核心观点 春节假期间，海外市场主要交易的是中东地缘风险主导的避险交易与FOMC货币政策不确定性。在此背景下，主要资产价格表现如下：全球主要股指多数 上涨，韩股、法股、英股涨幅领先；除美债利率外，全球主要10年期国债收益率多数下行；全球主要大宗商品多数上涨；主要货币中日元、英镑跌幅较 大。 文：华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人：李星宇（18810112501） 报告摘要 春节假期海外要闻 主要大类资产表现 1、股市：全球主要股指多数上涨，韩股、法股、英股涨幅领先。2月16日~20日，韩国综合指数、法国CAC40、富时100、欧洲斯托克600指数、纳斯达 克、德国DAX、标普500、MSCI新兴市场指数和道琼斯分别上涨5.5%、2.5%、2.3%、2.1%、1.5%、1.4%、1.1%、1.0%、 0.8%和0.3%；恒生指数和日经 225分别下跌0.6%和0.2%。 2、债券：除美债利率外，全球主要10年期国债收益率多数下行。2月16日~20日，10年期日债、法债、英债和意债收益率分别下行6.1bps、3.8bps、2.7bps 和2.3bps；10年期美债收益率上行4 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经圣保罗2月21日电（记者杨家和）美国最高法院20日裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法后，巴西主要股指Ibovespa指数当日强势上涨，收盘创 历史新高，同时巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率显著走强。 截至20日收盘，Ibovespa指数上涨1.06%至190534.42点，首次突破190000点大关。该指数当日最高曾达到190726.78点，交易量达到约361.6亿雷亚尔。 "从边际效应来看，关税的取消强化了全球外汇投资组合的重新配置，这有利于巴西雷亚尔和股市，但主要后果应该是汇率波动加剧，因为美国政府下一 步的举措存在不确定性。即便如此，美元贬值的全球趋势依然存在。"国际货币基金组织高级经济学家安德烈·瓦莱里奥表示。 市场预测，随着外资流入预期增强和巴西国内宏观经济基本面稳健，巴西金融市场短期内维持积极走势的动力较为充足。 编辑：王姝睿 受狂欢节假期影响，本周交易时间减少，但本周股指累计上涨2.18%。 市场分析认为，美国最高法院20日裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法，这一判决对全球贸易环境产生广泛影响，提振了投资者对风险资产的信心，成为 推动巴西股市上涨的主要因素之一。 在汇市方面，雷亚尔兑美元 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an overweight position in equities while maintaining neutral allocations in bonds, commodities, and cash, with a low allocation to credit [2] Core Insights - Despite high market valuations, macro fundamentals are expected to support the current levels, and high valuations alone do not constitute a bearish signal [3] - Economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to be diversified, driven by fiscal policy, regulatory easing, and AI penetration, while political and geopolitical risks should be monitored [4] - The importance of diversification in asset allocation is emphasized, particularly in the late economic cycle, with a recommendation for alternative strategies and diverse investment styles [5][6] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The macro outlook for 2026 is positive, with strong performance expected in the first half, but potential slowdown in the second half. Growth will be more diversified, supported by fiscal policy and AI integration [4] Market Valuation - Current valuations are high, with the S&P Shiller PE ratio at its highest level since the tech bubble, but macro factors support these valuations, indicating that high valuations alone do not signal a market downturn [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for early 2026 favors risk assets, particularly equities, while maintaining neutral positions in bonds and commodities. Credit is underweighted due to low credit spreads [2] - The report highlights the need for selective and cautious approaches in spread trading and credit investments, recommending an overweight in equities to navigate the current economic environment [7] Sector and Regional Trends - Different regions are driven by various factors, with the U.S. led by technology, while value stocks are recovering in Europe. The report notes a balanced dynamic across sectors, creating opportunities for alpha generation [8] Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market is expected to see a divergence in returns, with gold projected to rise to $4,900 per ounce by year-end, while Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to an average of $56 per barrel [18]

Group 1 - The core message from Goldman Sachs is that while the dominance of the US dollar is weakening, it is not collapsing yet, with a projected slow decline influenced by global growth and balanced asset returns [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the dollar will experience a "slow downward process," driven by strong global growth, despite the dollar being overvalued by approximately 15% according to their GSDEER model [1][2] - The report highlights that the most significant risks to the dollar's value may arise from structural changes in capital markets rather than traditional macroeconomic data [1][2] Group 2 - The outlook for the euro is that it is nearing "fair value" against the dollar, with further appreciation likely driven by the dollar's weakness rather than explosive growth in the Eurozone [3] - The British pound is identified as a "laggard" among G10 currencies, facing structural overvaluation and lacking fundamental support due to pressures from fiscal tightening and a weak domestic economic outlook [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of England will implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market expects, which will negatively impact the pound's performance compared to its European counterparts [3] Group 3 - In Asia, Goldman Sachs sees opportunities in low-yield currencies closely tied to the technology supply chain, such as the South Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, which are expected to outperform higher-yield currencies like the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso [5] - The South Korean won is particularly favored due to expected inflows from the inclusion in the FTSE World Government Bond Index and the resumption of foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service [5] - For emerging markets, Goldman Sachs recommends focusing on currencies with improving fundamentals and attractive valuations, such as the Brazilian real and Colombian peso, which offer significant carry trade potential despite political uncertainties [6]

Core Viewpoint - The hardline measures taken by U.S. President Donald Trump in Venezuela and Argentina coincide with a critical election year in Latin America, further pushing the region towards right-wing politics, leading investors to anticipate market reforms and increased foreign capital inflow [1][8]. Political Shift - Investors' willingness to increase their positions reflects a consensus that the development cycle in Latin America exhibits interlinked dynamics, where political shifts tend to reinforce each other rather than occur in isolation [2][10]. - Recent elections in Ecuador, Argentina, and Chile have seen right-wing parties winning, which has been a significant support for the rise in Latin American stock, currency, and bond markets over the past year [2][10]. - Even in countries like Brazil and Mexico, led by leftist leaders, the adherence to orthodox monetary policies and fiscal discipline has become a common trend, further boosting market sentiment [2][10]. Upcoming Elections - Investors are closely monitoring the dense election schedule in 2026, including elections in Colombia and Peru, as well as the year-end elections in Brazil [4][12]. - The political pressure from upcoming elections is expected to tilt political stances towards the right, which could present an upside risk for bondholders [4][12]. - The situation in Venezuela may impact neighboring countries like Peru, Panama, and Cuba through changes in immigration and trade patterns [4][12]. Market Reactions - The market's reaction to Trump's actions in Venezuela has been limited, with many voices welcoming the measures rather than uniting against U.S. intervention [5][14]. - The overall positive sentiment towards Latin American assets is contingent on the U.S. government's approach, as excessive pressure could lead to backlash based on sovereignty concerns [7][15]. Beneficiaries - Resource extraction companies are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries as various Latin American governments seek to align with U.S. strategic priorities for investment [6][15]. - BCA Research predicts that assets related to natural resources and the banking sector are expected to outperform the market [6][15].

Group 1 - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year, reflecting changes in global investor attitudes towards dollar assets and the impact of US monetary policy [1][5][7] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the dollar's share in global reserves has declined, dropping from 57.79% to 56.32% by the second quarter of 2025, marking a 30-year low [1][2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) and other global central banks are shifting towards independent monetary policies, leading to a diversified international monetary system [2][35] Group 2 - The euro has rebounded strongly, increasing by 13.5% over the year, driven by the weakening dollar and capital inflows [12][13] - The British pound has shown a "low open, high rise" trend, reaching a peak of 1.3743 against the dollar in July, supported by a stable UK economy and hawkish Bank of England policies [16][17] - The Japanese yen has experienced significant volatility, with a slight increase of 0.5% year-to-date, but facing depreciation pressures due to domestic political changes and fiscal risks [20][22][24] Group 3 - Resource currencies like the Australian dollar and Brazilian real have benefited from the weaker dollar, as it makes commodities cheaper for other currencies, boosting demand and export revenues [29][30] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has risen over 6%, marking its best annual performance since 2017, with the Brazilian real gaining over 10% [31] - The weakening dollar has provided a significant boost to emerging market equities, while US stocks have remained strong, driven by AI themes despite concerns over US policies [33][34] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve has implemented three rate cuts in 2025, totaling 75 basis points, as it seeks to balance inflation control with employment stability [35][36] - The Bank of Japan has raised rates twice in 2025, marking a cautious approach amidst ongoing economic challenges, while the ECB has paused its rate cuts after a series of reductions earlier in the year [38][42] - The divergence in monetary policy paths among major central banks is expected to continue, with the Fed likely to cut rates once more in 2026, while the ECB may consider rate hikes depending on economic conditions [45][49]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the Japanese yen is increasingly bearish, with major institutions predicting a significant depreciation against the US dollar by the end of 2026, driven by high interest rate differentials and negative real interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Major institutions like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas forecast that the yen will fall below 160 against the dollar by the end of 2026, with some predictions as low as 164 [1][3]. - The yen has only seen a marginal increase of less than 1% against the dollar this year, failing to recover from a four-year decline, and currently hovers around 156, close to its early year low of 158.87 [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The fundamental weakness of the yen is a primary concern, with predictions that this situation will not improve significantly in the near future [3][5]. - The cyclical forces are expected to turn increasingly unfavorable for the yen, as the market prices in higher interest rates in other regions, limiting the impact of the Bank of Japan's tightening policies [3][5]. Group 3: Capital Outflow - Domestic capital outflow is a significant factor pressuring the yen, with retail investors maintaining high levels of overseas stock investments, around 9.4 trillion yen (600 billion) [4]. - Japanese companies are also increasingly investing abroad, with direct investment levels remaining stable and M&A activity reaching new highs, further exacerbating the yen's depreciation [4]. Group 4: Intervention Risks - The risk of official intervention has resurfaced as the yen approaches levels that previously triggered government action, but market experts believe that mere intervention may not reverse the structural depreciation trend [6]. - Despite warnings from officials about excessive speculation, the market remains volatile, and simple smoothing operations may not be effective in changing the yen's downward trajectory [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has not led to a sustained appreciation of the yen, with increasing bearish sentiment towards the currency and a consensus that its structural weakness is unlikely to be reversed quickly [1][5]. Exchange Rate Predictions - Analysts from JPMorgan and BNP Paribas predict that the yen may depreciate to around 160 yen per dollar by the end of 2026 due to the persistent disparity in interest rates between the US and Japan, negative real interest rates in Japan, and ongoing capital outflows [1][3]. - JPMorgan's chief forex strategist, Junya Tanaka, has provided a pessimistic forecast of 164 yen per dollar for the end of 2026, citing weak fundamentals for the yen [2][6]. - Fukuoka Financial Group's chief strategist, Tetsu Sasaki, expects the yen to weaken further to 165 yen per dollar by the end of 2026, attributing this to the Bank of Japan's lack of aggressive rate hikes [4][9]. Factors Influencing Yen Weakness - The ongoing capital outflow from Japan, with retail investors favoring overseas assets, is a significant factor pressuring the yen. The net purchases of overseas stocks by Japanese retail investors have remained near a ten-year high of 9.4 trillion yen (approximately 60 billion dollars) [3][8]. - The return of carry trade strategies, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, is another obstacle to yen appreciation [2][7]. Market Sentiment and Government Intervention - The market sentiment remains tense, with speculation about potential intervention by the Japanese government to stabilize the yen as it approaches levels that previously triggered official market intervention [10]. - Analysts express skepticism that government intervention alone can reverse the yen's downward trend, emphasizing the need for more substantial fiscal policy changes [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has not sustained a boost for the yen, leading to increasing bearish sentiment towards the currency and reinforcing the view that the yen's structural weakness will not be resolved quickly [1][5]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Strategists from institutions like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas predict that the yen will depreciate to 160 or lower against the dollar by the end of 2026, influenced by the large US-Japan interest rate differential, negative real interest rates, and ongoing capital outflows [1][5]. - JPMorgan's chief Japan FX strategist, Junya Tanase, forecasts a more pessimistic outlook, predicting the yen will reach 164 by the end of 2026, citing cyclical factors that may further pressure the yen [3][8]. - BNP Paribas' strategist, Parisha Saimbi, anticipates that the dollar will rise to 160 against the yen by the end of 2026, supported by strong arbitrage demand and a cautious stance from the Bank of Japan [4][9]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The yen has only appreciated less than 1% against the dollar this year, despite expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][5]. - The yen is currently fluctuating around 156, close to its yearly low of 158.87, indicating ongoing weakness [1]. - Japanese household investments in overseas assets remain high, with net purchases of foreign stocks hovering around 9.4 trillion yen (600 million USD), which is a ten-year high, contributing to downward pressure on the yen [4][9]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a notable trend of Japanese companies increasing their overseas direct investments, with this year's M&A activity reaching a multi-year high, which may be a persistent driver of capital outflows [7][11]. - The popularity of borrowing low-interest yen to invest in higher-yield currencies like the Brazilian real and Turkish lira is creating additional resistance to any potential rebound of the yen [3][8].

Core Insights - Emerging market currencies are performing strongly due to increased volatility and a weakening dollar, prompting investors to reassess their exposure to the dollar and consider the economic value of developing countries [2][5] - The trend of emerging market currencies is expected to continue into 2026, with significant interest from hedge funds and banks benefiting from foreign exchange trading [1][6] Group 1: Emerging Market Currency Performance - The Hungarian Forint's trading volume has more than doubled since January, with a 20% increase in its exchange rate against the dollar, marking its best performance in 25 years [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index reached a historical high in July, with an expected annual increase of over 6%, the best since 2017 [1] - The Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso are among the best-performing emerging market currencies, supported by robust central banks and high interest rates, with Brazil's rate at 15%, the highest in nearly 20 years [12] Group 2: Impact of Dollar Weakness - The dollar's weakening is part of a broader cycle shift, ending a 14-year bear market for emerging market currencies, as investors move away from reliance on U.S. assets [2][5] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by another two 25 basis points in the coming year, which is crucial for many emerging market currencies and is driving capital inflows [9][12] - The high volatility in the foreign exchange market has created profitable opportunities for hedge funds, with EDL Capital reporting a 28% increase in value this year [5][6] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Major banks have generated nearly $40 billion in revenue from emerging market foreign exchange trading in the first nine months, more than double the revenue from trading ten major currencies [6] - Over half of surveyed top forex traders and hedge fund managers indicated increasing interest in emerging market currencies as the dollar's dominance wanes [9] - The International Monetary Fund has warned of potential risks in the currency market, highlighting that nearly half of global forex trading is dominated by a small number of large banks [5]