加上今天，仅仅剩余三天2025年就彻底划上句号了。也可以将最后这三个交易日当成收官之战，毕竟沪指相差不到40点就到4000点了，以之前市场连续收出 的8根阳线看，到4000点之上估计是没啥问题了。 现在的核心就在于，最终会不会在12月31日收市的时候到4000点呢，虽然说这是一个整数关口，但是到了4000点之上，和最终收在4000点之下还是很有讲究 的，坦率的说，最终如果在今年能收在4000点之上，市场的体验会好一点，大家最起码会对明年的行情，尤其是春季行情有好的期待。 但是如果最终没能站上4000点，市场情绪多少会受到一些影响，也会对明年的预期，从心理层面上多少有点不及预期的想法，我觉得这都很正常，毕竟大家 重视的，往往是短期的，而对时间周期稍长点的走势，好像并不是那么特别上心，这是多数人的想法。 以我目前的想法看，最后这三天，其实市场最好的方式先不要上去，利用节前这三天来一次相对充分的调整，比如说沪指能回踩一下3900点，等元旦之后来 一个开门红，最起码1月份和2月份行情是可以期待的，简单说，短暂的调整是为了更长周期的上涨。 为什么这么说呢？元旦节前站上4000点虽然表面上很好，但这却为元旦之后的调整埋下 ...

一是以黄金股、铜业股为代表的资源主线在国际金价、国际银价相继创出历史新高的刺激下走出了高开 走高的态势。二是以保险股为代表的非银板块也同步走高。三是商业航天板块、储能板块等叙事主线形 成了领涨态势。 但是，在周五午市收盘前，上证综指等主要股指突然跳水，且商业航天板块、保险股等非银主线均出现 了一定程度的同步杀跌态势。这可能是因为两个因素，一是大行纷纷买入美元，对冲人民币升值的动 能，从而使得人民币汇率在周五盘中有所疲软。二是关于A500ETF近期持续放量引起相关各方关注的小 作文，使得部分敏感的交易型资金持股心态渐趋不稳，他们纷纷抛售近期涨幅可观的热门品种，如非银 板块、商业航天板块、储能板块、资源主线等品种。 周五A股市场出现了震荡中重心上移的态势。其中，上证综指已八连阳，彰显出多头强劲的做多意志。 不过，在午市前，上证综指、深证成指等主要股指均有一波短暂的"跳水"动作。但在午市后迅速收复， 成交金额也随之放大，沪深两市成交金额重返2万亿元，显示出场外资金利用此次盘中调整迅捷加仓， 从而意味着短线A股的做多能量进一步增强，有利于后续行情的演绎。 高风险偏好增量资金入场 在周五早盘，A股市场出现了"集体积极做 ...

12月18日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会四季度例会指出，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇 率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 王青认为，预计短期内人民币还会处在偏强运行状态，市场情绪偏高带动下，在岸市场升值"破7"的可 能性较大，但接下来能否站稳7.0之上有待进一步观察。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青25日接受中新经纬采访时表示，12月以来人民币对美元走强，主要有两大 原因：首先，美元指数跌破100，背后是市场对2026年美联储降息预期升温，带动人民币在内的非美货 币普遍升值。 其次，王青称，年底临近，企业结汇需求增加，也在带动人民币季节性走强；特别是近期人民币对美元 持续升值后，前期出口高增累积的结汇需求有可能在加速释放。 12月25日，数据显示，离岸人民币对美元升破7.0大关，最高触及6.9965，为2024年9月以来首次。在岸 人民币对美元升破7.01关口，现报7.0062，创2024年9月27日以来新高。 25日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布：人民币对美元中间价报7.0392元，相较前一交易日中 间价7.0471元，调升79个基点，续创2024年10月来新高。 "对于离 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 只争朝夕 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体上涨，沪指日线六连阳。截止收盘，沪指涨0.53%，收报3940.95点； 深证成指涨0.88%，收报13486.42点；创业板指涨0.77%，收报3229.58点。沪深两市成 交额18803亿，较昨日小幅缩量196亿。 老水看盘 一个 中信证券 ，一个 东方财富，前者主导上证指数走势，后者则牵动 深成指的 情绪。 今天 市场出现三次异动，一次发生在上午，两次出现在下午，下午的两个高位节点恰好对应这 两只个股的高点。 中信证券与东方财富同属大金融板块（券商板块），该板块 今天 整体上涨 0.93% ，涨幅不 仅高于上证指数的 0.53% ，也超过深成指的 0.88% 与创业板指的 0.77% 。 上证指数盘中上演 " 回马枪 " ，收盘报 3940.55 点，盘中最高触及 3946.75 点，再度形 成双底向上突破形态，这无疑将 " 跟与不跟 " 的选择难题抛给了散户投资者。 为何市场会选择券商板块作为突破方向？ 其一，该板块已持续调整四个月，高点出现在 8 月 25 日，从时间维度看，调整相对充分。 尤其东方财富从高点至近期低点， ...

富时中国A50指数期货涨1%。 格隆汇11月27日｜A股主要指数走强，创业板指涨2.05%，沪指涨0.57%，深成指涨1.25%。消费电子、 半导体芯片、算力硬件等方向涨幅居前，沪深京三市上涨个股近3300只。 | 上证指数 | 3886.21 | +22.03 | +0.57% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | | | | | 创业板指 | 3107.01 | +62.32 | +2.05% | | 399006 | | | | | 深证成指 | 13068.89 | +161.06 | +1.25% | | 399001 | | | | | 科创50 | 1347.38 | +32.34 | +2.46% | | 000688 | | | | | 北证50 | 1400.30 | +9.30 | +0.67% | | 899050 | | | | | 沪深300 | 4553.47 | +35.85 | +0.79% | | 000300 | | | | | 上证50 | 2984.16 | +12.36 | +0.42% | | 000016 | | | | ...

Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.71 trillion, a decrease of 17.7 billion compared to the previous trading day [1][7] - The three major A-share indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12% [1][2] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed strong performance, with major banks like Bank of China rising by 4%, China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank both increasing by over 3%, and Minsheng Bank up by over 2% [3][4] - Conversely, the shipbuilding sector experienced a decline, with all stocks in the sector showing negative performance, notably China Shipbuilding Special Gas down over 5% [5][6] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the banking, energy metals, and basic chemicals sectors, while outflows were noted in semiconductors, batteries, and cultural media sectors [10] - Specific stocks that saw significant net inflows included Xinyi Technology, Dazhong Public Utilities, and Tianfu Communication, with inflows of 9.61 billion, 8.12 billion, and 7.06 billion respectively [10] - Stocks that faced substantial net outflows included Molybdenum, Shannon Chip Creation, and CATL, with outflows of 13.77 billion, 13.71 billion, and 8.25 billion respectively [10] Analyst Insights - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the brokerage industry is expected to maintain its favorable outlook, with valuations still at low levels, indicating strategic allocation opportunities in the sector [10] - Huaxin Securities believes that the A-share market is still in the mid-stage of a bull market, with adjustments seen as a consolidation rather than a peak, focusing on low-position rebounds, profit recovery, and technology themes [10] - Dongguan Securities suggests that the current market is in a phase of oscillation and consolidation, with the Shanghai Index likely to stabilize around the 4000-point mark, while a long-term upward trend remains promising [10]

今日外出税局办事，写文有点晚了。 大A早上来回震荡，午后开始拉高，能够反转当下局势，继续震荡或者是4000点之后再度走高呢？ 有这种可能性，别掉以轻心，随便就能够把你给甩了。 不过，这个位置我完全没有想法。万一，我说万一，进去之后继续大幅杀跌，那我找不到招架之力。 等待最合适的机会再出手，依旧是我炒股的首要原则。大家根据能力圈，该上则上，不该上就等等。 第三：CRO连续大跌3天 第一：锂矿、硅料全面反攻 创下新高后，感觉CRO有点吃不消了，大跌3天，龙头更是天天走低。 这个位置去玩，无异于玩火。我宁愿静观其变。 别的不说了，网络环境好严格，视频都发不出去，希望大家多学习，提高独立判断思维，不要上当受骗。我任何时候，都没空也没想法主动联系大家！ 我是李聪，10年读书会主理人，活到老、学到老，关注我，一起向上成长！ 一个奇怪的数据大家参考下，截止到现在A股继续涨，涨幅超0.4%，不过盘面待涨家数只有4000多家，上涨的有1000来家。自己感受下。 板块上： 过去大家爱理不理，或者躲得远远，近两月，锂矿硅料成为两市最靓的仔，没有之一。 这不就是一个周期循环吗？你在低位不敢坚守，高位又匆匆忙忙，怪谁呢？ 第二：银行继 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - In the short term, the A-share market lacks a clear upward trend due to a relative policy vacuum at the macro level, with low trading volume and a continued volatile trend, currently in an accumulation phase. In the long term, the market is expected to have further upward potential, but the pace will be gradual. Key factors to watch for future market upswings include further release of overseas liquidity or substantial improvement signals in the domestic fundamentals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market and Liquidity - The central bank conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan. This week, a total of 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with daily maturities of 78.3 billion, 117.5 billion, 65.5 billion, 92.8 billion, and 141.7 billion yuan from Monday to Friday [3]. - Interest rates of various financial products changed: DRO01 closed at 1.48% with a 15.21 bp increase; DR007 at 1.50% with an 8.63 bp increase; GC001 at 1.21% with a 0.50 bp increase; GC007 at 1.48% with a 1.50 bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.58% with a 0.40 bp decrease; 5-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.50%; 1-year treasury bond yield was 1.40% with no change; 5-year treasury bond yield was 1.53% with a 0.25 bp decrease; 10-year treasury bond yield was 1.81% with no change; and 10-year US treasury bond yield was 4.11% with no change [3]. Stock Market Conditions - Yesterday, the stock market closed higher. The CSI 300 rose 0.35% to 4695.1, the SSE 50 rose 0.51% to 3053.9, the CSI 500 rose 0.22% to 7343.8, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.28% to 7563.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.1745 trillion yuan, an increase of 175.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with consumer sectors such as brewing, beauty care, tourism and hotels, food and beverages, and commercial department stores strengthening. Precious metals, airports, and jewelry sectors led the gains, while shipbuilding, small metals, and power supply equipment sectors led the losses [4]. - Trading volume and open interest of stock index futures changed: IF trading volume was 106,785, up 23.5%; IF open interest was 268,313, up 4.2%; IH trading volume was 45,910, up 21.4%; IH open interest was 96,711, up 6.3%; IC trading volume was 122,736, up 14.7%; IC open interest was 249,333, up 3.7%; IM trading volume was 194,473, up 3.7%; IM open interest was 354,677, down 0.5% [4]. - The premium and discount rates of stock index futures were as follows: IF premium/discount rates were 4.59% (current contract), 6.26% (near - term contract), 3.29% (quarterly contract), and 3.51% (average); IH premium/discount rates were - 0.04% (current contract), - 1.02% (near - term contract), 0.39% (quarterly contract), and 0.55% (average); IC premium/discount rates were 13.76% (current contract), 18.53% (near - term contract), 10.66% (quarterly contract), and 10.55% (average); IM premium/discount rates were 17.60% (current contract), 13.51% (near - term contract), 23.89% (quarterly contract), and 12.64% (average) [4].

Core Viewpoint - Ningquan Asset, a well-known private equity firm, announced it will suspend new investor subscriptions for all its funds starting October 30, 2025, while existing investors can still make additional subscriptions. This move has raised concerns about potential market risks and bearish signals due to the firm's history of accurately predicting market trends [1][2]. Company Summary - Ningquan Asset was founded by Yang Dong in January 2018 and has seen its managed assets exceed 40 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 this year [1]. - Yang Dong has a notable background in investment management, having previously held senior positions at Industrial Securities and Xincheng Fund, and is recognized for his accurate market risk warnings in 2007 and 2015 [1]. - The firm has registered nine new products this year, with the latest being "Ningquan Xinxing No. 4," established on September 24 [2]. Market Analysis - Industry insiders suggest that the decision to "close the fund" may reflect a cautious outlook on future market conditions or a need to manage the rapid growth of assets under management [2]. - Despite the suspension of new subscriptions, Ningquan Asset's latest monthly report indicates that while some market bubbles are evident, the firm does not chase hot stocks and holds a significant amount of "old" stocks, suggesting that there are still valuable investment opportunities available [2]. Holdings Overview - As of October 30, Ningquan Asset's products were among the top ten shareholders in five companies that disclosed their Q3 reports, with a total market value of approximately 378 million yuan [3]. - The firm increased its holdings in Zhuhai Ming Technology by 657,210 shares and became the eighth largest shareholder in Fuanna with 605,120 shares [3][4]. Industry Context - Several other large private equity firms have also chosen to control their fundraising pace this year, indicating a broader trend in the industry [5]. - The overall performance of the A-share market remains strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 4,000 points, despite the "closing" actions of these private equity firms [6].

Group 1 - A-shares have reached a new high, breaking the 10-year record and approaching 4000 points, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1] - The lithium and silicon materials sectors continue to rise, with lithium stabilizing and potentially gaining upward momentum similar to early August [1] - The Chinese medicine sector has experienced a slight decline, particularly among leading companies, which is attributed to fundamental issues and is not expected to reverse quickly [3] Group 2 - The securities sector opened higher due to positive external news, which has boosted market sentiment, although there is a preference to wait for lower entry points [4] - The overall market direction has been chosen, but there is a cautionary approach to avoid investments outside of one's expertise [5]