Core Viewpoint - The British pound is likely to face further downward pressure due to weak GDP data released on Friday, indicating economic contraction in May [1] Economic Data - UK GDP unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in May, highlighting downside risks to economic growth [1] - The weak economic performance has strengthened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August, unless June inflation data shows unexpected improvement [1] Inflation and Market Sentiment - Stable inflation may provide some short-term support for the pound; however, medium-term outlook remains bleak due to fiscal tightening and weak labor market data [1] - Monthly GDP contraction further suggests that the pound will continue to face sustained pressure [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is experiencing low-level fluctuations around 98, approaching its yearly low, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting [1] - Market anticipates the Fed will maintain interest rates, but the dot plot and Powell's comments will be crucial indicators for future monetary policy [1] - Recent weak economic data from the US has increased expectations for two rate cuts this year, diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [1] Group 2 - The euro has seen limited gains despite a better-than-expected German ZEW economic sentiment index, with the euro/USD rising due to declining US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) have slightly decreased, with the deposit facility rate projected at 1.78% for December [3] - The ECB reported an increase in overnight loan facility usage to €9 million, while overnight deposit facility usage rose to €2,711.169 billion, indicating ample market liquidity [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate at 0.5% and announced a slower pace of bond purchase reduction, reflecting caution regarding market liquidity and economic outlook [7] - The Bank of Japan's governor highlighted uncertainties from US trade policies that could impact corporate decisions and economic conditions [7] Group 4 - The British pound's net long positions surged by 50% to 51,634, the highest in seven months, amid expectations of a potential dovish signal from the Bank of England [6] - If UK inflation data falls below expectations, the likelihood of the Bank of England maintaining rates while signaling potential cuts may increase [6] Group 5 - New Zealand's economy is projected to grow by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, exceeding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecast, though this prediction carries significant uncertainty [7] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision on interest rates in July will depend on upcoming economic data [7]

Core Viewpoint - The re-establishment of UK-EU relations post-Brexit may provide mild support for the British pound, although it will not fundamentally change the currency's dynamics [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming UK inflation data and the services index are critical, with expectations that the services index may finally show a decline [1] Central Bank Insights - The speech by the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, could bolster the pound as he opposes the decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and favors maintaining the current rate [1] Agreement Details - The recently announced UK-EU agreement encompasses various sectors including security, energy, tourism, trade, and fisheries [1]