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全球基金经理风险资产配置创纪录 美银分析师警告卖出信号
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-07-16 05:47
Group 1 - The survey conducted from July 3 to July 10 covered 175 fund managers managing $434 billion in assets, revealing that investor risk exposure has reached its highest level since 2002, with a significant increase in stock allocation and improved earnings expectations, while recession fears have nearly vanished [1] - The S&P 500 index continues to hit record highs, reflecting increased market confidence in corporate earnings prospects and the U.S. ability to handle trade disputes [1] - Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett noted that "greed is always harder to reverse than fear," emphasizing that despite the optimistic investor sentiment, the survey has historically indicated key market turning points in the past 12 months [1] Group 2 - Cash allocation is below 4.0%, soft landing expectations exceed 90%, and stock over-allocation is at 20%, suggesting the market may be approaching an "overheated" state [1] - The survey identified the most crowded trading strategies currently as shorting the dollar (34%), going long on the "seven giants" tech stocks (26%), going long on gold (25%), and going long on EU stocks (6%) [1] - Investors expect the final tariff rate from the U.S. on trade partners to be 14%, an increase of 1 percentage point from June [1] Group 3 - Hartnett added that while there is a risk of a pullback, a large-scale sell-off is not anticipated this summer, as stock exposure has not yet reached extreme levels and bond market volatility remains manageable [1]