Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, but managed to achieve a slight increase in net profit, indicating resilience amid challenging market conditions [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.082 billion yuan, an increase of 1.05% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 6.766 billion yuan, down 3.57% year-on-year, and net profit of 638 million yuan, up 3.26% year-on-year [1]. Market Conditions and Performance Drivers - The decline in revenue was attributed to pressure from both electricity volume and price. The total electricity consumption in Anhui province increased by 2.6% year-on-year, but industrial power generation fell by 4.8% [2]. - The company’s new power generation units, including the two 660 MW coal-fired units in Xinjiang and the expansion of the Qianyingzi power plant, are expected to alleviate some of the pressure on electricity volume [2]. - The average transaction price for electricity in Anhui decreased, impacting the company's selling price [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company experienced a significant reduction in coal prices in Q2 2025, which positively impacted profit margins. The gross profit margin improved to 17.41% in Q2 from 15.02% in Q1 [3]. - R&D expenses increased significantly by 169.24% year-on-year, contributing to overall expense growth, while net investment income decreased by 1.87 billion yuan due to pressures on power business performance [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.203 billion yuan, 2.363 billion yuan, and 2.513 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6.75%, 7.29%, and 6.32% [4]. - As of August 27, 2025, the company's stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 7.52, 7.01, and 6.59 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4].

火电受益于成本下降，带动业绩有所增长。2025 年H1 公司归母净利润增速为29.39%，显著高于营收增 速，主要系由于煤炭价格下跌，公司所属火电厂燃料成本同比有所下降所致。分季度来看，公司Q1 归 母净利润同比-5.19%，降幅显著小于同期营收降幅；Q2 归母净利润同比+81.47%,系在营收增长的条件 下进一步提振盈利。整体来看，2025Q1 和Q2 公司毛利率分别为17.63%和23.75%，同比分别提升2.57 和7.53pct。我们认为，尽管当前煤价有所反弹，但反弹力度相对较弱，H2 公司的火电业务仍有望受益 于煤价相对低位，盈利能力保持较好水平。 上高百万火电机组投产在即，明年有望全面贡献增量。截至2024 年底，公司在运火电装机容量占江西 省火电总装机容量的比例约12.63%，2025年H1，公司在运火电装机容量为340 万千瓦，并托管信电公 司的2*66 万千瓦火电机组。根据公司建设规划，目前公司在建火电机组为上高电厂两台机组，其采用 100 万千瓦等级高效超超临界的凝汽式燃煤发电机组，其中1 号机组计划2025 年8 月25 日投产，2 号机 组计划2025 年11 月25 日投产，明年起有 ...