Market Overview - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, reaching a historical high before a sharp decline of $55, testing the $3600 support level [1][15] - After hitting a high near $3658, gold prices faced another drop, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [2][14] Recent Performance - Gold broke previous highs, continuing its upward trend before experiencing a sudden drop during the U.S. trading session [6][7] - The market saw a vertical decline over two hours, with a drop of $50, reflecting heightened market instability [8] Technical Analysis - Current support levels are being tested at $3614 and $3578, with potential for a rebound [13][14] - Resistance levels are identified at $3648 and $3675, where short positions may be considered [10][14] Influencing Factors - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly an airstrike in Qatar, has increased risk aversion, contributing to gold's price surge [15] - U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant decline, indicating a weakening labor market and supporting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [15] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including the U.S. PPI and wholesale sales figures, are expected to impact market sentiment and gold prices [17] - The CPI results have shown negative figures, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - China has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, marking a shift in investment strategy amid changing economic conditions [1][3]. Group 1: US Treasury Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China holds $756.4 billion in US Treasury bonds, having increased its holdings by $1 million, marking the first increase since March [1]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $126 million, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $487 million [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of US securities by $77.8 billion, with private foreign investors contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign investors reversing from net selling to net buying of $70.5 billion [1]. - The net increase in long-term US securities was $192.3 billion, driven primarily by private foreign investors who net bought $154.6 billion [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Implications - A report suggests that if the momentum in US stocks weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased investment in US Treasury bonds [2]. - Concerns over stagflation due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker dollar, impacting the volatility of US stocks and bonds [3].

Core Viewpoint - China has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, marking a shift in investment strategy amid changing economic conditions [1][3]. Group 1: US Treasury Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China holds $756.4 billion in US Treasury bonds, having increased its holdings by $1 billion, marking the first increase since March [1][3]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $12.6 billion, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $48.7 billion [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of US securities by $77.8 billion, with private foreign investors contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign investors increasing by $70.5 billion [1]. - The net increase in US long-term securities was $192.3 billion, primarily driven by private foreign investors who net increased by $154.6 billion [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Market Dynamics - A report from CICC suggests that if US stock market momentum weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into US Treasury bonds [2]. - The US economy is expected to slow down, which, combined with a reassessment of risk appetite and rising expectations for interest rate cuts, may rejuvenate demand for US Treasury bonds [2]. - Concerns over stagflation due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker dollar, impacting the volatility of US stocks and bonds [3].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that fluctuating U.S. policies may lead to a weaker dollar, as overseas investors might reduce their allocation to U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over returns [1] Group 1: U.S. Dollar Outlook - The dollar is currently trading within a narrow range, awaiting the U.S. July CPI report on Tuesday [1] - Recent employment data has weakened, raising near-term rate cut expectations, which contributed to the dollar's decline last week [1] - The impact of import taxes on inflation is being closely monitored, as it may influence the dollar's trajectory [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment and Treasury Demand - A reduction in foreign investment appetite could pressure both U.S. Treasury financing costs and the dollar [1] - If this week's CPI indicates limited transmission of import taxes, expectations for rate cuts may rise, further weakening the dollar [1] Group 3: Currency Movements and Market Sentiment - The British pound's short-term performance may be influenced by data revisions and guidance from the Bank of England [1] - The Singapore dollar is expected to experience range-bound trading, with market sentiment and the dollar's direction being key drivers [1] - Overall, policy uncertainty is amplifying, with "data + policy communication" dominating the rhythm of the currency market this week [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal budget deficit expanded to $316 billion in May, bringing the cumulative deficit for the fiscal year to $1.36 trillion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with interest payments in May exceeding $9.2 billion, making it the third-largest federal expenditure after Medicare and Social Security [1] - Despite a 15% year-on-year increase in May tax revenue, the continuous rise in spending (up 8% year-on-year) has led to an expanding budget deficit [1] Group 2 - The auction of $39 billion in 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio indicating robust investor interest despite concerns over rising supply and trade policies [2] - The winning yield for the 10-year bonds was 4.421%, slightly lower than pre-auction market expectations, reflecting investors' willingness to accept lower returns [2] - Domestic bidders were particularly active, accounting for 20.5% of the auction, significantly higher than the usual 14.5% [2] Group 3 - The rising debt levels and deficit as a percentage of GDP, now exceeding 6%, are raising long-term concerns among market participants [3] - Prominent figures in finance, including CEOs from JPMorgan and BlackRock, have warned that the high debt burden could lead to financial market instability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, speculated that digital assets could create a demand for U.S. Treasury bonds amounting to as much as $2 trillion [1] Group 1 - The potential demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is significantly influenced by the rise of digital assets [1] - The estimated demand of $2 trillion highlights the growing intersection between digital finance and traditional government securities [1]