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一场不容错过的对话!两个“看多中国的人”深谈稀土博弈、制度韧性与中美格局重估……
聪明投资者· 2025-11-04 07:10
Core Viewpoint - The dialogue between Wang Guohui and Ma Kaishuo at the APS 30th anniversary forum provides insights into the evolving dynamics of the US-China relationship, particularly in the context of the "Thucydides Trap" and the potential for investment opportunities in China despite geopolitical tensions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Perspective - Wang Guohui highlights that the US's multi-dimensional containment strategy against China is showing signs of fatigue, while China's structural advantages in areas like rare earths and supply chain capabilities are being revalued by the market [3][4]. - APS has shifted its investment strategy to focus entirely on China, believing that market concerns were already priced in, leading to a favorable investment environment [11][12]. - The Chinese stock market has experienced a bull market for 13 consecutive months, and the bond market has rebounded for 24 months, indicating resilience in the face of external pressures [17]. Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - The dialogue addresses the critical moment in US-China competition, with both parties acknowledging the need to not underestimate the US's capabilities and the importance of China's institutional stability and technological accumulation [4][19]. - The US has engaged in systematic competition with China across five fronts: trade, technology, finance, public opinion, and geopolitical influence, but signs suggest that these strategies may be failing [16][19]. - The discussion emphasizes the significance of rare earths in the geopolitical landscape, with China controlling 90% of global rare earth processing, which is crucial for military and high-tech sectors [18][25]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Both Wang and Ma express optimism about China's long-term growth potential, with Ma suggesting that China's economic rise could continue for at least another century, driven by its historical resilience and civilizational strength [54][58]. - The conversation anticipates that the US will continue to view China's rise as a threat, leading to ongoing competition, but also hints at the possibility of cooperation in certain areas [33][49]. - The dialogue concludes with reflections on the need for stability and predictability in China, as well as the recognition that the US will need to engage with the global community, including China, to address shared challenges [32][40].