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A股下半年怎么走?十大券商最新研判来了!
Group 1 - The Chinese capital market is expected to show a "stable index, structural bull" trend in the second half of the year, indicating significant potential for A-shares [2] - Long-term funds are anticipated to become an important incremental capital source for the market, suggesting a structural bull market for A-shares [2][3] - The capital market is projected to exhibit a "dual bull" trend in stocks and bonds by the second half of 2025 [3] Group 2 - The stock market is expected to respond more quickly to policy easing, potentially leading to an upward turning point among major asset classes [3] - A-shares may experience a volatile trend due to a combination of declining profits and credit conditions in the second half of the year [4] - The profit bottom for A-shares may not arrive until at least the third quarter, indicating weakening elasticity in the profit cycle [5] Group 3 - Key sectors attracting institutional interest include banking, which offers safety and yield certainty amid external uncertainties and low interest rates [6] - The new consumption sector is seen as a growth area, driven by changing consumption concepts among Generation Z [7] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to see significant licensing opportunities in 2025, with potential catalysts for market performance in the second half of the year [7] Group 4 - The technology sector, having adjusted valuations to reasonable levels, may present new investment opportunities in the second half of the year [7] - The smart driving sector is poised for growth, with new vehicle launches focusing on intelligence and currently low valuations of related companies [7] - The new energy vehicle sector typically experiences two market cycles: the first driven by expectations and the second by actual performance [8] Group 5 - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a phase of volatility followed by an upward trend in the second half of the year [9] - The market is expected to continue a pattern of oscillation and gradual ascent [9]