Workflow
新供给侧
icon
Search documents
如何从更宏观层面理解目前的科技牛市
集思录· 2025-09-26 14:00
Core Viewpoint - The current bull market is characterized by a stark divide, with technology sectors like chips, optical modules, innovative drugs, and robotics experiencing significant gains, while traditional sectors such as banking, insurance, real estate, and consumption are underperforming [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bull market is not uniform; technology stocks are surging while traditional blue-chip stocks are lagging behind [1]. - The current economic cycle is driven by a new wave of technological innovation, particularly in AI, which is expected to be more significant than the previous internet and mobile internet revolutions [2]. - The shift towards AI and related industries, including autonomous driving and humanoid robots, is the main theme of this technological revolution [2]. Group 2: Economic Cycles - The technological revolution is anticipated to last for 3-5 years, with supply-side innovations leading the way before demand-side opportunities emerge [2]. - The previous technological cycle was supported by infrastructure changes driven by telecom operators and smartphone manufacturers, leading to the rise of platform companies like Google and Amazon [1]. Group 3: Investment Implications - The current bull market is seen as a supply-side bull market, with macroeconomic cycles providing underlying support, making a switch to demand-side consumption unlikely in the short term [2]. - New consumption opportunities will arise from innovative applications based on new infrastructure, rather than from traditional sectors benefiting from urbanization and real estate cycles [2].