调查揭示当前市场最拥挤的交易策略包括：做空美元(34%)、做多"七巨头"科技股(26%)、做多黄金(25%)和做多欧盟股票(6%)。投资者预期美国对贸易伙伴 最终关税税率为14%，较6月上升1个百分点。 这份7月3日至10日进行的调查覆盖了175名管理着4340亿美元资产的基金经理。结果显示，投资者风险敞口达到2002年以来最高水平，股票配置激增，盈利 预期显著改善，衰退担忧几乎消失。标普500指数持续刷新历史新高的背景下，市场对企业盈利前景和美国应对贸易争端的能力信心增强。 值得注意的是，美银分析师Michael Hartnett称"贪婪总是比恐惧更难逆转"。尽管调查显示投资者情绪显著乐观，但他强调美银基金经理调查在过去12个月的 关键市场拐点均发出准确反向信号。现金配置水平低于4.0%、软着陆预期超过90%、股票超配20%等指标均显示市场可能已接近"过热"状态。 【环球网财经综合报道】据彭博社等外媒报道，美国银行最新调查显示，过去三个月投资者的风险偏好增长速度创下2001年以来最快纪录。7月份，投资者 对美国股票的配置出现12月以来最大增幅，科技股配置创下2009年以来最大三个月增幅。与此同时，基金经理持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's marks the end of the AAA era, highlighting structural issues in U.S. debt sustainability and raising concerns about the country's fiscal outlook [1][3][10] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," the first loss of the highest rating since 1919, indicating a significant shift in the perception of U.S. fiscal health [3][4] - The downgrade is attributed to the rising total debt, structural expansion of fiscal deficits, and increased interest payments amid a higher interest rate environment [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, there was a poor subscription for the 20-year Treasury bond auction, indicating rising financing pressures and a shift in market sentiment [1][4] - As of May 27, the 20-year Treasury yield fluctuated around 5%, while the 10-year yield remained at approximately 4.5%, reflecting heightened market concerns [1] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The U.S. debt sustainability is increasingly reliant on short-term debt refinancing, which exposes the financial system to significant vulnerabilities amid policy uncertainty and market volatility [4][5] - The current fiscal structure shows a growing dependency on short-term debt, which, despite its lower proportion, poses a critical risk due to its frequent issuance and reliance on market confidence [4][5] Group 4: Global Implications - The downgrade signals a potential reassessment of the risk-return profile of U.S. dollar assets by long-term investors, leading to increased allocations towards non-U.S. currencies and physical safe-haven assets [2][10] - The shift in the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a "risk-free asset" could trigger a broader re-evaluation of asset pricing and liquidity expectations in global capital markets [10][11]