[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 分布式功率预测市场高景气度助力公司 2025H1 业绩实现高增 业务进展、盈利预测与估值不及预期。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 456 | 550 | 702 | 891 | 1,130 | | (+/-)% | 26.89% | 20.50% | 27.60% | 26.97% | 26.90% | | 归属母公司净利润 | 84 | 94 | 120 | 154 | 196 | | (+/-)% | 25.59% | 11.09% | 28.75% | 28.11% | 27.25% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.85 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 1.16 | 1.48 | | 市盈率 | 61.04 | 48.40 | 58.98 | 46.03 | 36.18 | | 市净率 | 4.80 | 3.94 | 4.41 | 4.12 | ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company focuses on photovoltaic new energy business, including centralized photovoltaic power stations and distributed photovoltaic systems for commercial and residential use [2][3] - The chairman introduced the company's development history and main business operations during the investor relations activity [2] Group 2: Future Development Plans - The company aims to become a leading provider of research, design, system integration, and investment operation services in the photovoltaic and wind power sectors [3] - Plans to expand overseas, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East, focusing on energy storage and commercial vehicle charging solutions [3] Group 3: Key Business Areas - Emphasis on developing a comprehensive technical and business model that integrates research and design, product manufacturing, system integration, and investment operations [3] - Development of the "Little Ant" trackless intelligent charging and swapping robot (AGV 2.30) series, which includes energy storage battery systems and intelligent scheduling systems [3]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain and new energy power market are undergoing significant changes, requiring downstream companies to adapt their strategies and offerings to remain competitive [2] Group 1: Market Changes and Company Strategy - After the "531" policy, photovoltaic power plants are increasingly focusing on consumption capacity in site selection, channels, and business models [2] - TCL Photovoltaic Technology has made strategic adjustments, prioritizing high-consumption areas and enterprises for business development [3] - The company has introduced financial products and solutions, such as the "Special Energy" series, which includes innovative financing options that extend beyond traditional models [3] Group 2: International Market Expansion - TCL's overseas business has evolved, with TCL SunPower Global enabling entry into high-end international markets, expanding from Europe to Southeast Asia and the Middle East [4] - The company tailors products to different regions, emphasizing aesthetics and quality in Europe while adapting to local weather conditions in Southeast Asia [4] Group 3: Product Differentiation and Innovation - The "Zero Carbon Villa" product targets new consumer groups, including villa owners and self-built homeowners, with plans for more financial and scenario-based solutions [5] - The company's direction is towards "integration," combining photovoltaic systems with storage, charging piles, and heat pumps, exemplified by the domestic version of the overseas "photovoltaic-storage-pump-charging" system [6] Group 4: Response to Market Volatility - The company aims for high-quality development, focusing on finding certainty amid uncertainty, with a strong belief in the long-term demand for photovoltaic solutions and carbon neutrality goals [7] - The decrease in upstream product prices is seen as beneficial for downstream operations, although it intensifies market competition [8] Group 5: AI Integration - AI is being integrated into various operational processes, including document review and design, to enhance efficiency and reduce labor costs [9] - The company is focusing on AI design as a key area, utilizing AI for site assessments and planning, and is also exploring AI applications in electricity trading [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.14%, driven by pre-market installations of new energy power stations and contributions from distributed power stations under the "Four Can" requirements [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.61 million yuan in Q1 2025, up from 12.34 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to revenue growth enhancing profitability [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 56.12%, a decrease of 9.14 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of hardware in new customer installations [2] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 20.29%, 7.26%, and 14.27% respectively, showing significant declines of -5.76, -2.54, and -6.17 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The distributed photovoltaic incremental market is expected to grow, with the company being a leading provider of power prediction services, achieving industry-leading accuracy and market share [3] - The release of the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" by the National Energy Administration is anticipated to create an incremental market for the company's business [4] Group 3: Growth Potential - The company has served over 4,000 new energy power station clients, providing data support for the development of an electricity trading decision-making platform [5] - The recent policy changes aimed at market-oriented pricing for new energy generation are expected to deepen the market reform, making price curve predictions a necessity for power stations, thus presenting a potential turning point for the company's second growth curve [5] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 122 million, 154 million, and 196 million yuan for 2025-2027 [6] - The target price is set at 79.06 yuan, based on a 65.0 times 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting the growth potential from the distributed market and the second growth curve [6]