Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite Trump's possible postponement of the planned visit to China, the stable pattern of Sino - US relations this year might not change, and potential outcomes could include tariff arrangements, bilateral trade and investment arrangements, and an extension of the "truce period". Domestically, Trump may intensify economic and industrial policies and forcefully promote constituency redrawing and the SAVE America Act, leading to more intense political games [29]. - After the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, global bond markets have adjusted significantly, especially the short - end of European bonds. The Chinese bond market is relatively stable, and its trend depends on the domestic fundamentals, monetary policy, and supply - demand relationship. It is slightly weak but has limited adjustment space. When the ten - year treasury bond enters the 1.85 - 1.9% range, trading opportunities can be grasped. It is recommended to use medium - and short - term credit bonds as the bottom position, trade long - term interest rates based on odds, and pay attention to structural opportunities such as the steepening of the yield curve and the compression of tax spreads. Convertible bonds should be kept at a low allocation [29]. - Given the possible situation of "rising oil prices - rising inflation - the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts or even raising rates - increasing possibility of stagflation or even recession", current asset prices may not fully reflect this, and there is a need to be vigilant about potential deep - seated adjustments. In the short term, the development of the Iranian situation should be closely monitored [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Quick View - In Q4 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - In February 2026, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from the previous month's 49.2% and the same period last year's 50.2%. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month but lower than the same period last year's 50.4% [1]. - In February 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month's 2492.6 billion yuan but higher than the same period last year's 2233.1 billion yuan [1]. - In February 2026, M0, M1, and M2 increased by 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, all higher than the previous month and the same period last year. The monthly value of new RMB loans by financial institutions was 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month's 390 billion yuan but lower than the same period last year's 1010 billion yuan [1]. - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, up from the previous month's 0.7% and turning positive from the same period last year's - 0.7%. PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month's - 2.2% and the same period last year's - 2.2% [1]. - In February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completed was 1.8%, turning positive from the previous year's - 2.6% but lower than the same period last year's 4.1%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8%, lower than the previous month's 4.0% and the same period last year's 4.0% [1]. - In February 2026, export and import amounts increased by 39.60% and 13.80% year - on - year respectively, significantly higher than the previous month and the same period last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of significant price fluctuations in precious metals and urged member units to prepare risk - response plans and advised investors to control positions and invest rationally [2]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the daily limit and trading margin levels of liquefied petroleum gas futures contracts starting from the settlement on March 24, 2026 [2]. - The US - Iran negotiation situation is unclear. Trump claimed to have reached an agreement framework and will suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days, but Iran denied having negotiations [2][3]. - On March 23, 2026, 28 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 39 had negative basis. The basis of Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and cast aluminum alloy was the largest, while that of apples, propylene, and butadiene rubber was the smallest [3]. - Trump's remarks on US - Iran negotiations caused a shock in global financial markets. Crude oil prices plunged, US Treasury yields declined, and precious metals rebounded [4]. Metals - There was a market rumor about the low pass - rate of lithium carbonate in the delivery warehouse of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, but the exchange stated that all in - warehouse goods met the delivery quality standards [5]. - On March 23, 2026, the domestic gold price fell below 1000 yuan/gram, and the prices of gold jewelry from major brands continued to decline [5]. - Last week, the gold price dropped by over 10% cumulatively, hitting the largest single - week decline since February 1983. On March 23, the spot gold price further dropped below the 4100 - dollar/ounce mark, erasing all gains in 2026 [6]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate prices showed a downward trend in the week, and it is expected to fluctuate between 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton in the future [6]. - Posco International plans to build a global supply chain for heavy rare - earth elements, invest in a domestic rare - earth refining enterprise, and strengthen its global procurement network in Southeast Asia [7]. - The US will contribute $250 million to a supply - chain investment fund for energy and rare - earth fields [7]. - On March 20, 2026, copper inventory reached a new high in 7 years and 10 months, while aluminum, nickel, and other metal inventories decreased [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Coke prices in Shandong, Xingtai, and Yuncheng are planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton starting from March 25, 2026 [8]. Energy and Chemicals - The state implemented temporary price controls on refined oil products on March 23, 2026. The actual increase in gasoline and diesel prices was lower than the calculated increase [9]. - China will adhere to the integrated development of multiple energy sources and build a safe and resilient energy system during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [9][10]. - The US crude oil exports in March 2026 are expected to reach a record 4.6 million barrels per day [11]. - The International Energy Agency is consulting with member countries on releasing oil reserves again, but it warned that this cannot fundamentally solve the supply shortage problem [11]. - The US Energy Secretary believes the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves again is very low and that the impact of the blocked Hormuz Strait on global energy flow is "short - term" [11]. - The chairman of the Japanese Petroleum Association called for releasing more oil reserves and requested the government to do so [11]. Agricultural Products - Seven departments jointly deployed the work of cracking down on fake agricultural supplies for spring plowing in 2026 to ensure food security and agricultural production [12]. - From January to February 2026, the national industrial feed production was 51.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The prices of major feed products showed mixed trends [12]. - As of last Thursday, 68% of the 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil had been harvested [12]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On March 23, 2026, the central bank conducted 8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 137.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, the net withdrawal was 129.3 billion yuan [13]. Key News - President Xi Jinping inspected Xiongan New Area and emphasized promoting the high - quality construction and development of Xiongan, advancing the relocation of non - capital functions from Beijing, and providing policy support for relocated projects [14]. - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan stated that fiscal policy will focus more on investing in people, increasing support for people's well - being, and improving the proportion of public service expenditures and government investment in people's livelihood [14]. - Wang Yi met with the UK Prime Minister's National Security Advisor and emphasized promoting the stable development of China - UK relations based on the consensus of the two leaders [15]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors optimized the registration and issuance mechanism for debt financing tools of basic - layer enterprises, including unified registration, expanding the high - quality enterprise scope, and providing different support for different - level enterprises [16]. - In the first two months of 2026, the added value of industries above the designated size in Jiangsu increased by 8% year - on - year, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, etc. [16]. - The National Development and Reform Commission implemented temporary price controls on refined oil products to mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices and protect downstream users [17]. - The tense situation in the Middle East has affected the global shipping industry, leading to a shortage of shipping space and rising freight rates. Chinese foreign - trade and logistics enterprises are adjusting their transportation routes and market layouts [17]. - As of March 23, 2026, 20 A - share listed companies have announced convertible bond issuance plans, with a total issuance scale of over 31 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 230% [18]. - Gansu Province plans to issue 63.5 billion yuan of local bonds in the second quarter of 2026 [19]. - The US may launch a ground military operation against Iran's Kharg Island, and Iran warns that it will take countermeasures if attacked [20]. - There were multiple bond events, including the invalidation of bondholder meetings of Pingxiang Huifeng Investment, the passing of the early redemption proposal of "22 Changle Special Bond", etc. [21]. - There were overseas credit rating changes, such as S&P confirming Poly Developments' "BBB" rating, and Fitch revoking Taiyuan Longcheng Development Investment Group's "BBB" rating [22]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China was under pressure, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds rising. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract closed up, and the money market was stable and loose [23]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds fell, while others rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined [24]. - Most money - market interest rates showed mixed trends, and Shibor short - end varieties also showed different performances [25][26]. - The winning bid yields of some financial bonds issued by the China Development Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank of China were announced, along with their full - field and marginal multiples [26]. - European and US bond yields generally declined [27]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - On March 23, 2026, the on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell, and the US dollar index also declined. Non - US currencies showed mixed trends [28]. Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the stable pattern of Sino - US relations may remain unchanged this year, and Trump may intensify domestic political games [29]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the Chinese bond market is relatively stable, and it is recommended to adjust the bond investment strategy according to different bond types [29]. - Guosheng Macro's Xiong Yuan warns of potential deep - seated adjustments in asset prices and suggests closely monitoring the Iranian situation [29]. Today's Reminders - On March 24, 2026, 220 bonds will be listed, 185 bonds will be issued, 103 bonds will make payments, and 327 bonds will pay principal and interest [30]. 4. Stock Market Key News - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all fell significantly. The market turnover was 2.45 trillion yuan. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and other sectors led the decline, while coal stocks and some concepts bucked the trend [32]. - A - share market fluctuated sharply on Monday, but many institutions are optimistic about the long - term trend of A - shares, believing that China has advantages in energy security and supply - chain resilience [32]. - The Hong Kong stock market declined unilaterally, with the Hang Seng Index hitting an 8 - month low. All sectors fell, and southbound funds had a net purchase of over HK$29.7 billion [32].