Workflow
新能源+重载铁路
icon
Search documents
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:05
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily review of coke and coking coal futures on September 24, 2025, written by the black metal research team of CCB Futures [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - On September 23, the main contracts J2601 and JM2601 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded after hitting lows. The closing prices of J2601 and JM2601 were 1717.5 yuan/ton and 1217.5 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of 0.67% and 0.94% [5] - The long - short positions of the top 20 in the black - series futures on September 23 showed different trends in different contracts. For example, the long - short position deviation of RB2601 was - 4.20% [6] Group 3: Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On September 23, the spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao, Qingdao, and Tianjin ports remained unchanged. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in some regions increased, such as a 60 - yuan increase in Tangshan and a 30 - yuan increase in Handan [8] - The daily KDJ indicators of the J2601 and JM2601 contracts continued to diverge, with the J - value falling, the K - value turning down, and the D - value rising, showing a potential dead - cross trend. The MACD green bars of the two contracts narrowed for two consecutive trading days [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years [10] - In terms of fundamentals, coke production from independent coking plants slightly declined from a new high since late May, while that from steel mills significantly increased from a low since August 2023. Coke inventory at ports dropped to a new low since early August, while steel mill inventory increased for four consecutive weeks, and coking plant inventory decreased after four weeks of slight increase. Tonnage coke profit turned from profit to loss after five weeks of profitability. After the second round of spot price cuts on September 15, some Shanxi coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 30 yuan/ton on September 22 [10] - For coking coal, from January to August, the year - on - year decline in the import volume of coal and lignite narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and that of coking coal narrowed slightly to - 7.6%. Mine inventories of clean coal and raw coal decreased significantly in the past 13 weeks, with overall declines of 53.4% and 33.0% respectively. Independent coking plant inventory increased significantly from a low since mid - July, steel mill inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks from a high since early February, and port inventory increased from a low since early July last year in the past five weeks. Some spot coking coal prices rose again [11] - Overall, after a significant correction from mid - August to early September, the double - coke futures rebounded in mid - September but declined again in late September due to less incremental policies compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the coal - coke market will strengthen again after consolidation from late September to early October, and attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of finished product profits and the raw material inventory replenishment intentions of steel mills and coking plants [11] Group 5: Industry News - As of now, 1.12 billion kilowatts of coal - fired power units and 950 million tons of crude steel production capacity in China have completed ultra - low emission transformation [12] - In August 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 2.5 million and 2.54 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 9% and 11.1%, and year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 16.5% [12] - In August 2025, China's coking coal imports reached 10.162 million tons, the highest monthly level this year, with a year - on - year decline of 5.0% but a month - on - month increase of 5.6%. Imports from Mongolia reached 6.015 million tons, the highest since 2024 [13] - In August 2025, China's imports of thermal coal (non - coking coal) were 32.575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.31% and a month - on - month increase of 25.35%, reaching a new high this year [14] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the spot price indices of metallurgical coke and main coking coal, production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, iron water production, inventory of coke and coking coal, and basis differences [16][19][20]