国泰海通证券 研究所 国泰海通证券宏观研究团队 框架报告系列电话会 张剑宇 宏观研究助理 应露婉 云观研究分析 据 云观研究分析 刃姜树 陆究分析 to a mages 黄放南 首席分析 宏 汪 明 8月5日-9月8日 早8:00 "新宏观" 分析框架的大变革 "新线索" 全球资产的重定价 "新时期" . 财富配置的大迁徙 "新阶段" . 大国博弈的再平衡 交流安排 (*每早8:00,欢迎参会) & VChoice数据 92 道合 & 同花顺 图门 昌期 星期 题目 主讲人 "新宏观"： 分析框架的大变革 "新宏观"框架分享 2025/8/5 星期二 型中华 我所经历和研究的十年宏观 "信任"渐退:全球贸易、货币的大迁徙 星期三 六十六 2025/8/6 新质生产力全解 星期四 刘姜枫 2025/8/7 转型之路:跨越中等收入陷阱 刘姜枫 2025/8/8 星期五 投资于人:"巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应"的回归 2025/8/10 星期日 黄汝南 苗为南 给北京。 外资带在中城、澳大电网名称识论坛 2025/8/11 足 朗 -- | 2025/8/12 | 星期二 | 海外经验:消化地产泡沫,需要多少年? | 李 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global macroeconomic environment, trade dynamics, and the implications for various industries, particularly focusing on China and the U.S. manufacturing sector. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Global Trust System Erosion**: The global trust in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds has weakened due to trade frictions and foreign reserve freezes, prompting countries to diversify their asset allocations and reduce reliance on the dollar [1][5][10]. 2. **Rising Wealth Inequality**: Increasing wealth disparity is leading to heightened social tensions, which could result in political forces shifting internal conflicts outward, posing global risks [1][6][8]. 3. **U.S. Trade Frictions**: The U.S. has initiated trade tensions to secure its economy, reduce dependence on foreign core products, and revive domestic manufacturing to boost employment [1][9]. 4. **China's Resource Security**: China is focusing on enhancing the security of its core resources, including commodities and technology, to achieve self-sufficiency in its supply chains [1][10]. 5. **Shift in China's Social Contradictions**: The primary social contradiction in China has shifted to the growing needs for a better life versus unbalanced development, leading to a policy focus on addressing these imbalances [1][11][12]. 6. **Real Estate Cycle Impact**: The real estate cycle has reached a turning point since 2018, significantly affecting China's interest rate system and necessitating a reevaluation of strategies [1][14][15]. 7. **Investment Strategy in Low Inflation**: In a low inflation environment, preserving capital should be the main goal for wealth allocation, favoring stable assets and high-dividend opportunities [2][19]. 8. **Changes in Global Asset Pricing**: The global asset pricing paradigm has shifted, with countries reassessing their relationships with the U.S. and becoming more cautious in their investments in U.S. debt [1][18]. 9. **Long-term Investment Opportunities**: High-dividend assets and export-oriented investments are highlighted as valuable in the current economic climate, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and solar modules [22]. 10. **New Consumption Trends**: Emerging consumption trends, such as value-driven and emotional purchases, are identified as having significant market potential [23]. 11. **Technological Innovation**: Technological advancements are expected to lower production costs and create substantial investment opportunities, despite not significantly increasing inflation [24]. 12. **Adjustment of Investment Thinking**: A shift in investment thinking is necessary to adapt to the new macroeconomic framework, moving away from traditional stimulus measures and focusing on high-quality development [25]. 13. **Optimistic Outlook on China's Economy**: There is a positive outlook on China's economic prospects, driven by the competitiveness of its manufacturing sector and the potential for significant investment opportunities [26]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of historical, political, and international relations factors to navigate the changing macroeconomic landscape effectively [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of macroeconomic analysis frameworks, highlighting the revaluation of global assets, the migration of wealth allocation, and the rebalancing of great power competition in the current economic landscape [5]. Group 1: New Macro Analysis Framework - The article introduces a "New Macro" framework that signifies a significant change in the analysis of macroeconomic conditions [5]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the new clues related to global asset revaluation [5]. Group 2: Wealth Allocation Migration - The article outlines a "New Era" characterized by a major shift in wealth allocation strategies [5]. - It discusses how low interest rates influence asset allocation decisions among residents and financial institutions [5]. Group 3: Rebalancing of Great Power Competition - The article presents a "New Stage" focusing on the rebalancing of great power competition, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [5]. - It highlights the implications of U.S. fiscal policies, such as tax cuts and tariffs, on global economic dynamics [5].