Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the surprising resilience of the U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, which has reached historical highs despite global uncertainties, driven primarily by the AI sector and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index has returned +2.3% in September, significantly above the historical average of -0.6%, marking a new high for September returns [3]. - Multiple Wall Street investment banks have raised their target prices for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs predicting returns of +2%, +5%, and +8% over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, corresponding to index levels of approximately 6800, 7000, and 7200 points [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley maintains a baseline scenario of 6500 points but acknowledges the increasing likelihood of a bullish scenario reaching 7200 points [6]. Group 2: Earnings Growth - Earnings growth is identified as a primary support for the bull market, with 54% of the S&P 500's year-to-date increase attributed to earnings growth, 38% to valuation expansion, and 8% to dividends [8]. - The actual interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased from 2.23% to 1.75%, supporting stock market valuations [8]. Group 3: AI Sector as a Driving Force - The AI industry is highlighted as the core driver of the current bull market, with its extensive ecosystem supporting sustained upward movement in the overall index [10]. - Recent strategic partnerships, such as NVIDIA's collaboration with OpenAI, have led to significant investments and market excitement, with NVIDIA planning to invest up to $100 billion in data centers [11]. - OpenAI's valuation has surged to $500 billion, a 33-fold increase from two years ago, reflecting the growing importance of AI in the market [11]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Despite concerns about overvaluation in AI-related stocks, the fundamental outlook remains positive due to relatively cheap capital and the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in a high-inflation environment [13]. - Market participants face a dilemma between chasing high prices or waiting for a correction, with experienced traders typically opting for the latter despite the associated risks [13].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index has shown a remarkable performance in September, achieving a return of +2.3%, significantly above the historical average of -0.6%, and marking a new high for September returns [1] - The ongoing AI wave is driving the market upward, with several Wall Street firms projecting the S&P 500 index to exceed 7000 points [1][3] - The market is currently in a transitional phase of rolling recovery, with expectations for corporate earnings growth to surpass forecasts [3][4] Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its return forecasts for the S&P 500 to +2%, +5%, and +8% over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, corresponding to index levels of approximately 6800, 7000, and 7200 points [3] - Morgan Stanley maintains a baseline scenario of 6500 points but acknowledges the increasing likelihood of a bullish scenario reaching 7200 points [3] Earnings Growth - Earnings growth is identified as a primary support for the bull market, with 54% of the S&P 500's year-to-date increase attributed to earnings growth [4][5] - The current market lacks extreme speculative phenomena, and the basic valuation remains favorable compared to previous years [4] AI Industry Focus - The AI industry chain is recognized as the core driver of the current bull market, with its extensive ecosystem expected to sustain upward momentum for the overall index [6][7] - Recent strategic partnerships, such as NVIDIA's collaboration with OpenAI, have significantly influenced market sentiment and stock prices [7][8] Investment Sentiment - Despite concerns about overvaluation in AI-related stocks, the fundamental outlook remains strong due to relatively cheap capital and the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in a high-inflation environment [8] - Market participants are divided on strategies to navigate the current overbought conditions, with experienced traders typically opting to wait for a pullback [9]