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美元、英镑、新元:美债需求与通胀左右汇率走向
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 13:53
Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that fluctuating U.S. policies may lead to a weaker dollar, as overseas investors might reduce their allocation to U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over returns [1] Group 1: U.S. Dollar Outlook - The dollar is currently trading within a narrow range, awaiting the U.S. July CPI report on Tuesday [1] - Recent employment data has weakened, raising near-term rate cut expectations, which contributed to the dollar's decline last week [1] - The impact of import taxes on inflation is being closely monitored, as it may influence the dollar's trajectory [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment and Treasury Demand - A reduction in foreign investment appetite could pressure both U.S. Treasury financing costs and the dollar [1] - If this week's CPI indicates limited transmission of import taxes, expectations for rate cuts may rise, further weakening the dollar [1] Group 3: Currency Movements and Market Sentiment - The British pound's short-term performance may be influenced by data revisions and guidance from the Bank of England [1] - The Singapore dollar is expected to experience range-bound trading, with market sentiment and the dollar's direction being key drivers [1] - Overall, policy uncertainty is amplifying, with "data + policy communication" dominating the rhythm of the currency market this week [1]