周一亚洲早盘，黄金市场保持平静，价格在每盎司4050 美元附近整理。 上周五金价曾短暂回升至4100 美元，但随后出现回吐，最终重新落回4050 美元一线。美元小幅走强， 金属板块整体温和上扬，白银、铂金和钯金均录得轻微涨幅。 市场对美联储决策的讨论持续发酵。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日谈到，劳动力市场已有降温迹象，未来 仍存在降低借贷成本的空间。虽然其他官员的声音相对谨慎，但这番表态依旧为金价带来短暂提振。 近期美国政府停摆影响了部分经济数据的发布时间，使市场对宏观环境的判断出现一定真空。 本周多项关键数据将陆续补位，包括零售销售、生产者价格指数以及失业金申请数量。这些数据被视为 观察经济温度的重要参考，也可能影响降息预期。目前期货市场显示，投资者预计下个月降息25 个基 点的可能性在六成以上。 自 10月下旬触及每盎司4380 美元的历史高位后，黄金进入横盘阶段。今年以来，金价整体仍保持明显 升势，涨幅约在55% 左右。贸易不确定性、地缘紧张情绪以及对部分国家财政状况的担忧，使避险需 求持续存在，为市场提供支撑。 短期来看，黄金走势仍由宏观预期主导。投资者正等待新的经济数据落地，在更清晰的信号出现前，金 价大 ...

比特币昨晚继续跟随美股下跌，贝莱德背后的投资者持续抛售比特币，目前还没有丝毫止跌迹象，这背后可能有散户不知道的真相，也许等大家都知道什 么原因跌的时候，行情才会止跌反弹拉升。 比特币暴跌之际，山寨已经不跟风了，反而部分山寨一路飞扬，这又是另一个信号，大盘已经影响不了一些优质山寨走势。 这几天就看比特币什么时候 止跌，等止跌了，山寨拉升会更加猛烈。 BTC BTC4小时级别暂时没有出现底部信号，依然处于找底状态，目前最低点89012，观察后续反弹高度： 1）反弹高度低于92370，认为还有下跌动力，继续下探。反弹高于92370，多头才能继续反弹，高于97520，将会有更大的反弹空间。 （2）以太坊目前我们并不建议明显抄底，必须等待比特币走势稳定后才能确认右侧信号。 ZEC ZEC开启大型收敛震荡区间，开始出货,目前下跌 15%,价格正在从较低时间框架的支撑位突破，显示出强烈的卖方压力。如果动量持续，可能会出现更深 的修正。 入场范围：585 – 590目标：T1: 565;T2: 552;T3: 540;止损：603 3）下方支撑情况；日线支撑区间83000-86400，周线支撑区间74600-86000是大级 ...

Core Insights - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended, leading to a backlog of data that will be released in the coming weeks, providing critical information for the market and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor have announced a timeline for the release of various economic data starting next week [1] - Key reports include the September non-farm payrolls on November 20, September real wage data on November 21, and the revised Q3 GDP on November 26 [1] - Additional reports will cover October personal income, spending, PCE price index, and the October international trade report on December 4, with the final Q3 GDP value set for December 19 [1] Group 2: Implications for the Federal Reserve - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will have complete data on employment and inflation before its meeting on December 9-10 [1] - The timely release of the October and November employment reports is crucial for the Fed's decision-making process [1]

Labor Market Insights - The ADP report indicates an average job loss of 11,250 per week over the four weeks leading up to October 25, suggesting a weak labor market and contradicting the idea of stabilization [1] - There are concerns that the recent government shutdown and layoffs of federal workers may be affecting the job figures, with potential for a rebound in the coming weeks [3] - Mixed data points are emerging, including a decline in small business confidence due to falling sales and demand, which is significant as small businesses are major employers [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading suggests that while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, it is not worsening, leaving the Fed with a wide range of options for their December meeting [5] - The decision on whether to cut rates will depend on the balance between wage inflation and job market conditions, with upcoming official data being crucial for understanding the current economic situation [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Jefferson, emphasizes that its decisions are based on data, outlook, and a balance of risks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Decision-Making Process** - The Federal Reserve's approach to decision-making involves a careful analysis of data and future economic outlooks, alongside an assessment of associated risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have gradually recovered to the range of $3980-$3990 after a sell-off, but current price momentum appears insufficient to challenge the psychological level of $4000 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.16%, reaching a one-month high, which could continue to support the dollar and exert pressure on the gold market [1] - The bond market is showing signs of an independent trend, influenced by slightly better-than-expected U.S. private sector economic data, which may impact the Federal Reserve's decision in December [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders are currently pricing in a 61% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but this is not guaranteed [1] - Any adjustments to the market's pricing of rate cut expectations will have a significant impact on gold in the coming weeks [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends - The upcoming period from December to January is traditionally a bullish season for precious metals [1]

Group 1 - The ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. has significant implications for both the economy and the livelihoods of federal employees, with many working without pay and others on forced leave [1][3][5] - Recent polls indicate that Congress's approval rating has dropped to 18%, highlighting public frustration over the political stalemate and its impact on ordinary citizens [5][10] - The delay in the release of key economic data, including the CPI, has created uncertainty in the markets, as analysts lack reliable indicators to assess economic conditions [8][19] Group 2 - The Senate's eighth vote failed to pass a funding bill, with a significant gap of 11 votes from the required threshold, reflecting deep partisan divisions over budget allocations [10][12] - The core disagreement between the two parties centers on funding for Medicaid, with Republicans advocating for spending cuts and Democrats insisting on maintaining support for low-income groups [12][15] - The ongoing political impasse has escalated tensions, particularly with former President Trump's announcement of a plan to permanently lay off federal employees, complicating negotiations further [17][19] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in making informed decisions due to the delayed CPI data, which is crucial for assessing inflation trends ahead of their upcoming meeting [19][24] - Historical context shows that previous shutdowns have had severe economic repercussions, and the current situation is more complex due to the intertwining issues of healthcare funding and economic data uncertainty [22][27] - The upcoming CPI data release on October 24 is seen as a potential turning point that could either facilitate negotiations or prolong the deadlock, with significant consequences for ordinary citizens [24][27]

Core Viewpoint - The current labor market in the U.S. shows no significant hiring or layoffs, with demand and supply contracting at a similar pace, indicating a stable yet cautious economic environment [1] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - U.S. companies are neither engaging in large-scale hiring nor layoffs, reflecting a balanced labor market [1] - Labor demand remains robust, particularly among high-income groups, suggesting a divergence in economic activity based on income levels [1] Group 2: Cost Management and Productivity - Companies are planning to pass on tariff costs to consumers, indicating a strategy to manage rising expenses [1] - There are signs of improving productivity, which may help alleviate some cost pressures faced by businesses [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers continue to spend, but with more caution compared to previous years, indicating a shift towards more selective purchasing decisions [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve Data Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges due to a reduction in available data, complicating its decision-making process [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, which are crucial for economic assessment [1] - The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, responsible for these reports, is significantly impacted by the shutdown, leading to potential longer delays in data collection and processing for October [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is currently relying on private sector data to evaluate the economy, but emphasized that this cannot replace government statistics, particularly for October data [1] Group 2 - High inflation typically necessitates the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, while a slowing job market would push for rate cuts [2] - In August, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, a significant drop from the revised 79,000 in July and well below market expectations [2] - The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9% year-over-year in August, marking the largest increase since January and remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis point rate cut due to the ongoing weakness in the job market [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown on October 1, 2025, has disrupted the flow of critical economic data, impacting decision-making for policymakers and investors [1][3][4] - Key economic indicators such as the monthly employment report and unemployment data are now delayed, leading to uncertainty in assessing the health of the economy [3][6][10] - The Federal Reserve is facing significant challenges in formulating monetary policy due to the lack of timely and accurate economic data, which is essential for balancing inflation control and employment stability [6][8][10] Group 2 - The market is experiencing heightened volatility as investors react to the uncertainty caused by the government shutdown, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index showing a notable increase [10][11] - Companies that rely on government contracts, such as construction and technology firms, are facing reduced orders and delayed payments, leading to declining stock prices and diminished investor confidence [11][10] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to fixed-income assets and maintain cash reserves to navigate the turbulent market conditions effectively [13][14]