周一，随着特朗普政府升级对美联储的攻击，"抛售美国"的情绪在市场蔓延，引发了市场对美联储独立 性的担忧。 美元、美国国债和美股期货下跌，此前美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国刑事起诉的威胁是货币政策分歧的 后果。虽然跌幅相对较小，但关于美联储独立性这一热点问题及其对美国市场的影响再次成为投资者辩 论的焦点。 管理着超过6000亿美元资产的Allspring Global Investments的投资组合经理Gary Tan表示："任何引发对 美联储独立性质疑的事态发展，都会增加美国货币政策的不确定性。这可能会加强现有的去美元化多元 配置趋势，并增加对黄金等传统对冲工具的兴趣。" 上周日晚间，鲍威尔表示，美联储收到了司法部的大陪审团传票，这与他就美联储总部正在进行的翻新 工程发表的国会证词有关。这是特朗普政府对抗美联储的最新事件，此前还包括试图解雇理事库克以及 多次要求大幅降息。 周一，彭博美元指数下跌0.3%，为去年12月23日以来的最大跌幅。标普500指数期货下跌0.7%。10年期 美债收益率上涨3个基点至4.20%，有望创下去年9月以来的最高收盘价。30年期美债收益率上涨5个基 点至4.86%。 一些策略师警告称 ...

智通财经APP获悉，特朗普政府周末升级对美联储的攻击，引发市场对央行独立性的深切担忧，周 一"抛售美国"情绪席卷市场。 在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示美国刑事起诉威胁是货币政策分歧的后果后，美元、美债及美股期货 在亚洲早盘交易中全线下跌。从试图解雇理事丽莎·库克，到反复呼吁激进降息，特朗普对美联储进行 了一系列打击，而此次行动是这些对抗中的最新一幕。 这场全面抛售潮重新引发了关于美国总统能够且应该在多大程度上影响国家利率立场的辩论，而这一领 域长期以来被视为美联储的专属职权。这也再次引发了投资者是否应减少对美国资产和美元敞口的疑问 ——这一主题曾在去年四月特朗普宣布全面关税时主导全球市场。 新加坡Reed Capital Partners首席投资官Gerald Gan表示。该事件反映了一个"为了在中期选举前重获公众 支持，甚至不惜牺牲机构信誉"的政府。 吸引力下降 "任何引发对美联储独立性质疑的事态发展，都会增加美国货币政策的不确定性，"管理超6000亿美元资 产的Allspring Global Investments投资组合经理Gary Tan表示。"这可能会强化现有的美元多元化趋势，并 提升对黄金等传统 ...

新晋AI亿万富豪包括Scale AI联合创始人汪滔(Alexandr Wang)与郭如意(Lucy Guo)，他们创建的这家数 据标注公司在今年6月获得了Meta的143亿美元投资。AI编程创业公司Cursor的四位创始人迈克尔·特鲁 埃尔(Michael Truell)、苏阿莱赫·阿西夫(Sualeh Asif)、阿曼·桑格尔(Aman Sanger)与阿尔维德·伦纳马克 (Arvid Lunnemark)也在上个月公司融资估值达270亿美元时跻身亿万富豪行列。 凤凰网科技讯 北京时间12月30日，据《纽约时报》报道，AI热潮已经让英伟达CEO黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)和OpenAI CEO萨姆·奥特曼(Sam Altman)等知名亿万富翁变得更加富有。与此同时，它还造就了 一批来自小型创业公司的新年轻亿万富翁，至少在纸面上是如此。 这些年轻富翁可能会成为未来的硅谷权势人物，就像以往科技热潮造就的富有高管一样。例如，上世纪 90年代末互联网泡沫时期涌现的富豪们就曾投资或协助引领了随后的科技浪潮。 硅谷风险投资公司Sapphire Ventures的合伙人贾伊·达斯(Jai Das)将新晋亿万富豪比作 ...

美元指数在2025年下跌约9%，将创下八年来最差年度表现。驱动美元走弱的主要因素包括：美联储的 降息预期、与其他主要货币的利差收窄，以及对美国财政赤字和政治不确定性的担忧。国际清算银行数 据显示，10月美元的实际有效汇率指数为108.7，虽较1月创下的115.1的纪录高位有所下降，但仍处高 位，表明美元估值依然偏高。市场普遍预期，2026年美元将继续走弱，核心逻辑在于全球增长可能趋于 一致，美国的经济增长优势预计将收窄，而德国财政刺激、欧元区经济改善等因素可能降低美元的吸引 力。货币政策分化是另一大压力来源，市场预计美联储在新任主席上任后可能采取更偏鸽派的立场，并 继续降息，而欧洲央行等主要央行可能维持利率不变甚至存在加息可能。投资者警告，尽管长期趋势看 跌，但美元仍可能因人工智能热潮带来的股市资金流入等因素，在短期内出现反弹。任何对美国经济增 长的重大打击，都可能成为拖累美元的额外因素。 来源：滚动播报 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：鹏友来开会 12月16日，上证综指下跌1.11%，深证成指下跌1.51%，创业板指下跌2.1%，沪深300下跌1.2%，人们 的"牛市情绪"再次受到冲击。到底发生了什么？ 翻看各路分析人员的解释，大体包括：日本央行将于近日开会讨论加息，并且将于明年1月抛售ETF； 韩元兑美元汇率大跌，有关方面紧急维稳；泰国央行采取措施干预泰铢汇率；华尔街一大空头称人工智 能热潮将在2026年消退，科技公司将拖累美股下跌。还有机构说，四季度中国市场动能减弱，在明年初 重要会议开启之前，更多受全球风险偏好左右。 那么，这些信息能把中国股市打趴下吗？按说不能，因为中国经济基本面没有发生什么异变，恰恰相 反，1至11月，经济稳步向好趋势继续显现：社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，固定资产投资（不含农 户）扣除房地产开发投资后的项目投资增长0.8%，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%，规模以上高技 术制造业增加值同比增长9.2%，智能消费设备制造业增加值增长7.6%。当然，我们不讳言投资增长缓 慢、消费者物价指数增幅较低的情况，并且要进一步采取提振措施，但总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is seen as more dovish than anticipated, with implications for inflation and consumer spending in the upcoming year [2][3]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, but market adjustments resulted in an effective cut of 31 basis points [2]. - Majority of the committee members expect only one rate cut in the next year, indicating a short-term dovish stance but a hawkish outlook longer term [3]. Consumer Stimulus - A significant tax bill passed in the summer will lead to retroactive tax cuts, resulting in larger tax refunds for consumers, projected to increase from an average of $3,200 this year to $4,000 next year [4][5]. - This increase in tax refunds is expected to provide a boost to consumer spending in the first half of the year, alongside positive trends from the AI boom and stock market performance [5]. Inflation Outlook - Anticipated consumer spending surge may lead to inflation peaking between 3.5% and 4% by June next year, before potentially returning to the Fed's 2% target by year-end [8][10]. - Retailers may pass on tariff increases to consumers due to the influx of tax refunds, contributing to inflationary pressures [6][7]. Economic Disparities - The current economic environment is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where wealthier households are thriving while lower-income households continue to face inflationary pressures [11][12]. - The top 10% of earners hold 50% of the income, indicating significant income inequality that affects overall consumer confidence and spending behavior [12][13]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to rebalance their portfolios, particularly as many are heavily concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks, which may face volatility [15][16]. - A balanced portfolio is recommended as a prudent strategy heading into 2026, considering potential risks in speculative areas [16].

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, predict that the US dollar will resume its downward trend next year as the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness Predictions - The dollar experienced its largest decline since the early 1970s in the first half of this year due to market turmoil caused by President Trump's trade war, but has stabilized over the past six months [1]. - Strategists expect the dollar to weaken again by 2026, driven by the Fed's continued implementation of loose monetary policy while other major central banks maintain or gradually increase interest rates [1][6]. - A consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg predicts that a widely tracked dollar index will depreciate by approximately 3% by the end of 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The anticipated decline in the dollar is expected to have a chain reaction on the overall economy, leading to increased import costs, higher value of overseas profits for companies, and a boost in exports [6]. - The weakening dollar may be welcomed by the Trump administration, which has consistently complained about the US trade deficit [6]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and Currency Trends - The flow of funds into emerging markets for higher yields has led to the largest returns from carry trades since 2009, with JPMorgan and Bank of America optimistic about further appreciation of emerging market currencies [7]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that as economic data from multiple countries improves, market expectations for currencies like the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar are being revised upward [7]. Group 4: Diverging Economic Outlooks - Some contrarian investors believe the dollar may appreciate against certain major currencies, citing the strong performance of the US economy, particularly driven by the AI boom [7]. - Citigroup and Standard Chartered analysts suggest that the growth in the US economy will attract significant investment inflows, potentially boosting the dollar's value [7]. Group 5: Federal Reserve's Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve has raised its economic growth forecast for 2026, indicating a potentially better-than-expected economic outlook, despite announcing a 25 basis point rate cut and plans for another cut next year [8]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell alleviated market concerns about a shift towards tightening monetary policy, emphasizing the focus on the weak labor market and inflation above target levels [8].

Core Viewpoint - The era of easy profits for yield-seeking investors is gradually coming to an end as traditional safe assets are providing diminishing returns, prompting a shift towards riskier investments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - Conservative investors have enjoyed substantial returns in recent years, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields exceeding 5%, marking a departure from the near-zero interest rates of the past decade [1]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again, which will further reduce yields below post-pandemic highs, creating a challenging environment for yield-focused portfolios [1][2]. - The MSCI global index shows that global stock dividend yields are near their lowest levels since 2002, and investment-grade credit spreads are only slightly above multi-decade lows, indicating limited room for error if economic conditions worsen [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly relying on timing and independent judgment rather than central bank signals, leading to a preference for short-term bonds [2]. - Institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, are looking at high-yield bonds, emerging market debt, and securitized investments to enhance returns and diversify risk [2]. - Private credit has attracted significant capital as a diversification tool, with expectations that funds seeking yield will increase their allocation to private markets [2][3]. Group 3: Shifts in Asset Allocation - The pursuit of yield continues, with a notable shift towards high-volatility assets driven by the AI boom and a resurgence in risk appetite [3]. - Catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities are gaining institutional demand due to their low correlation with market risks, with new funds like the Victory Pioneer catastrophe bond fund attracting $1.6 billion in assets [3]. - The ability of equities to provide yield is diminishing, as rising stock prices, particularly in tech, are compressing global stock dividend yields, and companies are increasingly favoring stock buybacks over dividends [3][4]. Group 4: Tactical Opportunities - Despite a tightening global yield environment, there are exceptions such as rising expectations for further rate hikes in Australia due to persistent inflation [5]. - Analysts indicate that the declining U.S. Treasury yields and near-historical low credit spreads are pushing investors towards the risk curve for marginal returns [5].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 美联储预计将在本周实施今年第三次连续降息，但主席鲍威尔争取同事支持这一举措时面临的挑战，预 示着其继任者未来将遭遇严峻考验。 今年美联储的每次降息都伴随着反对票，预计在今年最后一次会议上将有三位政策制定者再次投出反对 票。 面对相互冲突的两大目标——通胀仍居高不下，就业市场却持续疲软——鲍威尔这位即便在困难时期也 擅长凝聚共识的美联储主席，如今发现这项任务几乎难以完成。 "如果没有分歧，我反而会更担心，"2014年至2024年担任克利夫兰联储主席的洛雷塔·梅斯特（Loretta Mester）表示，"我们看到的反对票，恰恰反映出经济可能朝着不同方向发展。" 鲍威尔的主席任期将于明年5月届满，他在利率制定委员会中享有深厚威望，即便如此，这一局面仍给 下任主席团结18位同事的能力蒙上阴影。 中性利率之争 美联储官员普遍认同，希望将利率下调至既不会对经济造成显著压力、也不会主动刺激经济的水平。但 他们无法就这一"中性利率"的具体数值达成共识，这也导致反对票数量不断增加。 "这就是问题的本质，"巴克莱资本首席美国经济学家、前达拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway plans to issue yen-denominated bonds, raising speculation about increasing stakes in Japan's five major trading companies, indicating a strong investment opportunity in Japan [1][5][6] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that Berkshire's bond issuance signals a locked-in investment opportunity in Japan, particularly in trading companies, as it holds significant cash reserves [4][7] - Since Warren Buffett disclosed holdings in Japan's five major trading companies in August 2020, their stock prices have more than doubled, reflecting strong market confidence [7][9] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, stock prices of Itochu, Mitsubishi, and Sumitomo trading companies rose over 2%, outperforming the Topix index, with Itochu showing particularly strong gains due to dividend increases and stock split plans [2][6][10] Group 3: Broader Market Implications - Berkshire's move is seen as a key indicator for the yen credit market, especially as overseas issuance of yen bonds has decreased to a four-year low amid rising Japanese interest rates [10][11] - The issuance is viewed as a test of investor sentiment and available funds in the yen credit market, with Berkshire's strong credit rating making it a prominent issuer [11][12]