尽管美债市场反复出现衰退恐慌，但经济衰退始终没有成为现实。但过去几年历史表明，风险资产市场的判断往往是正确的。这场由股票和企业 债的乐观情绪，与美债市场的谨慎态度形成的博弈，正在成为华尔街关注的焦点。 尽管股市高歌猛进，但美债市场对经济前景的担忧并未消散，十年期美债收益率仍低于就业报告发布前的水平。根据摩根大通的数据，当前股票 和企业债市场所反映的经济衰退概率仅为个位数，远低于美国国债市场的定价。后者近期甚至押注美联储将在未来数月降息多达三次，显示出对 经济前景的深切担忧。 一周前，一份疫情以来最差的就业报告曾让市场风声鹤唳，投资者纷纷押注经济将急剧放缓。但仅仅一周后，股票和企业债市场的表现却仿佛这 份报告从未发生过，交易员们似乎已将宏观经济的忧虑抛之脑后，再次大举押注风险资产。 本周，高风险资产交易全面反弹，延续了此前无视众多经济放缓信号的惊人涨势。纳斯达克100指数录得一个多月来最大单周涨幅，比特币止住短 期颓势，高收益企业债利差连续五天收窄，完全抹去了就业数据公布后的悲观情绪。强劲的企业盈利和市场对人工智能再度燃起的热情，是这 股"风险开启"（risk-on）情绪的最新驱动力。 不同市场的迥异叙事 上周 ...

Group 1 - The recent U.S. economic data indicates that tariff policies are beginning to show signs of inflation in prices, marking the first time such signals have been captured in official data [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed an annual increase from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June, leading to a brief sell-off in the bond market [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June reported zero growth, stabilizing the market after the CPI report [1][2] Group 2 - Core consumer prices, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June, the largest monthly increase since 2022, with notable increases in home goods and appliances [2] - PIMCO suggests that the CPI data may support the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, indicating room for potential rate cuts in September and beyond [2] - The PCE price index is expected to reach 2.8% in June and potentially 3% in July, which could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut in September [3] Group 3 - Current bond market sentiment views the inflation caused by tariffs as a "temporary adjustment" that will be absorbed in a few months, with prices expected to stabilize near the Fed's target [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 4.45%, which is considered attractive for investors [3][4] - Despite recent tariff-related news, the U.S. Treasury market has remained stable, with the 10-year yield fluctuating within a narrow range of 15 basis points [3]