Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US initial jobless claims were lower than expected, the labor market showed "low hiring, low layoffs" characteristics, the Fed's dovish stance on interest rate cuts persisted, the US-Iran nuclear talks made progress, and the US PPI was to be watched. In China, the A-share market was in a weak shock, and the market pricing logic might shift as the Two Sessions approached. Different commodities had different trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro factors [2][3]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - US initial jobless claims were 212,000, lower than expected. The labor market showed "low hiring, low layoffs" characteristics. The Fed's Milan expected 100bp of rate cuts in 2026 and preferred early action. The US-Iran nuclear talks made progress and another meeting was scheduled next week. The US PPI was to be watched tonight. In China, the A-share market was in a weak shock on Thursday, with the turnover rising to 2.56 trillion and more than 2,800 stocks closing down. The market was in a data and policy vacuum, with short - term safety and a possible shift in pricing logic as the Two Sessions approached [2][3]. Precious Metals - International precious metals futures generally pulled back on Thursday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.47% to $5,201.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 3.02% to $88.86 per ounce. The third round of US - Iran nuclear talks ended without intensifying the conflict. Short - term gold faced resistance near the previous high, and silver remained highly volatile [4][5]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper's main contract was in a high - level shock, and LME copper oscillated around $13,200. The spot market trading was light, and downstream restocking willingness was low. The Fed had internal differences on interest rates, and the US - Iran talks had progress but also differences. The Kamoja - Kakula project's copper production in 2025 was 389,000 tons. It was expected that copper prices would remain in a high - level shock in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 23,845 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. LME aluminum closed at $3,141.5 per ton, down 1.04%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 51,000 tons. There were many macro uncertainties, and the inventory was in a normal seasonal accumulation. Overseas, an Icelandic aluminum plant planned to resume production in April, and a Mozambican plant was about to shut down. It was expected that aluminum prices would continue to oscillate within a range [8][9][10]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2,820 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. After the Spring Festival, the supply side changed little, but high - level inventories suppressed prices. It was expected that alumina would oscillate within a range [11]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 22,710 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The cost was strongly supported due to tight scrap aluminum supply and high aluminum prices. The supply and demand were both weak after the festival. It was expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [12]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc's main contract first declined and then rose, and LME zinc's center of gravity slightly decreased. The 3 - month domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased slightly. The inventory increase slowed, and the cost was still supported. It was expected that zinc prices would oscillate in the short term [13]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead's main contract oscillated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow shock. The primary lead smelters had stable production, while the secondary lead smelters had poor profits and slow resumption. The downstream battery enterprises had limited purchasing power, and the inventory continued to rise. It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level shock [14][15]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin's main contract slightly adjusted during the day and its center of gravity slightly moved up at night, and LME tin slightly rose. The tin market showed a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. In the long - term, the supply was restricted, and the demand was boosted. In the short - term, the rise slowed, but the upward trend remained [16]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated. The total inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.3427 million tons week - on - week. The steel production decreased after the festival, and the apparent demand gradually recovered. It was expected that the inventory inflection point would appear around four weeks after the festival. The steel prices were expected to oscillate and stabilize in the short term [17]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The fundamentals showed strong supply and weak demand, with overseas shipments increasing and port inventories remaining high. The demand recovery was limited due to steel mill restrictions. It was expected that iron ore prices would mainly oscillate [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted. The upstream coal mines gradually resumed production, increasing supply pressure. The downstream steel mills had weak procurement, and the demand was restricted due to steel mill restrictions. It was expected that coking coal and coke prices would oscillate, and the subsequent focus was on steel mill profit repair and policy support from the Two Sessions [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.35% to 2,834 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 0.69% to 2,296 yuan/ton. The US soybean export sales slowed, and external institutions lowered Brazil's soybean production forecast. The US bio - fuel policy boosted the market. It was expected that the domestic soybean meal would oscillate strongly in the short term [21][22]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 1.51% to 8,714 yuan/ton. The Malaysian palm oil production in February 1 - 25 decreased. The US bio - fuel policy boosted the market. The high - frequency data showed weak supply and demand for Malaysian palm oil in February. It was expected that palm oil would oscillate in the short term [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - Nvidia reported record revenue of $68.1 billion for FY26Q4, a 73% year-over-year increase, and a GAAP net profit of $42.96 billion, up 94% [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the growing opportunities in the AI industry, particularly in the AI computing supply chain [2][39]. - The report highlights the strong performance of AAOI, which has significantly revised its earnings expectations upward due to high-end product demand [15]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoint - Nvidia's quarterly revenue reached $68.1 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a strong guidance for Q1 FY27 at $78 billion [7][10]. - The data center business, a core growth driver, generated $62.3 billion in revenue, marking a 75% year-over-year increase [7][11]. - The report suggests focusing on key opportunities along the AI computing supply chain, including optical modules, CPO, and AI servers [7]. Industry News - Nvidia's record revenue is seen as a bellwether for AI demand, with CEO Jensen Huang stating that the adoption of AI is at a turning point [9][10]. - Alibaba Cloud launched its Coding Plan, offering access to top open-source models, significantly reducing costs for high-frequency coding tasks [13][14]. - AAOI's latest earnings report shows a total revenue of $456 million for 2025, a year-over-year increase of 83%, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [15][16]. Investment Highlights - The industry has seen an increase in holding ratios, with valuations at historically high levels, reflecting positive expectations driven by the AI supply chain [39]. - Strong overseas demand and the acceleration of domestic AI infrastructure are expected to benefit core domestic companies [40][41]. - The report anticipates a significant shift in the industry with new connections and technologies emerging in 2026, creating more investment opportunities [42]. - AI-driven network upgrades are expected to enhance communication capabilities, with rapid advancements in new technologies [43].

行情回顾 本周，美元指数整体区间震荡。美国最高法院推翻特朗普关税政策、白宫引入新进口税令市场反复评估贸易前景，美元多次冲高回落，整体缺乏方向。截至 发稿，美指报97.75。 现货黄金高位盘整。周初受关税不确定性及美伊紧张局势提振，金价重返5200美元上方并触及三周高点；随后因美元企稳及获利了结大幅回落，盘中一度跌 超100美元。此后多次冲击5200关口，整体维持高位震荡。白银振幅更大，多次突破90美元后回落，周五美国敦促公民离开以色列后白银急涨，站上92美元 关口。 主要非美货币走势分化。欧元和英镑兑美元以震荡整理为主，缺乏明确方向；日元整体走弱，美元兑日元延续上行；澳元在商品属性和央行预期支撑下相对 抗跌，表现略强于其他非美货币。 国际油价在六个月高位附近冲高回落。盘中一度涨约2%，但随着美伊谈判传出积极进展，以及欧佩克+释放增产预期，油价再度承压。周五，美伊紧张局势 带动国际油价急涨。 本周美股走势震荡明显。周初受AI担忧与关税风险升温影响，金融和软件股领跌，大盘回调；随后在AI龙头业绩预期推动下，科技股一度反弹、纳指走 强；但英伟达财报落地后市场情绪转谨慎，芯片与大型科技股回落拖累指数，板块轮动加剧，整 ...

当地时间2月26日，刚刚发布财报的英伟达股价大跌5.5%，市值蒸发近2600亿美元，而2月27日A股和港股的算力租赁、云计算和电力股却掀起涨停潮。 这背后是中国AI模型调用量首次超越美国，且全球前五模型中中国占四席。 中国模型的高效架构削弱了对高端GPU的依赖，国产算力需求因此指数级增长，资本市场开始重新审视算力价值的分配。 今天，中美资本市场上演了戏剧性的一幕。 当地时间2月26日，刚刚发布创纪录财报的AI芯片巨头英伟达股价大跌5.5%，市值一夜蒸发近2600亿美元（约合人民币1.77万亿元）。 相反，2月27日，A股市场的算力租赁、云计算、电力和数据中心股却掀起涨停潮。其中，云天励飞-U 20%涨停，普元信息20%涨停，珈伟新能 （300317）上涨19.91%，南网能源（003035）上涨10.04%。港股市场上，商汤-W上涨4.10%，金山云上涨7.54%。 冰火两重天的走势背后，一个关键变量浮出水面。 《每日经济新闻》2月26日独家报道，全球最大的AI模型API聚合平台OpenRouter数据显示，2026年2月，中国AI模型的周调用量（以Token计）首次超越 美国。并且，在全球调用量前五的模型中 ...

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜兰素英 今天，中美资本市场上演了戏剧性的一幕。 当地时间2月26日，刚刚发布创纪录财报的AI芯片巨头英伟达股价大跌5.5%，市值一夜蒸发近2600亿美元（约合人民币1.77万亿元）。 相反，2月27日，A股市场的算力租赁、云计算、电力和数据中心股却掀起涨停潮。其中，云天励飞-U 20%涨停，普元信息20%涨停，珈伟新能上涨 19.91%，南网能源上涨10.04%。港股市场上，商汤-W上涨4.10%，金山云上涨7.54%。 冰火两重天的走势背后，一个关键变量浮出水面。 《每日经济新闻》2月26日报道，全球最大的AI模型API聚合平台OpenRouter数据显示，2026年2月，中国AI模型的周调用量（以Token计）首次超越美国。 并且，在全球调用量前五的模型中，中国模型占据四席，呈现出"集群式崛起"的态势。 市场对于英伟达优秀业绩已不再感到意外。有分析师指出，辩论的焦点已从短期的业绩表现，转移到对AI资本支出可持续性的长期担忧上。当市场开始质 疑英伟达的增长天花板时，任何风吹草动都可能被放大。 然而，A股和港股市场却是另一番景象。2月27日，相关板块迎来涨停潮。 具体来看，A股算力 ...

AI基础设施供应商CoreWeave(CRWV.US)一季度指引逊预期拖累股价，盘后重挫逾9%，全年展望仍具支撑。 2月26日美股盘后，CoreWeave第四季度调整后每股亏损56美分，高于市场普遍预期的50美分。净亏损从上年同期的5100万美元大幅扩大至4.52亿 美元。 尽管一季度收入指引区间为19亿至20亿美元，远低于分析师预测的22.9亿美元，令市场情绪受压。 CFO Nitin Agrawal解释称，随着公司大规模扩张，数据中心租赁成本、电力支出和折旧费用将先于营收确认而启动。Agrawal随后补充道，当业 务和增长常态化后，公司有信心实现25%至30%的长期利润率。 公司CEO Mike Intrator称AI算力需求"无情且永无止境"，推动客户平均合同期拉长至5年，且推理需求爆发使得A100芯片不跌反涨。 2026年公司资本开支将翻倍至超300亿美元，预期营收120-130亿美元，并剑指2027年超300亿美元的年化收入。 此外就2025财年，CoreWeave全年营收达到51亿美元，同比暴增168%。公司CEO Mike Intrator在会上直言：2025年是CoreWeave具有决定性意义 ...

据Theinformation报道，Meta公司在多款芯片的研发上都遇到了问题。该公司放弃了一款内部代号为Iris的第二代训练芯 片。之后，该公司开始研发一款更先进的训练芯片，代号为Olympus，但现在这款芯片也已被放弃。 一位知情人士透露，Meta 最初计划与 Olympus 合作构建大型服务器集群，但高管最终认为，在与 OpenAI 和 Google 等老 牌竞争对手展开激烈竞争之际，这样做会给新模型的训练带来重大风险。例如，用于训练芯片的软件稳定性不如英伟达的 产品，而且 Olympus 复杂的设计也可能导致难以大规模生产。 与此同时，据报道，Meta Platforms 已经与谷歌签订一项价值数十亿美元的协议，租用谷歌的 AI 芯片（即张量处理单元） 来开发新的 AI 模型。这必将加剧谷歌和英伟达的芯片竞争。 Meta的定制芯片之旅 Meta 进军定制芯片领域是一项深思熟虑的战略，旨在克服现成 AI 加速器在技术和财务方面的局限性。首先从财务上看， Meta自研芯片应该是大有可为。 鉴于 Meta Platforms 在研发和资本支出方面投入了巨额资金——预计 2025 年，其研发投入约为 500 ...

AI基础设施供应商CoreWeave一季度指引逊预期拖累股价，盘后重挫逾9%，全年展望仍具支撑。 2月26日美股盘后，CoreWeave第四季度调整后每股亏损56美分，高于市场普遍预期的50美分。净亏损从上年同期的5100万美元大幅扩大至4.52亿 美元。 尽管一季度收入指引区间为19亿至20亿美元，远低于分析师预测的22.9亿美元，令市场情绪受压。 CFO Nitin Agrawal解释称，随着公司大规模扩张，数据中心租赁成本、电力支出和折旧费用将先于营收确认而启动。Agrawal随后补充道，当业 务和增长常态化后，公司有信心实现25%至30%的长期利润率。 公司CEO Mike Intrator称AI算力需求"无情且永无止境"，推动客户平均合同期拉长至5年，且推理需求爆发使得A100芯片不跌反涨。 2026年公司资本开支将翻倍至超300亿美元，预期营收120-130亿美元，并剑指2027年超300亿美元的年化收入。 此外就2025财年，CoreWeave全年营收达到51亿美元，同比暴增168%。公司CEO Mike Intrator在会上直言： 2025年是CoreWeave具有决定性意义的一年。这是历史 ...

英伟达的高利润率并非没有代价。存储器成本上涨是其无法回避的现实，尽管英伟达在关键零部件的供 应排队中处于优先地位。 据彭博报道，英伟达首席财务官Colette Kress表示，公司已"战略性地锁定库存与产能，以满足未来数个 季度以上的需求"，但同时预计供应"紧张"状况将持续。 英伟达公布了75.2%的调整后毛利率，刷新近期高点，但这一令竞争对手望尘莫及的盈利能力能否持 续，正面临供应瓶颈收窄、自研芯片加速崛起以及客户AI投资回报尚未兑现的多重压力。 英伟达最新季报显示，截至今年1月的季度调整后毛利率达75.2%，为2024年下半年以来最高水平，公 司同时预计本季度将维持相近水平。在需求侧，超大规模AI公司今年资本支出预计合计约6500亿美 元，较2025年增长约60%，英伟达将从中大幅受益——这一点在财报发布前已被市场充分预期，因此本 轮财报的真正亮点，落在了利润率而非需求本身。 竞争格局正在生变。AMD本周宣布与Meta签署价值"数百亿美元"的数据中心处理器供应协议，直接冲 击英伟达的GPU核心业务；Alphabet旗下TPU芯片及Amazon自研芯片也在加速抢占市场份额，且定价远 低于英伟达产品，日益划算 ...

在英伟达公布2026财年第四财季及全年财报前，有不少投资者担忧"AI泡沫"何时破裂，尤其是科技巨头 数千亿美元AI投资的延续性问题。英伟达的业绩对外界判断AI支出的景气度提供参照，不少人将其视 为衡量AI风险的"试金石"。 当地时间2月25日美股盘后，英伟达发布财报，交出超预期"答卷"。 Agentic AI拐点到来 财报数据显示，英伟达第四财季总营收为681.3亿美元，环比增长20%，同比增长73%，高于分析师此前 预测的662亿美元的营收额。从结构上看，数据中心营收为623亿美元，市场预期为606.2亿美元，上年 同期为355.8亿美元；网络营收109.8亿美元，分析师预期90.2亿美元；游戏营收37亿美元，分析师预期 40.1亿美元。 在财报电话会上，有分析师提问，英伟达的几大科技公司客户在2026年的资本开支已经非常高，现金流 也开始紧张，未来如果这些公司不能再继续提高资本开支，英伟达的业绩如何进一步增长？ 英伟达CEO黄仁勋表示，对客户现金流增长充满信心。他认为，现在算力就等于收入，AI能力越来越 强，谁买到了更多算力，谁就能创造更多价值，也就有了更多收入。黄仁勋认为，现在已经来到了 Agentic ...