Core Viewpoint - China has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, marking a shift in investment strategy amid changing economic conditions [1][3]. Group 1: US Treasury Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China holds $756.4 billion in US Treasury bonds, having increased its holdings by $1 million, marking the first increase since March [1]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $126 million, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $487 million [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of US securities by $77.8 billion, with private foreign investors contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign investors reversing from net selling to net buying of $70.5 billion [1]. - The net increase in long-term US securities was $192.3 billion, driven primarily by private foreign investors who net bought $154.6 billion [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Implications - A report suggests that if the momentum in US stocks weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased investment in US Treasury bonds [2]. - Concerns over stagflation due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker dollar, impacting the volatility of US stocks and bonds [3].

Core Viewpoint - China has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, marking a shift in investment strategy amid changing economic conditions [1][3]. Group 1: US Treasury Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China holds $756.4 billion in US Treasury bonds, having increased its holdings by $1 billion, marking the first increase since March [1][3]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $12.6 billion, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $48.7 billion [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of US securities by $77.8 billion, with private foreign investors contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign investors increasing by $70.5 billion [1]. - The net increase in US long-term securities was $192.3 billion, primarily driven by private foreign investors who net increased by $154.6 billion [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Market Dynamics - A report from CICC suggests that if US stock market momentum weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into US Treasury bonds [2]. - The US economy is expected to slow down, which, combined with a reassessment of risk appetite and rising expectations for interest rate cuts, may rejuvenate demand for US Treasury bonds [2]. - Concerns over stagflation due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker dollar, impacting the volatility of US stocks and bonds [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. federal budget deficit expanded to $316 billion in May, bringing the cumulative deficit for the fiscal year to $1.36 trillion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with interest payments in May exceeding $9.2 billion, making it the third-largest federal expenditure after Medicare and Social Security [1] - Despite a 15% year-on-year increase in May tax revenue, the continuous rise in spending (up 8% year-on-year) has led to an expanding budget deficit [1] Group 2 - The auction of $39 billion in 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio indicating robust investor interest despite concerns over rising supply and trade policies [2] - The winning yield for the 10-year bonds was 4.421%, slightly lower than pre-auction market expectations, reflecting investors' willingness to accept lower returns [2] - Domestic bidders were particularly active, accounting for 20.5% of the auction, significantly higher than the usual 14.5% [2] Group 3 - The rising debt levels and deficit as a percentage of GDP, now exceeding 6%, are raising long-term concerns among market participants [3] - Prominent figures in finance, including CEOs from JPMorgan and BlackRock, have warned that the high debt burden could lead to financial market instability [3]

美国财长贝森特谈及对美国国债潜在需求的臆测，宣称：数字资产对美债存在高达2万亿美元的需求。 ...