美联储近期人事与政策动向引发全球市场高度关注。鲍威尔任期虽至2026年5月才结束，但围绕其继任安排及货币政策调整，已经出现密集动作。最新一系 列人事变动与提名，将在降息预期高企之际，直接影响美联储的决策格局及经济走势。 理事会席位变动加速 美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒已在本月8日正式卸任。她的任期原本应到2026年1月，提前离职为特朗普带来新的任命机会。特朗普随即提名现任白宫经济 顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰接任，任期同样至2026年1月31日。这是其第二任期内首次调整美联储理事会构成。 米兰生于1984年，拥有哈佛大学经济学博士学位，曾在美国财政部负责经济政策事务，并长期参与特朗普政府的贸易与金融政策制定。他的加入，被认为将 令美联储决策层结构出现新的变化，在降息讨论升温的背景下，这一人事安排尤其引人关注。 主席人选名单扩大 美国财政部长贝森特正主导鲍威尔继任者的遴选工作。消息显示，候选人数量已扩至约十人，其中包括前圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德，以及曾在小布 什执政时期担任经济顾问的马克·苏默林。此名单还保留了凯文·哈塞特、凯文·沃什与现任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒等人。 布拉德离开圣路易斯联储后执掌普渡大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that decisions cannot be made based solely on the June projections (dot plot) six weeks later [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process is dynamic and cannot rely on past forecasts [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of current economic conditions over previous predictions [1] - The statement indicates potential shifts in monetary policy based on evolving economic data [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that decisions cannot be made based solely on the June forecasts (dot plot) in six weeks [1] Group 1 - Powell emphasized the need for updated information before making future decisions [1] - The statement indicates potential uncertainty in monetary policy direction [1]

Group 1 - A survey conducted by Reuters indicates that out of 98 analysts surveyed, 66 expressed concerns regarding the quality of U.S. statistical data and its impact on Federal Reserve decision-making [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, while silver is predicted to break through and rise [2][6]. - Copper prices are supported by the firm domestic spot market [2][10]. - Zinc is under pressure and expected to operate under stress [2][13]. - The downside for lead prices may be relatively limited [2][16]. - Tin prices are weakening [2][19]. - Aluminum is under pressure during the off - season, alumina will fluctuate within a range, and the operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is declining [2][23]. - The support from the nickel ore end has loosened, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all declined, with daily and night - session fluctuations. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T + D showed different trends, with some increases and some decreases. Trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. The US Treasury Secretary said there was no need to worry about the deadline for suspending the imposition of some tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation situation was good [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - positive outlook [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract declined slightly, while the London Copper 3M electronic disk rose slightly. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various spot - related price differences all changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There were also news about trade tariffs and copper trade activities [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. 3.3 Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [16]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. 3.5 Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Tin main contract and the London Tin 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, there were news about the US CPI and trade - related events [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [22]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all had different degrees of change. There were also data on inventories, production costs, and corporate profits [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There was also news about the US - China tariff negotiation situation [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and various price - related data of nickel and stainless steel futures had corresponding changes. There were also data on the industrial chain, such as the prices of high - nickel pig iron and the profit margins of nickel plate imports [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were news about the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the production status of nickel - related projects in Indonesia, and the environmental issues in the Indonesian nickel - mining area [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31].

Group 1 - US stock market showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising over 4%, pushing the Nasdaq to a new high [1] - June core CPI in the US increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, remaining below expectations for five consecutive months [1] - US Treasury Secretary indicated that there is no need to worry about the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs on China, stating that negotiations are in a "good position" [1] Group 2 - Trump announced an agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff, which is lower than the previously threatened level [1] - The EU noted significant differences in positions between the US and Europe, with a 30% tariff causing confusion among US negotiators [1] - Nvidia's CEO Huang Renxun stated that the US government has approved export licenses to begin selling H20 chips to the Chinese market [1] Group 3 - US Treasury Secretary Becerra mentioned that the formal process for selecting Powell's successor has begun, with the selection proceeding at Trump's pace [1] - JPMorgan CEO issued a clear warning about the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - A significant setback occurred for the cryptocurrency regulation bill supported by Trump, as it failed to pass in the House [1] Group 4 - Apple is expected to launch its first iPhone Fold in the second half of next year, with a starting price of $1,800 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CPI report is perceived as somewhat subjective, showing slightly weaker data than some forecasts, but the impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in July and August [1] Group 1 - The CPI data is slightly below expectations from various forecasting agencies [1] - The performance of commodity prices in June was relatively strong [1] - The report does not alter the fundamental views of those who believe the worst of tariff-driven price increases is yet to come [1] Group 2 - For those who think inflation transmission will be slower and less impactful due to companies striving to maintain market share in a weakening demand environment, the report also does not change their perspective [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that future decisions will be data-dependent [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data to guide its monetary policy decisions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of inflation data in shaping the Fed's approach [1] - The Fed's strategy may adapt based on evolving economic indicators [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that it is wise to wait and gather more information before making further decisions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently in a phase of information gathering to assess economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has not yet decided on the actions to be taken regarding monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently assessing the economic conditions before making any decisions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of data in guiding future policy actions [1] - There is ongoing uncertainty in the market regarding interest rate adjustments [1]