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国能日新(301162):新能源全面入市带动公司收入高增
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:50
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.14%, driven by pre-market installations of new energy power stations and contributions from distributed power stations under the "Four Can" requirements [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.61 million yuan in Q1 2025, up from 12.34 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to revenue growth enhancing profitability [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 56.12%, a decrease of 9.14 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of hardware in new customer installations [2] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 20.29%, 7.26%, and 14.27% respectively, showing significant declines of -5.76, -2.54, and -6.17 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The distributed photovoltaic incremental market is expected to grow, with the company being a leading provider of power prediction services, achieving industry-leading accuracy and market share [3] - The release of the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" by the National Energy Administration is anticipated to create an incremental market for the company's business [4] Group 3: Growth Potential - The company has served over 4,000 new energy power station clients, providing data support for the development of an electricity trading decision-making platform [5] - The recent policy changes aimed at market-oriented pricing for new energy generation are expected to deepen the market reform, making price curve predictions a necessity for power stations, thus presenting a potential turning point for the company's second growth curve [5] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 122 million, 154 million, and 196 million yuan for 2025-2027 [6] - The target price is set at 79.06 yuan, based on a 65.0 times 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting the growth potential from the distributed market and the second growth curve [6]