Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks are bearish on the US dollar, predicting a decline as the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 5% drop in the first half of next year [1][2]. Group 1: Predictions on the US Dollar - Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs anticipate a weakening of the dollar in 2026 due to the Fed's continued easing while other central banks maintain or raise rates [2]. - The Bloomberg consensus predicts a 3% decline in the dollar index by the end of 2026 [2]. - Morgan Stanley's David Adams states that the dollar has ample room for further depreciation, expecting a 5% drop in the first half of next year [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - A weaker dollar is expected to have a chain reaction on the US economy, increasing import costs, enhancing the value of overseas profits for companies, and boosting exports [4]. - The shift of investor funds to emerging markets for higher yields could extend the rally in these markets, with significant returns recorded in carry trades since 2009 [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Currency Trends - Analysts note that the dollar tends to depreciate when global economic performance is strong, with G10 currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars benefiting from better-than-expected data [5]. - Some institutions, like Citigroup and Standard Chartered, maintain a bullish outlook on the dollar, citing the strength of the US economy driven by AI and potential international capital inflows [5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve has raised its growth forecast for 2026 while announcing a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [6]. - Market expectations include two more 25 basis point cuts next year, with a focus on the new Fed chair's potential influence on future rate decisions [6].

德意志银行（DB）、高盛集团（GS）等华尔街投行预测，随着美联储持续下调利率，美元（DX=F） 明年将重启下跌走势。 今年上半年，受特朗普总统贸易战引发全球市场动荡的影响，美元出现自上世纪 70 年代初以来最大幅 度的下跌；而在过去六个月里，美元汇率已趋于企稳。 但策略师预计，2026 年美元将再度走弱。原因在于，美联储将继续实施宽松货币政策，而其他主要央 行却会维持利率不变或逐步转向加息。这种政策分歧将促使投资者抛售美债，转而将资金投向收益率更 高的国家。 因此，逾六家大型投行的预测人士普遍认为，美元兑日元、欧元、英镑等主要货币汇率将走低。彭博社 汇总的共识预测，一项被广泛追踪的美元指数到 2026 年底将贬值约 3%。 "市场有充足空间消化更深幅度的降息周期，" 摩根士丹利 G10 外汇策略主管戴维・亚当斯表示，该行 预计美元上半年将下跌 5%，"这为美元进一步走弱留足了余地。" 预计此次美元下跌的幅度会更为温和，且波及范围也不会像今年这般广泛。今年美元兑所有主要货币均 出现贬值，导致彭博美元即期指数年内跌幅接近 8%，创 2017 年以来最大年度跌幅。此外，这一前景 还取决于美国就业市场将持续疲软的预期 ...