的释放以及国家在旅游开放政策上的积极成效，这有 助于带动旅游消费及相关服务业发展。 国外宏观：国庆长假期间，美国9月ADP就业、服务业PMI弱于市场预期。9月ADP就业减少3.2万人，大幅 低于市场预期的新增5.1万人，年度基准调整对其构成了4.3万人的影响，但就业市场趋势仍为走弱；美国9 月ISM服务业PMI回落至50，其中商业活动、新订单指数分别回落至49.9、50.4。 贵金属：国庆期间黄金持续创历史新高并突破4000美元/盎司，整体上黄金正处于一个历史级别的长期牛之 中，核心驱动包括对美国债务可持续性 ...

2025年9月26日，中信期货2025年秋季策略会圆满收官。本次策略会以"潮汐涌动.破卷立新"为主题，采 用线上会议的形式举行。通过7大论坛，中信期货研究所的研究员们以多元视角解析市场，多维度深挖 投资机遇，针对四季度及2026年大宗商品、权益、汇率等期货及衍生品领域展开深入剖析，助力投资者 多维掘金、稳健布局。 宏观与贵金属论坛：稳中求进|宏观趋势与资产配置 中信期货研究所宏观与国际研究部总经理姜婧女士表示，四季度宏观和大类资产基调是"稳中求进"，政 策与基本面对冲效应使得宏观环境偏"稳"，资产配置策略偏"进"。从国内层面看，四季度稳增长政策聚 焦三大方向：一是5000亿元政策性金融工具，二是货币政策大概率实施降准，三是"十五五"规划前瞻。 从海外维度看，美国经济动能趋疲，但政策"再校准"将提供支撑，未来1-2个季度，全球宽松流动性与 财政杠杆带动的复苏预期，将为风险资产提供支撑。 中信期货研究所宏观研究组资深研究员朱善颖女士聚焦贵金属，强调四季度黄金震荡偏强，是长期战略 配置窗口。尽管近两年实际利率与金价相关性降低，但受降息周期重启和美联储独立性风险影响，美国 实际利率下行周期中黄金上涨从未缺席。长期来看 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown improvement, with blast furnace operating rates increasing by 3.5% week-on-week and 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 6.2% [2][5] - The chemical production chain has also seen a rebound, with soda ash and PTA operating rates rising by 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, year-on-year changes of 2.7 percentage points to 12.5% and 8.5 percentage points to -6.3% [2][12] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved, increasing by 6% week-on-week and 5.8 percentage points year-on-year to 73.5% [12] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - Infrastructure construction remains at a high level, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates rising by 4.3% and 1.1% respectively, year-on-year changes of 5.8 percentage points to -5.5% and 1.1 percentage points to -4.4% [2][16] - Asphalt operating rates have slightly decreased by 1.8% week-on-week but remain at a high level year-on-year at 12.4% [2][22] Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - Real estate transactions have improved, with the average daily transaction area of new homes rising by 9.6 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][25] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has shown strong performance, with year-on-year increases of 3% to 7.2% and 7.8% to 13.4% for cargo and container throughput respectively [2][32] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have rebounded, with prices for eggs, vegetables, and pork increasing by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [3][57] - Industrial product prices are showing divergence, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.1% week-on-week, while energy and chemical prices decreased by 0.2% and metal prices increased by 0.3% [3][63]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some products are as follows: - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Expected to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Expected to be strong [1] - Nickel: Short - term bullish, long - term bearish pressure exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term bullish, suggest short - term operation [1] - Tin: Expected to strengthen in shock [1] - Palm oil: Long - term bullish, short - term risk of correction [1] - Rapeseed oil: Suggest 11 - 1 positive spread strategy [1] - PTA: No clear rating, but downstream situation is positive [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Market liquidity has weakened its driving force on stock index futures. With dense macro events this week, it is recommended to control risks in stock index futures positions and adjust for long - positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support for gold prices, which may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1]. - US CPI inflation data meets expectations, removing obstacles for the Fed rate cut. Along with the approaching consumption peak season, copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the Fed rate cut expectation is rising, and the market is concerned about the fourth - quarter nickel ore quota approval in Indonesia. Different metals have different trends based on their fundamentals [1]. - For black metals, supply surplus pressure remains, and although there is marginal improvement in peak - season demand, prices are under pressure [1]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends. For example, cotton supply may be tight in the short term, while sugar prices are expected to be weak in shock [1]. - For energy and chemical products, various factors such as device operation, supply and demand, and cost affect the price trends of different products [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index futures: Control risks in positions and adjust for long - positions due to weakened liquidity driving force and dense macro events [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Gold: Supported by the approaching Fed rate cut, may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1]. - Silver: Bullish [1]. - Copper: May be strong due to meeting inflation expectations and approaching consumption peak season [1]. - Aluminum: Expected to be strong with the Fed rate cut expectation and approaching consumption peak season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the price is close to the cost line, with limited downward space [1]. - Zinc: Narrow rebound due to improved macro sentiment but pressured by increasing social inventory [1]. - Nickel: Short - term shock and bullish, but long - term surplus pressure exists [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term shock and bullish, wait for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Expected to strengthen in shock with improved demand in the peak season [1]. Black metals - Rebar: Valuation returns to neutral, industry driving force is unclear, and macro driving force is warm, with a shock trend [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - Iron ore: Shock trend due to unfavorable short - term fundamentals [1]. - Glass: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Soda ash: Weak reality, supply surplus, and price pressure [1]. - Coal and coke: Fundamentals are weakening, with a shock and weakening trend [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: Short - term correction risk, long - term bullish, wait for callback to go long [1]. - Soybean: Pay attention to the adjustment of new - crop soybean yield per unit in the US, and the long - term bullish logic for oils in the fourth quarter remains [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Suggest 11 - 1 positive spread strategy [1]. - Cotton: Short - term supply may be tight, and the acquisition game during the new - cotton acquisition period is the focus [1]. - Sugar: Expected to be weak in shock, with limited short - term downward space [1]. - Corn: Expected to be weak in the short term due to negative news and new - grain selling pressure [1]. - Soybean meal: Maintains range - bound shock in the short term, and pay attention to Sino - US policy changes later [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially shown, but there is no bullish driving force yet [1]. - Log: Weak shock due to unchanged fundamentals and falling external quotes [1]. - Live pigs: Supply continues to increase, downstream acceptance is limited, and the overall is weak [1]. Energy and chemical products - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed rate cut expectation [1]. - Fuel oil: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1]. - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material cost and decreasing inventory [1]. - BR rubber: Pay attention to inventory de - stocking progress and autumn device maintenance [1]. - PTA: Production increases, basis declines rapidly, and downstream profits are repaired [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Basis strengthens, but new device production and hedging pressure exist [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices return, and market delivery willingness weakens [1]. - Pure benzene and styrene: Supply increases after maintenance, and domestic import pressure increases [1]. - PF: Price is weak in shock [1]. - PP: Market returns to fundamentals, with increasing supply pressure [1]. - PVC: Peak - season performance is not as expected, and inventory accumulates [1]. - Caustic soda: Weak in short - term shock [1]. - LPG: Suppressed by bearish fundamentals despite production increase [1]. Others - Container shipping: Supply in September exceeds the same - period level, and freight rates are declining [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Aluminum, Cotton (short - term), MO1, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Glass, Sugar, Corn (C01), Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea (upside limited), Some chemical products (PVC, etc. with weak - side trend) [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Index Futures (short - term adjustment for long - position opportunity), Treasury Bonds (suppressed in the short - term), Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Pulp (11 - 1 positive spread), Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Short - Fiber, Some chemical products (like Melamine, etc.) [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term adjustment of index futures due to the widening of the discount and liquidity drivers may bring opportunities for long - position layout; asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside [1]. - Gold continues to rise due to increased interest - rate cut expectations and the People's Bank of China's continuous ten - month increase in holdings, with an expected long - term upward trend [1]. - Metal prices are affected by factors such as macro - economy, supply and demand, and production capacity. For example, copper has limited downside due to expected interest - rate cuts, while aluminum is expected to be strong as the consumption peak approaches [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors like production, inventories, and market expectations. For instance, new cotton has a tight short - term supply, while sugar is expected to be weak with limited downside [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by production, inventory, and macro - policies. For example, PTA production has recovered, and ethylene glycol is under pressure from new device production [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - Index Futures: Short - term adjustment may offer long - position opportunities due to the widening of the discount and liquidity drivers [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central - bank warnings suppress the upside [1] - Gold: Expected to continue rising, with a long - term upward trend due to interest - rate cut expectations and central - bank purchases [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Pressured by weak US non - farm data, but limited downside due to expected interest - rate cuts [1] - Aluminum: Expected to be strong as the consumption peak approaches and interest - rate cut expectations rise [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals due to increased production and inventory, but long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts [1] - Zinc: Under pressure from inventory accumulation, but limited downside due to LME inventory reduction and macro - support [1] - Nickel: Follows macro - fluctuations in the short - term, with long - term pressure from primary - nickel oversupply [1] - Stainless Steel: Short - term weak - side oscillation, with attention to steel - mill production [1] - Tin: Supported by the current situation, with low - long opportunities [1] - Industrial Silicon: Supply recovery and weak demand in the short - term, with long - term production - capacity reduction expectations [1] - Polysilicon: Limited production expansion and low terminal demand [1] - Carbonate Lithium: Expected to recover production, with limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Expected small inventory increase in the MPOB report, with limited negative impact and callback - long opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Attention to the USDA report, with long - term bullish logic and callback - long opportunities [1] - Cotton: Tight short - term supply, with acquisition competition as a focus [1] - Sugar: Expected weak - side oscillation with limited downside [1] - Corn: Expected to be abundant, with a recommendation to short C01 at high prices [1] - MO1: In an upward channel, with a recommendation to long at low prices [1] - Pulp: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread due to price decline and reduced warehouse receipts [1] - Logs: Weak - side oscillation with unchanged fundamentals and falling prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production decisions, and interest - rate cut expectations [1] - Fuel Oil: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1] - PTA: Production recovery and increased downstream开工率 [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Under pressure from new device production and increased hedging [1] - Short - Fiber: Factory device recovery and weakened delivery willingness [1] - Styrene: Supply increase and import pressure, with a bearish outlook [1] - Urea: Limited upside due to weak domestic demand, but supported by anti - involution and cost [1] - Melamine: Weak - side oscillation due to macro - factors and limited demand [1] - PVC: Oscillation with reduced maintenance and increased supply pressure [1] - Alumina Ore: Expected price rebound due to approaching peak season and low inventory [1] - PG: Limited upside due to a bearish fundamental despite rising international oil prices [1] - Container Shipping: Declining freight rates due to high supply and expected price convergence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in Q2, particularly in the oil transportation segment, with expectations for improved performance in the latter half of the year [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 was 12.58 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, while Q2 revenue was 6.99 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year and a 24.9% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 2.12 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year, with Q2 net profit at 1.26 billion, up 12.3% year-on-year and 45.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Non-recurring net profit for H1 was 1.91 billion, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, with Q2 at 1.05 billion, down 3% year-on-year but up 23.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company declared a cash dividend of 0.7 per 10 shares, with cash dividends and buybacks accounting for 41.2% of net profit [1]. Oil Transportation Segment - In Q2, oil transportation revenue was 2.31 billion, down 4.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 0.81 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year and a significant increase of 65.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The VLCC fleet outperformed the industry, benefiting from a strong market driven by OPEC's production increase and tightening sanctions on non-compliant trade [1][2]. - The TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for the company's fleet continued to exceed market indices, with expectations for a strong Q4 due to seasonal demand [2]. Bulk Shipping and Container Shipping - Bulk shipping revenue for Q2 was 2.02 billion, down 2% year-on-year, with net profit at 0.26 billion, down 40.6% year-on-year but up 65.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company’s fleet outperformed market indices in various categories, with expectations for steady growth in bulk shipping driven by increased demand for commodities [3]. - Container shipping revenue for Q2 was 1.88 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year, with net profit at 0.29 billion, up 115.4% year-on-year but down 12.5% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a strong recommendation based on current valuation and the expected upward trend in the oil transportation market and stable growth in bulk shipping [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 6.48 billion, 7.66 billion, and 8.18 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7, and PB ratios of 1.2, 1.1, and 1.0 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The merger between China Shipbuilding and China State Shipbuilding has received regulatory approval, marking a significant step in the restructuring of China's shipbuilding industry, with the aim of enhancing resource synergy and market competitiveness [1][4][8]. Group 1: Merger Details - The merger involves a share swap where China Shipbuilding will absorb China State Shipbuilding, leading to the latter's delisting [1][4]. - The merger has been in the works for over a year, with the approval process taking only 71 days, indicating strong support for state-owned enterprise consolidation [8]. - Following the merger, both companies will halt trading on August 13, with a resumption date yet to be determined [1][3]. Group 2: Financial and Operational Impact - Combined assets of the two companies will exceed 400 billion yuan, surpassing the asset scale of previous major mergers in the industry [7]. - In 2024, the two companies are projected to achieve combined revenues exceeding 1 trillion yuan and net profits over 50 billion yuan [7]. - The order backlog for China Shipbuilding stands at 322 vessels with a total weight of 24.61 million tons, valued at 216.96 billion yuan, while China State Shipbuilding has 216 vessels valued at 233.77 billion yuan, together accounting for 15% of the global order backlog [7]. Group 3: Strategic Advantages - The merger will facilitate the integration of complementary technologies and enhance bargaining power in the market [7][11]. - The consolidation is expected to reduce internal competition and improve supply chain resilience, positioning the new entity to better capitalize on the upcoming shipbuilding cycle [11]. - The merger aligns with the trend of state-owned enterprises leveraging capital markets for integration, potentially leading to more M&A activities in the future [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in crude oil shipping rates and a downward trend in shipping rates for the US routes. As of July 31, the China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) was reported at 880.79 points, down 6.8% from July 24. The VLCC market on the Middle East route continues to decline, with rates dropping to an annual low of WS45 due to a lack of concentrated shipments [2][14] - Ezhou Huahu International Airport has seen rapid growth in its cargo hub capabilities over three years, establishing 104 cargo routes and handling a cumulative throughput of 2 million tons. The Shenzhen low-altitude infrastructure plan aims to establish over 1,200 takeoff and landing points and 1,000 commercial routes by 2026, with a projected low-altitude economy output exceeding 130 billion yuan [2][16][17] - Shentong Express announced a cash acquisition of 100% of Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, enhancing its high-value delivery network. Baidu's autonomous vehicles are also expanding internationally through a partnership with Uber [2][25] Industry Dynamics - **Air Cargo**: The air cargo price index for outbound flights from Shanghai was reported at 4429.00 points as of July 28, down 3.7% year-on-year but up 0.2% month-on-month. Domestic cargo flights increased by 7.61% year-on-year in July 2025 [26][33] - **Shipping Ports**: The SCFI index was reported at 1550.74 points, down 2.63% week-on-week and down 53.47% year-on-year. The PDCI index for domestic shipping increased by 1.45% week-on-week [40][51] - **Express Logistics**: In June 2025, the express delivery volume increased by 15.78% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.00% year-on-year [53][55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics. It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy trends and road-rail sectors, recommending companies like Ganyue Expressway and China Eastern Airlines [4]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, increasing by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]