【文/观察者网专栏作者 沈逸】 大家好，欢迎来到本期的《逸语道破》。今天更新的内容是关于昨晚的中美元首通话。2025年11月24 日，中美元首再次通话，双方在釜山刚刚举行了双边会晤，而此次通话，于无声处听惊雷，向各方清晰 展示了中美关系正进入一个全新的阶段，相互成就、共同繁荣，成为这个阶段最新的特征。 中方发布的纪要清晰明确，大概分为四个部分： 第一部分是对釜山会晤及后续发展的评估，其中最值得关注的是，中方明确提出"相互成就、共同繁 荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住这个势头，坚持正确方向，秉持平等尊重、互惠态度，拉 长合作清单，压缩问题清单，争取更多积极进展，为中美关系打开新的合作空间，更好造福两国人民和 世界人民。 第二部分是围绕台湾问题的清晰表态。中方领导人阐述了中方在台湾问题上的原则立场，强调台湾回归 中国是战后世界秩序的重要组成部分。中美曾并肩抗击法西斯和军国主义，当前更应该共同维护好二战 的胜利成果。 第三部分是美方的回应。特朗普表示，"习近平主席是伟大的领导人，我同习近平主席在釜山的会晤非 常愉快，完全赞同您对两国关系的看法。双方正在全面落实釜山会晤达成的重要共识，中国当年为二战 胜利发挥 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue between Wang Guohui and Ma Kaishuo at the APS 30th anniversary forum provides insights into the evolving dynamics of the US-China relationship, particularly in the context of the "Thucydides Trap" and the potential for investment opportunities in China despite geopolitical tensions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Perspective - Wang Guohui highlights that the US's multi-dimensional containment strategy against China is showing signs of fatigue, while China's structural advantages in areas like rare earths and supply chain capabilities are being revalued by the market [3][4]. - APS has shifted its investment strategy to focus entirely on China, believing that market concerns were already priced in, leading to a favorable investment environment [11][12]. - The Chinese stock market has experienced a bull market for 13 consecutive months, and the bond market has rebounded for 24 months, indicating resilience in the face of external pressures [17]. Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - The dialogue addresses the critical moment in US-China competition, with both parties acknowledging the need to not underestimate the US's capabilities and the importance of China's institutional stability and technological accumulation [4][19]. - The US has engaged in systematic competition with China across five fronts: trade, technology, finance, public opinion, and geopolitical influence, but signs suggest that these strategies may be failing [16][19]. - The discussion emphasizes the significance of rare earths in the geopolitical landscape, with China controlling 90% of global rare earth processing, which is crucial for military and high-tech sectors [18][25]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Both Wang and Ma express optimism about China's long-term growth potential, with Ma suggesting that China's economic rise could continue for at least another century, driven by its historical resilience and civilizational strength [54][58]. - The conversation anticipates that the US will continue to view China's rise as a threat, leading to ongoing competition, but also hints at the possibility of cooperation in certain areas [33][49]. - The dialogue concludes with reflections on the need for stability and predictability in China, as well as the recognition that the US will need to engage with the global community, including China, to address shared challenges [32][40].

不管有无准备，我们都必须面对大变局。何谓大变局，是不是可以说， 大变局就是全球竞争格局发 生重大变化。 其中，比较根本的是美国的变化，因为美国的变化对全球有重要影响，对中国的发展 有特别重要的影响。中国走上和平发展、改革开放之路，离不开在冷战终结前后中美关系从对抗转趋 缓和，中国抓住了当时全球变局带来的历史机遇。 1978年10月，中美两国还没有建交，时任北京大学校长周培源受命带队中国科协代表团与美国国家 科学基金会达成关于派遣留学生的11项口头谅解。1978年年底，首批中国留美学生抵达美国。 1979年1月，这份口头谅解协议在邓小平访美时正式签署。1979年7月，中美在北京达成双方互享 贸易最惠国待遇协议，两国市场互相开放。虽然还需要年度审议，但不论经过多少风风雨雨，中美贸 易互惠协议一直延续，直到2000年，美国国会通过对中国的永久正常贸易关系议案，此后中国也正 式加入世贸组织。1992年10月，华晨中国（CBA）在纽交所挂牌，发行500万普通股，每股招股价 16美元，被超额认购85倍，募资7000多万美元，上市首日该股股价劲升25%。我翻看过那份招股 书，封面上用小字披露风险，包括公司所在国度曾发生过" ...

屈中庭繪質企'念币10人金价,未去ஆ车费系統, # 外壁牆 48.80 = 8,800 26.120 24.20 = 金花菜 2.6.26 :420 : 2022 1 800 and the 食发生就是常态势不是的【 UFF-M LESACE 3826 a $44 :00 6:4 n a love and of the completed to and the all of the completed 0 728 15 168 a 13120 Amarian == andid (2) ) ONI 2017年度 0 (69 92 888 NEW STANK ST MARK * 8.843 and 19 67.939 曾感解答案 res cars 5 2.800 car 224 258 91,137 GM 199 黄金在炒，而黄金的话题更是被专家和自媒体炒上了天。 2025 年以来黄金价格涨幅近 45%，中国央行已经连续 10 个月增持黄金。但要清楚一点，美联储降息不是黄金上涨的根本，只是波动的理由；美联储加息 时，若存在通胀预期，黄金照样涨。 OATAHAITH 排滑脚属 电商用品了 眼看看看 15.550 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global central bank reserve structure is undergoing a significant transformation, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, marking gold's ascendance as a primary reserve asset [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Reserves - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 7.402 million ounces (approximately 2302.28 tons) by the end of August, with a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) [1]. - As of the end of August, China's gold reserve value rose by $9.858 billion to $253.843 billion, with gold reserves accounting for 7.64% of total foreign exchange reserves, a historical high [1]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that over 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Central Bank Behavior - Three main factors are reshaping central bank asset allocation: the deepening cracks in the dollar-centric international monetary system, high U.S. debt levels undermining dollar credibility, and the restructuring of global order prompting central banks to accumulate gold to mitigate political risks [2][3]. - The freezing of Russian reserve assets has accelerated gold accumulation among central banks, with Russia leading this trend [3]. - The U.S. federal government debt is projected to reach 124.3% of GDP by the end of 2024, leading to a decline in the ability to service debt, prompting other countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold [3]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Reserve Strategies - A structural shift in central bank gold reserve strategies is evident, with 59% of central banks opting to store gold domestically, an increase of 18 percentage points from 2024 [4]. - 73% of central banks anticipate a decline in the share of U.S. dollar reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [4].

Core Insights - The global central bank reserve landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 in terms of reserve composition, marking a milestone for gold as a reserve asset [1] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 7.402 million ounces (approximately 2302.28 tons) by the end of August, with a reserve value increase of $9.858 billion to $253.843 billion, representing a historical high of 7.64% of total foreign reserves [1][2] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2019, with 43% planning to add to their gold holdings despite rising gold prices [2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Central Bank Gold Purchases - The deepening cracks in the U.S.-centric international monetary system, highlighted by the freezing of Russian reserve assets, have prompted central banks to accelerate gold accumulation as a direct response [3] - The high level of U.S. government debt, projected to reach 124.3% of GDP by the end of 2024, undermines the credibility of the dollar, leading other countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold as a safer, inflation-resistant alternative [3] - The restructuring of the global order and increased political risks have led central banks, especially in emerging markets, to prefer gold over dollar assets to hedge against potential structural risks in the dollar system [4] Group 2: Changes in Central Bank Reserve Strategies - A structural shift in central bank gold reserve strategies is evident, with 59% of central banks opting to store gold domestically, an increase of 18 percentage points from 2024 [4] - 73% of central banks anticipate a decline in the share of dollar reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating tensions between China and the United States, highlighting the potential for conflict to extend beyond traditional battlefields into cyberspace and outer space [1][16] - The historical context of Sino-American relations is outlined, noting significant events such as Nixon's visit in 1972 and China's accession to the WTO in 2001, which marked a shift towards economic interdependence [3][5] - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration in 2018, involving tariffs on $550 billion worth of Chinese goods, is identified as a key trigger for current tensions [7] Group 2 - China's Belt and Road Initiative is mentioned as a strategy to expand its market presence, with trade agreements signed with over 150 countries and trade volume exceeding $2 trillion by 2024 [9] - The military dynamics in the South China Sea are highlighted, with the U.S. Navy conducting over 120 freedom of navigation operations in 2024, while China enhances its military presence in the region [10][12] - The article notes the significant military sales from the U.S. to Taiwan, including an $8 billion arms deal in 2025, and China's corresponding military exercises in the Taiwan Strait [12][27] Group 3 - Cyber warfare is emphasized as a primary threat, with incidents such as the 2021 Colonial Pipeline attack and accusations of Chinese hacking resulting in significant economic losses [18][19] - The potential for a catastrophic impact on global financial systems due to cyber attacks is discussed, with simulations indicating losses of up to $2.5 trillion from a single incident [21] - The militarization of space is addressed, with both nations developing capabilities to target each other's satellites, raising concerns about the implications for global navigation and communication systems [23] Group 4 - The article warns that the South China Sea could be a flashpoint for conflict, with U.S. naval operations leading to close encounters with Chinese forces, increasing the risk of miscalculation [25] - Cultural and ideological differences are cited as exacerbating tensions, with U.S. narratives framing China's rise as a threat to global order [29][30] - The potential global economic repercussions of a conflict are outlined, estimating that a disruption in the South China Sea could lead to over $1 trillion in trade losses [32] Group 5 - The article suggests that diplomatic efforts are crucial to avoid war, highlighting recent high-level talks between U.S. and Chinese officials aimed at addressing trade disputes [34] - China's defense policy is characterized as defensive, focusing on economic stability and regional cooperation, with significant investments in renewable energy [36] - International collaboration is emphasized, with initiatives like the Digital Silk Road and discussions on space demilitarization reflecting a desire for constructive engagement [38][40]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the U.S. notion of "promoting peace through strength" is a manifestation of hegemonic thinking, aiming for military action rather than dialogue [1] - Liu Jianchao highlights that under such a mindset, the "Thucydides Trap" becomes an inevitable fate for great powers, with smaller nations often forced to choose sides and become victims of great power rivalries [1] - The article discusses the fundamental changes in the nature of warfare today, warning that an obsession with zero-sum games and absolute security, including the use of AI in warfare, could lead to catastrophic consequences for humanity [1] Group 2 - Liu Jianchao asserts that the peace and stability in Asia over the past 80 years is attributed to the region's countries having their own values and methods for problem-solving, emphasizing a preference for dialogue and negotiation over military solutions [2] - The article notes that military solutions are seen as temporary fixes, while negotiated solutions are viewed as long-term resolutions [2]

Group 1 - The forum aimed to provide a high-end platform for Chinese companies to tackle challenges in going global amidst deep restructuring of global supply chains [1] - The discussion highlighted the importance of understanding the dynamics of US-China relations and the implications for Chinese enterprises seeking to expand internationally [1][2] Group 2 - The concept of the Thucydides Trap was debated, with experts arguing that a direct conflict between China and the US is unlikely due to the catastrophic consequences of war [2] - The US is perceived to be haunted by two nightmares: the fear of China surpassing it and the fear that a powerful China would seek global dominance, which experts argue is unfounded [3] Group 3 - Chinese companies are encouraged to champion free trade as a means to secure their international presence, contrasting with the US's recent shift away from free trade principles [3][4] - The trade volume between China and the US has significantly increased over the past two decades, indicating a complex interdependence that is difficult to alter [4] Group 4 - The ongoing tariff war initiated by the US is viewed as ultimately self-defeating, as tariffs are primarily borne by American consumers rather than foreign entities [4] - Chinese companies are urged to capitalize on the current situation, as losing the trade war could jeopardize decades of economic progress [4] Group 5 - Chinese enterprises are advised to adopt a more strategic approach to international expansion, learning from successful foreign companies operating in China [5] - Successful international ventures require understanding local markets and consumer preferences, as demonstrated by the examples of Chinese food brands adapting to foreign tastes [5] Group 6 - The overarching message is for China to focus on internal development and stability while contributing positively to global trade and economic cooperation [6] - Emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong domestic foundation, the experts advocate for a steady and cautious approach to international engagement [6]

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China regarding rare earth elements, with a critical deadline approaching on July 8, which marks the end of a tariff suspension period [3][6] - The U.S. is particularly anxious due to its heavy reliance on China for rare earth supplies, with 80% of its needs being imported from China [7][9] - China's response, articulated by Wang Yi, emphasizes a cooperative yet principled approach, encapsulated in the phrase "和而不同" (harmony without uniformity), indicating a willingness to dialogue without yielding to threats [13][15][18] U.S. Concerns - The U.S. Department of Defense has issued a report indicating that the rare earth shortage warning index has reached its highest level in a decade, highlighting both economic and national security risks [10][11] - Major defense contractors have warned the Pentagon that delays in rare earth supplies could impact critical military projects [9] China's Strategy - China's approach to the U.S. ultimatum involves a structured management of rare earth exports, asserting that all applications will be approved according to legal standards, thereby maintaining control over the export process [34][35] - This strategy aligns with WTO rules and allows China to manage exports flexibly while countering U.S. pressure [35][39] Global Reactions - The situation has caused global concern, with rare earth prices spiking by 12% within 24 hours and trading volumes at the London Metal Exchange reaching a three-year high [24] - European and Japanese markets are particularly sensitive to the potential disruption of rare earth supplies, with both regions expressing urgency for dialogue to resolve the conflict [26][28] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has warned that a significant disruption in global rare earth supplies could lead to losses exceeding $2.8 trillion in the high-tech sector [30] Implications for Future Relations - The article suggests that the ongoing tensions are not merely about rare earths but also about redefining global resource governance, with China positioning itself as a key player in establishing new rules [37][39] - The concept of "和而不同" reflects a desire for a cooperative framework that acknowledges differences while seeking common interests, indicating a potential shift in how global relations may evolve [39][41]