Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown on October 1, 2025, has disrupted the flow of critical economic data, impacting decision-making for policymakers and investors [1][3][4] - Key economic indicators such as the monthly employment report and unemployment data are now delayed, leading to uncertainty in assessing the health of the economy [3][6][10] - The Federal Reserve is facing significant challenges in formulating monetary policy due to the lack of timely and accurate economic data, which is essential for balancing inflation control and employment stability [6][8][10] Group 2 - The market is experiencing heightened volatility as investors react to the uncertainty caused by the government shutdown, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index showing a notable increase [10][11] - Companies that rely on government contracts, such as construction and technology firms, are facing reduced orders and delayed payments, leading to declining stock prices and diminished investor confidence [11][10] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to fixed-income assets and maintain cash reserves to navigate the turbulent market conditions effectively [13][14]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced fluctuations during the trading session on October 2, ultimately closing higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.17%, the Nasdaq up 0.39%, and the S&P 500 up 0.06%, all reaching record closing highs [2] - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Meta and Broadcom rising over 1%, while Tesla fell more than 5% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.06%, with most popular Chinese stocks increasing, including Century Internet up over 4%, Alibaba, NIO, and Kingsoft up over 3%, and Baidu up over 2% [4] - Bilibili and Li Auto rose over 1%, while Miniso fell over 3% [4] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that the Fed will make decisions based on existing information in the absence of official unemployment data, emphasizing the need to avoid premature rate cuts [4] - Analysts suggest that investors appear to bet on a short-term government shutdown, which is unlikely to have a severe impact on the US economy [4] Government Shutdown Implications - President Trump warned that a prolonged government shutdown could lead to layoffs and project cuts, following the Senate's rejection of funding bills that resulted in the federal government shutting down for the first time in nearly seven years [5] - Vice President Pence and White House spokesperson Levitt indicated that layoffs are likely to occur soon if the shutdown continues [5] Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.43% at $3880.8 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 1.7% at $46.87 per ounce [6] - International oil prices also saw a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures falling over 2%, influenced by a report showing an increase in OPEC's oil production by 400,000 barrels per day to 29.05 million barrels per day in September [6]

美联储古尔斯比表示，在没有官方失业率数据的情况下，美联储将依据现有信息作出决策。美联储需要 谨慎避免过度提前降息。 ...

古尔斯比表示，美联储"正进入一个需要弄清楚的时期：这是否意味着一种转变?如果无法获取相关数 据，那就更难判断了。" 负责收集和发布经济数据的政府机构在周三开始的政府停摆期间将不会开展相关工作。美国劳工统计局 原定于10月15日发布月度消费者价格报告，而美联储官员将于10月28日至29日举行下次议息会议。 古尔斯比重申了对近期服务业通胀回升的担忧，他表示这可能意味着在受关税影响最小的经济领域，价 格压力将持续存在。他表示，虽然有许多非政府来源的劳动力市场数据，但通胀统计数据并非如此。 古尔斯比表示："如果我们没有这些数据，那就麻烦了。" 2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周三表示，美国政府关门期间缺乏官方数据，这将使美联 储官员更难解读经济形势。 ...

若国会不能在周二午夜前通过新财年预算，美国联邦政府将于10月1日零时停摆。美国劳工部9月30日公 布的73页应急预案显示，一旦关门，旗下劳工统计局（BLS）将立即熄灯：所有数据发布、网络更新、问 卷调查全面暂停，投资者与决策者将陷入数据真空。 首当其冲的是本周五的9月非农就业报告。该数据是衡量劳动力市场冷暖的旗舰指标，也是美联储10月28- 29日议息会议前最关键的一块拼图。若停摆持续，非农将缺席，连同每周四的初请失业金、10月15日的9 月消费者价格指数（CPI）以及进出口价格、实际工资等约12份月报均将无限期推迟。 劳工部并非唯一受影响的部门，却是对金融市场冲击最直接的部门。过去十年，美国政府曾三度关门， 最长35天（2018—2019年），当时BLS被迫推迟了包括零售销售、GDP平减指数在内的多项数据，导致美 联储在次月会议上按兵不动。 历史可能重演：若停摆拖至10月中下旬，联储将同时失去就业与通胀双支柱，在支持进一步降息与警惕 通胀粘性的天平上更加左右为难。 众议院议长约翰逊周日提出的临时拨款案仍因边境墙与削减开支条款遭民主党与部分共和党人抵制，参 议院民主党领袖舒默直言方案注定流产。 华尔街策略师已 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 美联储理事米兰称，目前尚无关税引发通货膨胀的实质性证据，但这一点似乎正让美联储的其他决策者 犹豫不决。 ...

2025 年 9 月 25 日 总量研究 稳定币：从数字美元到霸权上链 ——《大国 博弈》系列第八十八篇（2025-07-25） 特朗普为何加速推进 232 调查？——《大国 博弈》第八十七篇（2025-07-09） 关税大限将至，特朗普如何抉择？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十六篇（2025-07-03） 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05- 12） 美国政府停摆：可能性与市场影响 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十九篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 一、新财年将近，美国政府停摆可能性增加 2026 新财年将近，美国政府资金将于 2025 年 9 月 30 日后停止供给，若新的拨款 法案未获通过，美国政府将面临停摆风险。一般而言，美国联邦政府运转资金来自 年度预算拨款。国会两党通常应在 10 月 1 日新财年开始前通过新的年度拨款法 ...

Core Insights - U.S. consumer spending showed unexpectedly strong momentum in August, with retail sales data increasing for the third consecutive month [1][2] - Real retail sales adjusted for inflation increased by 2.1% year-over-year, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [1][4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales in August rose by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%, and the previous month's increase of 0.5% [3] - Retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 0.7%, surpassing the expected 0.4% [3] - Retail sales excluding both automobiles and gasoline also rose by 0.7%, against an expectation of 0.4% [3] Sector Contributions - The growth in August was broad-based, with 9 out of 13 major categories reporting increases [1] - Online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores led the growth, likely reflecting back-to-school shopping [1] - Restaurant spending rebounded by 0.7% after a decline in the previous month [1] Economic Implications - The strong retail performance contrasts with market concerns about an economic slowdown and may influence Federal Reserve decision-making [7] - The "control group" sales, which exclude food services, auto dealers, building materials, and gas stations, rose by 0.7%, serving as a key indicator for consumer demand [7]

据美国彭博社报道，当地时间8月21日，美国司法部计划对美联储理事库克展开调查，并敦促美联储主席鲍威尔将其免职。 美国总统特朗普近来加大对美国联邦储备系统决策层施压。除一再批评鲍威尔坚持不降息的立场，他20日又在社交媒体上发文，要求美联储理事库克辞职。 特朗普还分享了美国媒体的一篇报道，内容是联邦住房金融署署长普尔特致信美国司法部长，呼吁对库克的两笔房产抵押贷款进行更严格审查。 据法新社报道，普尔特曾致信美国司法部长，呼吁对库克启动调查，并暗示她可能涉嫌刑事犯罪。 库克方面则回应称，她"无意因为一个帖子提出一些问题就被霸凌到辞去职务"，但自己会严肃对待有关其个人财务历史的问题。 库克2022年5月就任美联储理事，成为美国首名担任这一职务的黑人女性。她在2023年9月获批连任，任期至2038年。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly targeting Governor Lisa Cook, demanding her resignation and criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Pressure on Federal Reserve - Trump has publicly called for Lisa Cook to resign, stating "Cook must resign, now!!!" on his social media platform [1]. - He shared a Bloomberg report highlighting calls for stricter scrutiny of Cook's mortgage applications, which have raised allegations of potential misconduct [1]. Group 2: Response from Lisa Cook - Cook explained that the mortgage applications in question occurred before she joined the Federal Reserve and expressed her intent to address any reasonable inquiries regarding her financial history [2]. - She emphasized that she does not intend to resign due to social media posts and is committed to providing accurate information [2]. Group 3: Legal and Institutional Context - It remains unclear if the Justice Department will investigate Cook, as the President cannot arbitrarily dismiss Federal Reserve officials without just cause [3]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's refusal to lower interest rates has led to repeated attacks on both Powell and Cook, with Cook being the first Black woman to serve as a Fed Governor [3].