新开工边际变化

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重点工程发力,关注新开工边际变化
HTSC· 2025-08-15 11:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector and the building materials sector [6]. Core Insights - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to continue, with a focus on key projects in the western region, such as the Yajiang Group and Xinjiang Tibet Railway Company, which are likely to enhance growth stability [1]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a decline in sales and new starts, but recent policy support may improve retail consumption and new construction starts [2]. - Cement production has seen a decline in both volume and price, but there are signs of price stabilization in certain regions as of mid-August [3]. - The flat glass market has shown fluctuations in prices, with a rebound in photovoltaic glass prices due to inventory reduction [4]. Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - From January to July 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 3.2% year-on-year, while real estate and manufacturing investments declined by 12.0% and increased by 6.2%, respectively [1]. - Key projects in the western region are expected to bolster growth, with recommendations for companies like Tunnel Co., China National Materials, and others [1]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales, new starts, and completion areas saw declines of 4.0%, 19.4%, and 16.5% year-on-year, respectively, but new policies may help improve these figures [2]. - Retail sales of building and decoration materials reached 96 billion yuan, up 2.2% year-on-year, indicating some recovery in the sector [2]. Cement Industry - Cement production from January to July 2025 totaled 958 million tons, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a significant price drop of 11.4% in July [3]. - As of mid-August, cement prices in the Yangtze River Delta region began to rise, suggesting potential stabilization in the market [3]. Glass Industry - The production of flat glass decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, with prices showing a significant drop in July but rebounding in early August due to inventory adjustments in photovoltaic glass [4]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends buying stocks such as Tunnel Co. (600820 CH), China National Materials (600970 CH), and others, with target prices set for each [8][30].