安联中国精选混合基金经理程彧在接受上证报记者采访时表示，美联储12月议息会议确实会对全球大类 资产产生直接影响：一方面，是否降息对于美债与全球大宗商品价格产生直接影响；另一方面，对美国 经济与美股表现会有直接的影响，进而可能对全球经济与全球股市产生溢出传导效应。值得关注的是， 当前美国的传统经济发展面临挑战，其人工智能产业也将严重依赖外部融资，因此美联储的货币政策对 于美国传统产业、科技产业及美股具有重大影响。 威灵顿投资表示，无论美国经济是否陷入衰退，美联储重启降息都对风险资产构成支撑。尽管相关政策 存在不确定性，但在稳健的企业盈利和稳定的宏观数据支撑下，美股整体保持上行趋势。此外，虽然利 率有所下调，但是债券收益率仍高于历史平均水平，为投资者提供了具备吸引力的配置机会。 "我们虽总体上维持积极态度，但同时也注意到每个市场周期都有其独特性。当前风险资产估值已处于 高位，固定收益利差也在持续收窄。美联储降息并不等同于市场上涨，投资者仍应坚持以基本面分析作 为投资决策的核心依据。"威灵顿投资称。 除权益资产外，黄金也将在美联储降息政策下明显受益。惠理集团投资组合总监盛今对上证报记者表 示，在以往的降息周期中，黄 ...

Core Insights - Retail investors are dominating the U.S. stock market at an unprecedented scale, reshaping market dynamics through options and small stock trades as traditional institutional investors adopt a cautious stance amid historically high stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Investor Influence - The volume of 0DTE (zero days to expiration) options has surpassed 60% of total U.S. stock trading volume for the first time, indicating a significant shift in the influence of retail investors in the derivatives market [2]. - Retail investors are increasingly using 0DTE options due to their high leverage and potential for quick profits, contrasting with the cautious approach of hedge funds and long-term investment funds [2][3]. - The dominance of 0DTE options is affecting market price discovery and volatility, creating a unique market environment where prices rebound quickly after declines due to retail buying pressure [2]. Group 2: Surge in Fractional Share Trading - Fractional share trading has surged to a historical high, with its share of total trading rising from 31% in January 2019 to 66% in the third quarter of 2023, reflecting a significant increase in retail investor participation [3]. - The S&P 500 index shows that 59% of its stocks (293 out of 500) are priced between $100 and $1,000, with 78% of trades in this price range being executed as fractional shares [7]. Group 3: Continued Retail Fund Inflows - Retail investors have consistently pressured institutional investors, maintaining a net buying position in 19 out of the last 22 weeks [8]. - Citadel Securities reports that retail stock clients have maintained structural buying trends for 20 consecutive months in both nominal amounts and share counts [11]. - Recent data indicates that retail fund inflows reached a net buying balance of $16 billion, with overall market trading volume increasing by 8% week-over-week to 17 billion shares, demonstrating sustained risk appetite [13].

Core Viewpoint - The global capital market is increasingly focused on the potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with rising expectations for interest rate cuts in September [1][2][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - Multiple institutions are betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent inflation and employment data [2][3] - Recent inflation data has been in line with or below expectations, alleviating concerns about a rebound due to tariffs, thus supporting the case for a rate cut [2][3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, with job additions significantly below market expectations, which has heightened rate cut expectations [2][3] Group 2: Impact on Emerging Markets - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to reshape global capital flows, providing a revaluation opportunity for emerging markets [1][4] - Historically, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have positively impacted A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly benefiting the more liquidity-sensitive Hong Kong market [4] - The current improvement in market sentiment and fundamentals in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks may amplify the benefits from a rate cut, with Hong Kong's low valuation and supportive domestic policies creating a dual attraction [4][6] Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - The anticipated rate cut is likely to create a favorable window for risk assets, with different scenarios leading to varied asset performance [5][6] - In a soft landing scenario, risk assets like U.S. stocks may perform well, while gold may benefit during the rate cut anticipation phase [5] - A dynamic allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on emerging markets and sectors sensitive to interest rates, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which may see improved performance due to lower financing costs and technological advancements [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is rising, which could reshape global capital flows and provide opportunities for emerging markets [1][2] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve is likely to initiate preventive rate cuts in a soft landing scenario, creating a window for risk assets to be positioned [1][4] - The upcoming interest rate decision in September is heavily influenced by recent U.S. inflation data and employment market conditions, with a significant rise in unemployment and lower-than-expected job growth [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts are expected to positively impact A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly benefiting the more liquidity-sensitive Hong Kong market [2][3] - Historical trends indicate that rate cuts typically support A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with current market sentiment and improving fundamentals enhancing this effect [3][5] - The dynamics of capital flow between U.S. stocks and Asian markets will need to be monitored post-rate cut, as funds may remain in U.S. equities [3][5] Group 3 - Different scenarios of rate cuts will lead to varying asset performances, with preventive cuts in a soft landing likely benefiting equities, while passive cuts in a recession may favor safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries [4][5] - The current market environment suggests that the upcoming rate cut is more aligned with a preventive approach, indicating a favorable window for risk assets [4][5] - Investors are advised to adopt a dynamic allocation strategy, focusing on emerging markets and sectors sensitive to interest rates, while closely tracking economic data and policy signals post-rate cut [5]

Group 1 - The survey conducted from July 3 to July 10 covered 175 fund managers managing $434 billion in assets, revealing that investor risk exposure has reached its highest level since 2002, with a significant increase in stock allocation and improved earnings expectations, while recession fears have nearly vanished [1] - The S&P 500 index continues to hit record highs, reflecting increased market confidence in corporate earnings prospects and the U.S. ability to handle trade disputes [1] - Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett noted that "greed is always harder to reverse than fear," emphasizing that despite the optimistic investor sentiment, the survey has historically indicated key market turning points in the past 12 months [1] Group 2 - Cash allocation is below 4.0%, soft landing expectations exceed 90%, and stock over-allocation is at 20%, suggesting the market may be approaching an "overheated" state [1] - The survey identified the most crowded trading strategies currently as shorting the dollar (34%), going long on the "seven giants" tech stocks (26%), going long on gold (25%), and going long on EU stocks (6%) [1] - Investors expect the final tariff rate from the U.S. on trade partners to be 14%, an increase of 1 percentage point from June [1] Group 3 - Hartnett added that while there is a risk of a pullback, a large-scale sell-off is not anticipated this summer, as stock exposure has not yet reached extreme levels and bond market volatility remains manageable [1]