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美联储降息预期引爆套息交易 新兴市场货币获国际资本大举加仓
智通财经网· 2025-08-11 00:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a renewed interest in carry trades among emerging market investors due to a weakening US dollar and declining volatility, creating an ideal environment for such strategies [1][3][4] - Fund managers from various institutions, including Neuberger Berman and Aberdeen Group, are increasing their positions in currencies from Brazil, South Africa, and Egypt, driven by high yields [1][4] - Emerging market currencies have shown resilience, with 18 out of 23 major currencies appreciating against the US dollar this year, and local bond indices returning over 12% [3] Group 2 - The preference for emerging markets is reflected in the volatility indicators, with the expected volatility difference between emerging market currencies and G10 currencies at a 12-year high, suggesting a more stable market environment for developing economies [3] - Some emerging market central banks are maintaining hawkish stances due to inflation and tariff concerns, further enhancing the attractiveness of carry trades [3] - The average carry rate for Asian currencies is negative, while Latin American currencies show a positive carry rate of 3.7%, indicating a more favorable environment for carry trades in Latin America [7] Group 3 - The Bloomberg cumulative forex carry trade index for eight emerging market currencies has returned over 10% this year, with investors locking in profits amid concerns over US economic policies [7] - Institutions like Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas note that the decline in global market volatility has negatively impacted low-yield Asian currencies, while high-yield Latin American currencies benefit from increased risk appetite [7] - Neuberger Berman's outlook suggests that as long as there is confidence that the US dollar will not experience a significant rebound, carry trades remain highly attractive [7]