Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are focusing on the potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with increasing expectations for interest rate cuts as the Fed's September rate decision approaches [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Multiple institutions are betting on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, leading to a rise in rate cut expectations [1] - The Fed is more likely to initiate preemptive rate cuts in the context of an economic soft landing [1] Group 2: Impact on Global Capital Flows - A potential rate cut by the Fed could reshape global capital flow patterns, presenting a capital revaluation opportunity for emerging markets [1] - Risk assets are entering a favorable window for investment, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to capture liquidity dividends and align with industrial trends during the reconstruction of global liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global capital market is increasingly focused on the potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with rising expectations for interest rate cuts in September [1][2][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - Multiple institutions are betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent inflation and employment data [2][3] - Recent inflation data has been in line with or below expectations, alleviating concerns about a rebound due to tariffs, thus supporting the case for a rate cut [2][3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, with job additions significantly below market expectations, which has heightened rate cut expectations [2][3] Group 2: Impact on Emerging Markets - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to reshape global capital flows, providing a revaluation opportunity for emerging markets [1][4] - Historically, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have positively impacted A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly benefiting the more liquidity-sensitive Hong Kong market [4] - The current improvement in market sentiment and fundamentals in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks may amplify the benefits from a rate cut, with Hong Kong's low valuation and supportive domestic policies creating a dual attraction [4][6] Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - The anticipated rate cut is likely to create a favorable window for risk assets, with different scenarios leading to varied asset performance [5][6] - In a soft landing scenario, risk assets like U.S. stocks may perform well, while gold may benefit during the rate cut anticipation phase [5] - A dynamic allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on emerging markets and sectors sensitive to interest rates, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which may see improved performance due to lower financing costs and technological advancements [6]