Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of the Federal Reserve from a hawkish to a dovish approach, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact the foreign exchange market and create opportunities for non-USD currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a high interest rate environment aimed at controlling inflation to signaling potential interest rate cuts, with futures markets indicating nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and possibly two 25 basis point cuts within the year [2][5]. - The shift from hawkish to dovish policy is expected to weaken the dollar's high-interest rate advantage, leading to downward pressure on its value [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Non-USD Currencies - Major non-USD currencies such as the Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen are gaining momentum against the dollar as the latter's appeal diminishes [3][4]. - Emerging market currencies are experiencing relief as financing pressures ease alongside the weakening dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in their exchange rates [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Strategy 1 involves trend-following by focusing on long positions in major non-USD currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with specific technical levels identified for entry and exit [5][6]. - Strategy 2 suggests a carry trade approach, where traders go long on high-yield currencies (e.g., Mexican Peso, New Zealand Dollar) while shorting currencies expected to face rate cuts [7]. - Strategy 3 emphasizes volatility trading around key economic data releases and Federal Reserve announcements, which are likely to cause significant price movements [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - The article highlights that a weak dollar does not guarantee a linear decline, as market corrections and geopolitical events may lead to temporary rebounds [11]. - It stresses the importance of independent assessments of currency strength based on central bank policies and economic fundamentals, along with strict risk management practices [11].

在美联储降息预期和美元走弱推动下，全球套息交易强势回归，墨西哥比索成为这轮资金流动的最大赢家，意外成为特朗普贸易 政策的最大受益者。 过去三个月，比索兑美元升值4%，超越其他主要货币成为表现最佳的新兴市场资产。作为贸易战的早期受害者之一，该货币曾 在今年2月美国宣布对墨西哥征收25%关税后暴跌至21比索兑1美元的低点。如今比索已反弹至18.5左右，不仅完全抹去特朗普当 选以来的跌幅，更成为套利交易复苏的核心受益者。 这一转变得益于墨西哥在美国贸易关系谈判中的相对成功表现。与其他国家不同，墨西哥通过USMCA协议获得了大部分商品免 征关税的待遇，并在7月31日获得特朗普"对等关税"政策90天延期。三菱UFJ银行全球市场研究主管Derek Halpenny表示："墨西哥 被认为在与美国的关系谈判中处理得比其他国家更好。" 与此同时，当前套利交易环境为墨西哥比索等高收益货币提供了强劲推动力。据彭博数据，追踪八种新兴市场货币表现的累计外 汇套息交易指数今年已上涨超过10%，专门投资发展中国家债券的全球基金在过去4个月每周都有资金流入。 三大因素推动套利交易复苏 第三个推动因素是市场波动率的显著下降。芝商所集团美元-比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has weakened, allowing emerging market currencies to recover some of their losses, with the Mexican peso reaching its highest point against the dollar during the trading session [1] Group 1 - The Mexican peso has appreciated against the US dollar, indicating a positive movement for the currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican peso has fallen to an intraday low, hovering around 18.70 pesos per dollar, following Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico [1] Group 1 - The Mexican peso's depreciation indicates market reaction to geopolitical tensions and potential trade policy changes [1] - The specific exchange rate of 1 dollar to 18.70 pesos reflects significant currency volatility [1] - Trump's tariff threat represents a potential shift in U.S.-Mexico trade relations, impacting investor sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The core narrative of the current foreign exchange market has shifted from trade war concerns to fundamental macroeconomic drivers, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center [1] - Market participants are closely examining the upcoming June FOMC meeting minutes to gauge the internal consensus on dovishness within the Federal Reserve [1][2] - If the minutes confirm a deeper dovish inclination, it would strengthen expectations for rate cuts in the summer, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar [2] Group 2 - The influence of tariff discussions from the Trump administration appears to be diminishing in the current foreign exchange market, with market participants interpreting these threats as negotiation tactics rather than a significant policy shift [2] - Tariffs may create asymmetric impacts in specific regions or asset classes, as seen with the recent surge in copper prices attributed to tariff expectations [2] - The EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a state of stagnation around 1.17, influenced by residual interest rate premiums and ongoing tariff uncertainties in the Eurozone [3] Group 3 - The foreign exchange market is characterized by a search for clarity, which is expected to come from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and upcoming CPI data [3] - The Japanese yen is perceived as vulnerable due to geopolitical and targeted tariff risks, while the Mexican peso may benefit indirectly from capital reallocation or safe-haven flows [4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of tariffs is seen as a negative signal for emerging market arbitrage trades, particularly affecting currencies in Colombia, Brazil, and Chile, which have all depreciated by over 1.2% [1] Group 1 - Mark McCormick, the head of foreign exchange strategy at TD Securities, indicates that the tariff announcement is not favorable for overbought emerging market arbitrage trades [1] - Currencies in Colombia, Brazil, and Chile have experienced a decline of more than 1.2% following the tariff news [1] Group 2 - Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies, suggests that the current situation remains uncertain and that Trump's letters may be aimed at facilitating a new round of negotiations [1] - Bechtel anticipates further announcements related to tariffs in the coming weeks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican peso has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, reaching its highest level in over ten months, but there are growing concerns about a potential moderate depreciation in the coming year due to upcoming U.S. tariff decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Current Performance and Predictions - The Mexican peso has appreciated by 13.2% in the first half of 2025, making it one of the strongest currencies in Latin America, with the exchange rate rising from over 20 to approximately 18.7 against the U.S. dollar [2]. - A median forecast from 22 foreign exchange experts indicates that the peso may depreciate by 5.5% over the next 12 months, with an expected exchange rate decline from 18.72 to 19.80 [2]. - Analysts predict that the peso will depreciate to 20.13 per dollar by the end of the year, reflecting a 7% decline from current levels, indicating a general expectation of weakening in the medium to long term [2]. Group 2: Market Concerns and Influencing Factors - Market concerns are heightened due to the impending expiration of the U.S. tariff freeze on July 9, which could lead to renewed trade tensions if tariffs are reinstated [2][3]. - Barclays Bank's foreign exchange strategist noted that the current market has not fully priced in the extreme risks associated with U.S. tariff policies, suggesting that the peso could face additional depreciation pressure in a worst-case scenario [3]. - The Mexican peso's valuation is at a high stage, and technical factors may exert downward pressure, prompting short-term investors to realize profits and potentially lower the exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Recent Trends and Support Factors - On July 4, despite low trading volumes due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, the peso strengthened slightly, closing at 18.6297, marking a 0.18% increase from the previous trading day [4]. - The peso has appreciated by approximately 1.18% since last Friday, reaching its highest level since August of the previous year, supported by a weaker dollar and favorable conditions in the Mexican economy [4]. - Factors contributing to the peso's strong performance include a high-interest rate environment in Mexico, which attracts international capital, and the relatively mild trade regulations from the Trump administration [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican peso has appreciated approximately 1% against the US dollar during the day [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate movement indicates a strengthening of the Mexican peso in the foreign exchange market [1]

Group 1 - Emerging market arbitrage trading is resurging due to indications that President Trump's aggressive tariff measures may not be fully implemented, leading to reduced currency volatility [1] - The arbitrage return index, which reflects traders borrowing low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones, reached a seven-year high at the end of May [1] - Asset management companies have increased their long positions in emerging market currencies in recent weeks, with long positions in the Mexican peso reaching a nine-month high [1]

Group 1: US Dollar - The US House of Representatives is set to vote on Trump's tax reform bill [2] - US Commerce Secretary Ross expressed the desire to reach trade agreements with "most" major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer [2] - National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that if a 3% growth is achieved, Trump's tax plan could balance the budget, predicting economic growth to exceed 3% [2] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 41 economists believe Trump's policies have negatively impacted the US economy, with 23 stating the impact is significant; the US economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with April's survey [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - Japanese central bank board member Noguchi stated that there is no need for significant adjustments to the existing balance sheet reduction plan, with intervention only necessary in case of "serious disruptions" in the bond market [3] - The US Treasury confirmed that the current USD/JPY exchange rate reflects fundamental conditions, with no discussions on exchange rate levels [3] - A Reuters survey revealed that two-thirds of Japanese companies want the Bank of Japan to pause interest rate hikes due to Trump's tariff measures [3] - The German Economic Expert Council downgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast for Germany from 0.4% to 0.0% [3] - European Central Bank Vice President de Guindos noted that Eurozone bond yields have decoupled from the US, with the interest rate differential remaining manageable; to prevent inflation from falling below 2%, rates may need to drop below the neutral rate of 1.5%-2% [3] Group 3: Other Developments - The Thai Commerce Minister expressed a desire for a weaker Thai Baht [4] - Bank of America recommended a bullish stance on the Euro against the Mexican Peso, stating that the Peso is overvalued [4] - The Bank of Indonesia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 5.5%, in line with market expectations [4]