核心结论 分析师 晨会纪要 【策略】"资金洞察"系列报告（四）：居民存款，何时搬家？ 居民资金尚未跑步入市，但存款搬家已经初现端倪。历史上，居民存款搬家 一般在熊牛切换后的 10-12 个月开启，当前距离去年 9.24 熊牛切换已有 11 个月，居民存款搬家可期。在居民存款搬家初期，市场可能会有 2-3 个月的 盘整；但如果存款搬家带动各类资金放量流入，市场或迎来新一轮主升浪行 情。 【机械设备】无人车系列专题报告 1：无人环卫车：千亿市场空间，设备+ 运营双重受益 随着无人环卫领域逐步度过 0-1 阶段步入量产，环卫领域运营企业有望迎来 一轮设备高景气成长+运营业务盈利显著改善，走出业绩+估值双提振的戴维 斯双击，建议关注劲旅环境/玉禾田/福龙马/侨银股份/盈峰环境。 【专用设备】国产算力链崛起，关注上游自主可控环节 当前我们认为科创 50 成分股和半导体设备股交集具备较大的补涨潜力，本 轮国产 AI 行情具备更强的基本面支撑，我们认为半导体上游的自主可控环 节作为产业链核心瓶颈，核心受益，建议关注：半导体前道设备/后道测试 设备，光刻机产业链相关标的。 【计算机】国能日新（301162.SZ）2025 半 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive outlook for the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and wind power installations, with significant growth rates reported for 2025 [1] - According to the National Energy Administration, the newly installed capacity for solar power reached 104.93 GW in the first four months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 74.6%, while wind power installations reached 19.96 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 18.53% [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market share in the distributed solar power sector, which is characterized by a large number of small-scale projects and low unit prices, primarily involving small and medium-sized power forecasting firms [1] Group 2 - The company is leveraging AI technology to achieve precise forecasting and optimize trading strategies, providing differentiated solutions for various market participants and promoting refined operations [1] - The company's traditional business is progressing smoothly, and its innovative business initiatives are ongoing, with business development in the first half of 2025 meeting expectations [1] - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a specific A-share stock issuance in 2024 and is actively advancing the issuance process [1]

Group 1: Company Performance and Growth - As of the end of 2024, the company serves 4,345 renewable energy stations, a net increase of 755 stations compared to the same period in 2023, indicating a growth trend in service scale [2] - The renewal rate for existing customers in the power forecasting business remains above 95% as of the end of 2024, reflecting strong customer retention [2] - The company's sales expenses increased by approximately 23% year-on-year in 2024, driven by market expansion strategies and increased operational workload [7] Group 2: Market Trends and Policy Impact - The distributed photovoltaic market is experiencing rapid growth due to new policies, with the National Energy Administration's recent guidelines emphasizing the need for power forecasting capabilities in new distributed energy stations [3] - The company anticipates a significant increase in the number of distributed photovoltaic clients starting in 2025, driven by the implementation of the "Four Available" management requirements [3] - Regulatory changes in provinces like East China, Shanxi, and Jiangsu are pushing for upgrades in existing distributed energy stations to meet new power forecasting and grid control standards [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The distributed power forecasting market is characterized by a large number of small-scale projects with lower unit prices, making it less attractive for large integrated companies [5] - The current market participants in distributed power forecasting are primarily small to medium-sized firms, indicating an opportunity for the company to capture a larger market share [5] Group 4: Technological Advancements - The company has upgraded its proprietary "Kuangming" renewable energy model, enhancing stability and performance while improving forecasting accuracy and efficiency [7] - The integration of advanced model technologies aims to strengthen the company's capabilities in regional forecasting, big data decision-making, and extreme weather prediction [7] - Future efforts will focus on further integrating large model technology with various business lines to enhance product competitiveness and cost-effectiveness [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.14%, driven by pre-market installations of new energy power stations and contributions from distributed power stations under the "Four Can" requirements [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.61 million yuan in Q1 2025, up from 12.34 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to revenue growth enhancing profitability [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 56.12%, a decrease of 9.14 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of hardware in new customer installations [2] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 20.29%, 7.26%, and 14.27% respectively, showing significant declines of -5.76, -2.54, and -6.17 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The distributed photovoltaic incremental market is expected to grow, with the company being a leading provider of power prediction services, achieving industry-leading accuracy and market share [3] - The release of the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" by the National Energy Administration is anticipated to create an incremental market for the company's business [4] Group 3: Growth Potential - The company has served over 4,000 new energy power station clients, providing data support for the development of an electricity trading decision-making platform [5] - The recent policy changes aimed at market-oriented pricing for new energy generation are expected to deepen the market reform, making price curve predictions a necessity for power stations, thus presenting a potential turning point for the company's second growth curve [5] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 122 million, 154 million, and 196 million yuan for 2025-2027 [6] - The target price is set at 79.06 yuan, based on a 65.0 times 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting the growth potential from the distributed market and the second growth curve [6]