Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the unavailability of key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rate cuts [1][8]. Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown, starting October 1, has resulted in the cancellation of critical reports, including the September employment report [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, initially scheduled for mid-October, has been delayed to October 24, just days before the Federal Reserve's meeting [3]. - The lack of data means that the Federal Reserve is relying on second-hand information, which is insufficient for accurate economic assessments [5][6]. Group 2: Challenges for the Federal Reserve - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has expressed the importance of these data, indicating that the shutdown hampers their ability to collect necessary information for policy-making [8]. - The current situation highlights the difficulties faced by the Federal Reserve in making precise policy decisions without complete data, especially in light of ongoing political disputes [8][10]. - Historical instances of government shutdowns have previously delayed data releases, but the current scenario is unique due to the additional complexities introduced by the Trump administration's policies [11][15]. Group 3: Future Considerations - If the government shutdown extends beyond the Federal Reserve's next meeting, there may be a chance for data to be released, allowing for more informed discussions in December [18]. - However, even with the return of data, the Federal Reserve must remain cautious and not be misled by temporary improvements in employment or CPI figures [18].

Core Points - The U.S. federal government is set to shut down if Congress does not pass a new fiscal year budget by midnight on Tuesday, October 1, leading to a halt in data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [2] - The shutdown will impact key economic indicators, including the non-farm payroll report, initial jobless claims, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which are crucial for assessing the labor market and inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting [2][3] - Historical precedents indicate that government shutdowns can lead to significant market volatility and uncertainty, as seen during previous shutdowns when critical economic data was delayed [3][4] Impact on Financial Markets - The absence of key economic reports is expected to amplify volatility in interest rate futures, leading to speculative pricing in the asset markets [3] - The BLS is not the only affected department, but its data is vital for financial markets, and a prolonged shutdown could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates [3] - Wall Street strategists have raised the probability of a government shutdown to 70%, warning that if combined with debt ceiling disputes, October could see volatility comparable to the 2011 S&P downgrade [4]