Mexican financial assets are closing out one of their strongest years in decades, stunning global investors and decisively outperforming Wall Street benchmarks. A synchronized rally in equities and the Mexican peso has erased early fears that renewed U.S. protectionist rhetoric under President Donald Trump would derail Mexico's markets. Instead, 2025 has turned into a historic year for Mexican assets.Mexico's Market Rally Leaves Wall Street In The DustThe iShares Mexico ETF (NYSE:EWW) surged more than 50% y ...

新华财经墨西哥城12月22日电 墨西哥央行12月18日宣布，将基准利率下调25个基点至7%，为2022年中 以来最低水平，完成2025年最后一次货币政策调整。 尽管短期通胀压力有所抬头，央行仍认为通胀有望在2026年第三季度回归3%的目标区间。市场普遍认 为，此次降息不仅为年内政策"收官之举"，也标志着货币政策重心正从持续宽松，转向对2026年通胀、 财政与外部环境的更为审慎权衡。 年内第八次降息：通胀可控但风险抬头 墨西哥央行管理委员会在声明中表示，理事会决定将隔夜银行间拆借利率目标下调25个基点至7.00%。 央行指出，作出这一决定主要基于汇率表现、经济活动持续疲弱以及全球贸易政策变化可能带来的影 响。 这是墨西哥央行2025年第八次降息，也是继此前连续四次各降50个基点之后，连续第四次降息幅度缩小 至25个基点。利率水平由此降至2022年4月以来的最低点。 不过，央行在降息的同时，也上调了短期通胀预期。根据墨西哥国家地理统计局数据，11月墨西哥总体 通胀率升至3.8%，高于10月的3.57%；核心通胀率则从4.28%升至4.43%，主要受非食品商品和服务价格 上涨推动。 央行在声明中承认，通胀回落节奏慢 ...

2025年市场波动中，新兴市场货币表现强劲，新兴市场外汇交易兴趣大增也成为亮点。而2026年美元疲 软趋势预计将持续，这将有利于新兴市场。对冲基金和银行外汇交易部门受益最大。 例如，作为长期以来在新兴市场中处于边缘地位的货币，匈牙利福林的交易量自美国总统特朗普于今年 1月上任以来已增长了一倍多。自他宣布大规模的"解放日"进口关税政策以来，交易者的兴趣更是与日 俱增。交易员、策略师和对冲基金表示，这些交易量的增加并非偶然现象;他们正在参与规模高达每天1 万亿美元的全球外汇市场交易。 今年，福林兑美元汇率已上涨约20%，创下近25年来最佳表现，成为2025年新兴货币表现最佳的货币之 一。从更广泛的层面来看，今年新兴市场货币的表现也相当不错：MSCI新兴市场货币指数在7月创下历 史新高，并有望实现自2017年以来的最佳年度表现，涨幅超过6%。接受机构调查的交易员、基金经理 和分析师大多预计这一趋势明年也将持续下去。 新兴市场货币表现强劲得益于美元波动性增强且持续走弱，这促使投资者重新审视对美元的投资敞口， 并对长期以来美元的强势和全球货币地位提出质疑。与此同时，他们正在押注一些发展中国家(从南非 到匈牙利)的经济价 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market carry trades are expected to remain effective through 2026, driven by low borrowing costs from central banks in developed economies and sustained interest rate differentials between developed and emerging markets [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Market Carry Trades - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a year-to-date return of 16.71%, the highest since 2009, when it reached 19.89% [3]. - In the previous five years, four years recorded negative returns, with rates of -2.84%, -5.02%, -0.52%, and -3.17% for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024 respectively [3]. - High benchmark interest rates in countries like Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa have resulted in three-month implied yields of 13.4%, 7.5%, and 6.6%, significantly outperforming developed economies [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is seen as a key factor for the continued strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy [4]. - Investment firms like Invesco and Goldman Sachs recommend increasing short positions on the U.S. dollar against currencies such as the Brazilian real and South African rand [4]. - Neuberger Berman highlights that reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market and a weak dollar create favorable conditions for emerging market carry trades [5][6]. Group 3: Volatility Concerns - There is ongoing debate about whether low foreign exchange volatility can be maintained, as adverse currency movements could quickly erase gains [7]. - Current indicators from JPMorgan show emerging market currency volatility is near a five-year low, but concerns remain about potential increases due to factors like U.S. midterm elections and Federal Reserve policy divergences [7]. - Vanguard Group believes that market disruptions from events like Trump's tariff policies are diminishing, suggesting a stable environment for emerging market currencies in 2026 [7].

智通财经APP获悉，大型投资者表示，在经历了这一热门策略的辉煌一年后，新兴市场的利差交易在2026年仍有继续推进的空间。外汇市场波动性减弱和美 元疲软为该交易提供了肥沃的土壤。 在该交易中，投资者借入低收益货币，买入高收益货币。数据显示，一个衡量该策略的指标今年回报率约17%，为2009年以来的最大涨幅。 从先锋集团到景顺，再到高盛集团和美国银行，一系列资产管理公司和银行预计明年发达市场和新兴市场的利率差距将持续存在，美联储和大多数其他富裕 国家央行预计将维持较低的借贷成本。理论上，这种环境也应继续给美元带来压力，美元在2025年已经下跌了7%以上。 纽伯格伯曼新兴市场债务联席主管戈尔基·乌尔基耶塔表示："套利交易仍有价值，尤其是在巴西、哥伦比亚以及部分非洲市场等高收益国家。"不过，继今 年的表现之后，"机会正变得更具选择性。" 美国经济的走势是决定这种表现能否持续的关键因素。理想情况下，投资者指望经济增长疲软，这将鼓励美联储继续放松货币政策，从而削弱美元对其他货 币的吸引力。而彻底的衰退可能会引发避险情绪，从而打破这种平衡；如果经济比预期更火热，则会带来加息的威胁。 景顺新兴市场债务联席主管维姆·范登霍克表 ...

（原标题：政策变革预期支撑智利比索走强） 彭博社12月5日报道，德意志银行报告指出，2025年拉美货币因高实际利率和有利 外部环境表现强劲，巴西、墨西哥、智利、哥伦比亚和秘鲁货币均实现两位数回报。 但2026年趋势可能逆转，焦点将从国际环境转向各国财政、外部平衡及政治基本面。 巴西和哥伦比亚因宏观经济失衡突出而面临最高风险，其货币保护空间将受财政恶化 或选举不确定性的侵蚀。巴西十月大选的高不确定性可能引发财政支出增加和波动； 哥伦比亚则因通胀预期脱锚及财政恶化，央行可能开启加息周期。智利比索预计将因 潜在政策调整（降低企业税、放松管制和整顿财政）而逐步升值；秘鲁受货币高估值 限制，升值空间有限；墨西哥比索则因稳固的美国市场准入继续保持强势。报告预计 2026年底汇率目标为：巴西雷亚尔5.2、哥伦比亚比索4000、智利比索870、秘鲁新索尔 3.30、墨西哥比索18。 ...

在当前低波动环境下，外汇市场有哪些主要交易策略？ 在当前低波动环境下，外汇市场主要采用套息策略，即卖出低息货币、买入高 息货币以享受利差。今年（2025 年）表现最好的货币是拉美货币，如巴西雷 亚尔和墨西哥比索。巴西央行基准利率为 15%，使得投资者愿意做多其货币， 从而获得超过 30%的收益。墨西哥比索由于接近 10%的利率，也表现强劲。 此外，欧系货币如瑞士法郎和欧元也相对强势，因为欧洲投资者更多地对冲美 元汇率风险。而亚洲货币如中日韩、印尼、印度和菲律宾则表现较弱，因为这 2026 年外汇市场展望：宽松交易或阶段性回归 20251203 摘要 2025 年外汇市场先扬后抑，下半年波动性降低，主要受关税协调和美 联储降息预期充分兑现影响，导致美元反弹，市场进入低波动状态。 低波动环境下，套息交易盛行，拉美货币如巴西雷亚尔和墨西哥比索表 现突出，受益于高利率；而亚洲货币因收益偏低，资本外流导致走弱。 2026 年外汇市场波动率的关键因素包括美国政策预期变化、就业数据 恶化、PMI 指数衰退迹象以及美联储新主席的政策立场，这些将影响降 息预期。 美联储面临就业恶化和通胀反弹的权衡，可能暂缓 12 月降息，但若 ...

Core Viewpoint - A legal challenge against the Trump administration's key tariff powers is leading to market expectations of a significant, albeit possibly temporary, reversal of trade barriers [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Challenge and Market Reaction - The market's expectation of the Trump administration winning the IEEPA tariff case has significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from approximately 40% to 27% following initial court comments perceived as unfavorable [2]. - The outcome of this legal challenge is a key variable influencing current market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Potential Market Impact - If the court ultimately overturns the tariffs imposed under IEEPA, it could trigger a trading surge, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations, an increase in stock prices (especially small-cap stocks), and a strengthening of certain emerging market currencies like the Mexican peso and Brazilian real [1][4]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to drop from 12.5% to around 9% if IEEPA tariffs are overturned, which would benefit countries heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. [4][6]. Group 3: Beneficiaries and Losers - The primary beneficiaries of a potential IEEPA overturn would be countries with high trade dependency on the U.S., such as Vietnam and Mexico, while the EU and the UK would benefit the least [6]. - Other countries like India, which has not reached a trade agreement with the U.S., could see significant tariff reductions [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Market performance on the day of the hearing indicated a favorable sentiment towards small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index outperforming the S&P 500 [8]. - The foreign exchange market saw the Mexican peso and Brazilian real rise, aligning with the analysis of potential winners [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the relationship between labor productivity, the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and exchange rates, using real GDP per capita as a measure of labor productivity to assess currency valuation and future exchange rate trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Real Effective Exchange Rates - The Balassa-Samuelson effect indicates that "lagging" economies experience a continuous appreciation of their real effective exchange rates as they catch up to "developed" economies [1][3]. - From 2005 to 2015, the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese yuan appreciated, supporting the notion of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, with predictions of further appreciation in 2025 and 2026 based on OECD forecasts [1][4]. - A comparison of 15 economies' labor productivity data for 2024 reveals that the Indonesian rupiah, Swiss franc, and South African rand are overvalued by over 20%, while the Korean won, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar are undervalued by over 20% [6][9]. Group 2: Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The analysis predicts that in the next year, the US dollar will appreciate slightly against the euro and pound, weaken against the yuan initially, and then strengthen, while it will weaken against the yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Korean won [2][10]. - The euro and pound are expected to weaken moderately against the yuan, while the yen, Korean won, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar may rebound against the yuan after short-term pressure [2][23]. - The analysis suggests that the yuan is slightly overvalued by 3.45% relative to labor productivity, indicating that the appreciation of the yuan in 2025 and 2026 may be limited [6][9]. Group 3: Labor Productivity and Currency Valuation - The article emphasizes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect provides a theoretical framework linking labor productivity to real exchange rates, which is crucial for medium to long-term exchange rate assessments [4][10]. - The analysis of labor productivity and actual effective exchange rates shows that the yuan's valuation is close to equilibrium, with slight overvaluation, while other currencies like the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen show significant undervaluation [6][9]. - The relationship between labor productivity and bilateral exchange rates indicates that the yuan may face appreciation pressures in the coming years, particularly against currencies like the euro and pound [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Citigroup, have raised concerns about the increasing risk of a "re-acceleration" of the U.S. economy, driven by resilient labor markets, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs noted that the U.S. economy shows strong performance across multiple key indicators, with a significant rise in the U.S. macroeconomic surprise index and encouraging initial jobless claims data [2] - The global investment research department of Goldman Sachs projects a healthy GDP growth rate of 2.6% for the third quarter [2] - UBS defines economic acceleration as an increase of over 10 points in the ISM manufacturing index within 12 months [3] Group 2: Factors Driving Economic Acceleration - Key factors contributing to the risk of economic re-acceleration include: - Loose financial conditions characterized by strong performance of risk assets, expectations of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a weaker dollar [2] - Anticipated positive fiscal policy impulses in the first half of next year, alongside continued capital expenditure in the AI sector [2] - A solid consumer base in the U.S. and the impact of deregulation [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment banks recommend various strategies to hedge against the potential re-acceleration of the U.S. economy: - Consideration of U.S. small-cap stocks, Latin American currency carry trades, steepening yield curves, and commodities [1][2] - UBS highlights that small-cap stocks typically outperform large-cap stocks during economic expansion phases, with median outperformance of 5.4% after mid-cycle slowdowns and 20% after recessions [10][26] - UBS and Citigroup recommend Latin American currency carry trades, particularly emphasizing the Mexican peso for its dual benefits of carry opportunities and potential gains from stronger U.S. growth [15][17] Group 4: Commodity Outlook - Citigroup suggests buying copper options, citing macroeconomic factors and fundamentals that support rising copper prices [28] - UBS recommends oil as a hedging tool, predicting that a 10% increase in energy consumption due to U.S. re-acceleration could raise global oil demand by 2-3%, leading to a quicker market balance [29] Group 5: Yield Curve Strategies - Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup advocate for strategies to steepen the yield curve as a hedge against the risk of U.S. economic re-acceleration [20][21] - Goldman Sachs suggests going long on the steepening of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curve, while Citigroup believes that even with economic re-acceleration, front-end rates are unlikely to rise significantly due to overly dovish market pricing [20][21]