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帮主郑重:房价连跌8个月!数据背后的“危”与“机”,中长线视角怎么看?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 12:13
Core Viewpoint - The recent data on housing prices indicates a continued decline for the eighth consecutive month, highlighting a significant shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3]. Market Trends - Housing prices in 70 cities have shown a dual decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, with first-tier cities demonstrating stronger resilience compared to second and third-tier cities, which are under greater pressure [3]. - The downward pressure on new home prices is generally greater than that on second-hand homes, reflecting a broader issue of weak confidence and expectations in the market [3]. Policy Shifts - The focus of government policy has shifted from "de-leveraging and risk prevention" to "risk prevention, market stabilization, and promoting transformation," indicating a more supportive environment for the real estate sector [3]. - Initiatives such as financial support for reasonable financing of real estate companies and optimization of purchase restrictions in key cities aim to transition the market from a "free fall" to a "soft landing" [3]. Investment Strategies - Investors should adopt a "survivor mentality" when selecting real estate stocks, focusing on financially stable companies with low financing costs and high operational efficiency, rather than betting on a broad industry rebound [4]. - Opportunities may arise in the long industrial chain associated with real estate stabilization, particularly in upstream sectors like building materials and home furnishings, as well as downstream areas linked to property management and home appliances [4]. - The emergence of new models, such as affordable housing and urban village renovations, driven by policy support, could create a new market segment, offering stable business growth for related construction and service companies [4]. Conclusion - The recent housing price data serves as a summary of past trends rather than a definitive forecast for the future, signaling the end of an old cycle and the challenging establishment of a new balance [5].