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中东紧张局势打击风向偏好 新兴市场货币与股票齐跌
智通财经网· 2025-06-17 23:31
Group 1 - Emerging market currencies and stocks have declined due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with indices dropping over 0.4% before narrowing to a 0.1% decline at close [1] - The South African rand, Hungarian forint, and South Korean won were among the worst performers, each depreciating over 1% against the US dollar, while the Israeli shekel dropped as much as 0.8% before recovering [1] - The market is under pressure from risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions [1][3] Group 2 - Despite recent declines, fund managers believe that the strong performance of emerging markets relative to US assets will continue, as the risks from the conflict are not expected to be deep or prolonged [4] - Emerging markets are expected to outperform other markets in macroeconomic growth this year and next, with international investors recognizing the need to diversify their investments [7]
关税大棒失灵?美国铝业复兴梦碎 致命弱点浮出水面
智通财经网· 2025-05-09 08:00
智通财经APP获悉,美国总统特朗普对进口铝材全面加征关税的政策,虽成功改写了全球贸易格局并推 高了美国消费者成本,却未能实现其核心目标:重振本土铝业生产。 现实情况恰恰相反——由于生产成本持续攀升,特别是美国电价远超国际竞争对手,本土冶炼厂正接连 关停而非重启。 25%的铝关税对实体市场的影响尤为显著。虽然伦敦金属交易所提供基准铝价,但实际采购成本还需计 入区域交货溢价,而当前溢价主要反映的正是关税成本。 与此形成鲜明对比的是,摩根大通分析师指出,今年迄今为止,欧洲溢价同比降幅超30%,这种巨大价 差正是美国贸易政策直接导致的。 全球第二大铝业巨头挪威海德鲁(NHYDY.US)首席财务官Trond Olaf Christophersen表示,这些成本终将 由下游用户承担。 Christophersen表示:"这很可能最终会导致美国消费者的价格上涨。"他指出,关税是一种成本"转嫁"。 关税实施以来,海德鲁股价已暴跌约17%。 以生产车顶行李箱著称的海德鲁客户Thule Group已经感受到了关税的冲击。该公司表示,尽管其美国 销售产品多为本土制造,但由于钢铝原料价格飞涨,公司仍宣布提价约10%。 然而这些关税在 ...