昨日上证指数盘中突破3700点整数关口，尽管尾盘冲高回落，但沪深北三市全天总成交额超2.3万亿元，创下年内单日成交额新高。市场热度持续 升温之下，后续走势成为市场各方关注焦点。 8月15日，三大股指早盘小幅拉升，其中上证180指数小幅上涨。截至上午10:00，兴业上证180ETF(530680)涨0.28%。相关成分股中，东方电缆 （603606）涨6.69%、中控技术涨2.04%、张江高科（600895）涨1.85%，中芯国际、用友网络（600588）、恒瑞医药（600276）等小幅跟涨。 东莞证券认为，周四，A股市场全天冲高回落，随着指数的快速上涨，在高位出现一定的分化，前期涨幅较高的板块普遍开始回调，市场分歧开 始显现。由于市场此前的上涨累积了一定的获利盘，获利盘回吐压力显现，此外，历史套牢盘的解套也对指数上攻形成一定压力，投资者需要注 意高位的震荡调整风险，虽然短期市场出现技术性调整，但中期来看，支撑A股向好的核心逻辑并未改变。 ...

早上好！先来看看重要资讯。 据央视报道，当地时间8月13日，美国总统特朗普表示，如果15日与俄罗斯总统普京的会晤顺利，那么 将很快举行第二次会晤。 特朗普表示，第二次会晤将有乌克兰总统泽连斯基参加。 特朗普还表示，如果不停止冲突，俄罗斯将面临后果。 国际能源署：今明两年全球石油供应增速远超需求 据新华社报道，国际能源署13日发布报告，预计2025年和2026年全球石油供应增速将远超需求增速，可 能导致市场进一步失衡。 报告说，由于欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的8个主要产油国决定9月再度增产，预计2025年全球石油供应 量增速为日均250万桶，较上月估值增加日均37万桶，2026年增速为日均190万桶，较上月估值增加日均 62万桶。 国际能源署预计，2025年全球石油需求增速为日均68万桶，较上月估值下调日均2万桶，2026年增速为 日均70万桶。报告还显示，自今年年初以来，全年全球石油需求增长预测一再被下调，总计下调日均35 万桶。 美国纽约股市三大股指13日上涨 纽约股市三大股指13日上涨。截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨463.66点，收于 44922.27点，涨幅为1.04%；标准普尔500 ...

一、证监会周末休市前发行新股，所以8月交易第一周，本周三大指数均呈反弹趋势，尤其是沪指反弹力度较大再次回到3600点之上。创业板指数表现稍 弱，但周线仍然收红。本周沪指涨2.11%，深成指涨1.25%，创业板涨0.49%。 多家头部券商也陆续发布研报，对于8月市场走势基本达成一致看法，震荡成为咱们的共识关键词。普遍预期8月将面临阶段性震荡整固，但我一致认为，市 场慢牛基础未变，调整后有望重拾升势，甚至挑战新高。在我看来，市场目前的这个位置大概率会适当的消化和交换筹码，继而为后市继续攀升积蓄新的能 量。 二、A股三大指数今日小幅回调，截止收盘，沪指跌0.12%，调整简直就像给股民浇了一盆冷水！ 当前市场情绪可能更加偏保守一些，尤其是现在大盘指数距离3674点也很近了，向上进一步反弹势必会有抛压，尽管说这段时间其实已经消化了一些抛压盘 和获利盘。 但真当大盘指数突破3674点的时候，还是阻力比较大的。大家可以想象一下，本身就是30个点左右的幅度，如果说大金融今天发力直接去拉升指数的话，相 信是可以一步到位突破的，但为什么又压制节奏了？ 三、A股三大指数没有大幅下跌，并不代表板块不会深度回调。 前期非常强势的银行板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in early August, followed by a potential upward trend and new highs in late August [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In mid-August, the market is likely to show a pattern of volatility after a significant prior increase, coinciding with the earnings disclosure period [1] - The latter part of August may see a return to an upward trend as earnings reports conclude, leading to a phase of performance vacuum [1] Group 2: Earnings and Cash Flow - The overall performance of listed companies is mixed, with some stocks facing adjustment pressure before earnings disclosures [1] - The half-year reports are expected to confirm improvements in overall free cash flow for listed companies, reinforcing the rationale for re-evaluating A-shares [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is currently positioned above a critical resistance level for turning losses into profits, with accumulating profit effects [1] - Continuous inflow of external incremental capital is anticipated, supporting the likelihood of A-shares achieving new highs in August after an initial decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points has injected confidence into the A-share market, opening up upward potential towards previous highs and optimistic targets [1][3] Technical Analysis - The next key resistance level is identified in the range of 3600-3674 points, which holds significant technical and psychological importance due to its status as a previous high during the "924" rally [3] - A sustained breakthrough above 3500 points, especially with a confirmation pullback, could attract trend traders and direct attention towards the next significant high of 3674 points [3][4] - The market may experience fluctuations and corrections above 3500 points, which is a common occurrence during such upward movements [6] Fundamental Factors - Positive mid-term factors supporting the challenge of previous highs include ongoing domestic economic recovery and a sustained loose fiscal and monetary policy to bolster this recovery [4] - Key economic indicators such as the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index showed improvements, indicating a general expansion in economic activity [4] - Anticipated liquidity resonance in the second half of the year, particularly with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, could further enhance domestic monetary policy space [4] Market Sentiment and Risks - The path to challenge previous highs may not be smooth, with potential for significant selling pressure as the index approaches historical resistance levels [7] - Concerns regarding the strength and sustainability of the economic recovery persist, with monthly economic data potentially causing fluctuations in market sentiment [7] - External uncertainties, such as persistent inflation in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions, could negatively impact global risk appetite and, consequently, the A-share market [8] Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - The immediate target post-3500 points is 3674 points, which is seen as a feasible technical goal supported by market trends and policy backing [8] - Achieving the more challenging target of 4000 points will require stronger economic recovery, more substantial policy support, and favorable external conditions [9]

| 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3451.69 | 7.27 | 0.21% | 26555 | 2.98% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 10431.98 | -33.14 | -0.32% | 6047亿 | 0.17% | | 899050 | 北证50 | 1450.28 | 3.10 | 0.21% | 208亿 | 39.74% | | 881001 | 万得全A | 5308.68 | -6.19 | -0.12% | 9813亿 | 5.71% | | 000688 | 20 | 995.06 | -8.36 | -0.83% | 189亿 | 0.62% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 2140.47 | -12.55 | -0.58% | 3003亿 | -0.05% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | 3937.85 | 1.77 | 0.05% | 1456亿 | 0.07% | | 000 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese capital market is expected to show a "stable index, structural bull" trend in the second half of the year, indicating significant potential for A-shares [2] - Long-term funds are anticipated to become an important incremental capital source for the market, suggesting a structural bull market for A-shares [2][3] - The capital market is projected to exhibit a "dual bull" trend in stocks and bonds by the second half of 2025 [3] Group 2 - The stock market is expected to respond more quickly to policy easing, potentially leading to an upward turning point among major asset classes [3] - A-shares may experience a volatile trend due to a combination of declining profits and credit conditions in the second half of the year [4] - The profit bottom for A-shares may not arrive until at least the third quarter, indicating weakening elasticity in the profit cycle [5] Group 3 - Key sectors attracting institutional interest include banking, which offers safety and yield certainty amid external uncertainties and low interest rates [6] - The new consumption sector is seen as a growth area, driven by changing consumption concepts among Generation Z [7] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to see significant licensing opportunities in 2025, with potential catalysts for market performance in the second half of the year [7] Group 4 - The technology sector, having adjusted valuations to reasonable levels, may present new investment opportunities in the second half of the year [7] - The smart driving sector is poised for growth, with new vehicle launches focusing on intelligence and currently low valuations of related companies [7] - The new energy vehicle sector typically experiences two market cycles: the first driven by expectations and the second by actual performance [8] Group 5 - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a phase of volatility followed by an upward trend in the second half of the year [9] - The market is expected to continue a pattern of oscillation and gradual ascent [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing downward pressure, with multiple signals indicating a potential decline, including prolonged high-level trading and low-volume rebounds [1] - The financial sector's ability to support the market is diminishing, with traditional giants like oil and coal taking over the role of market leaders, raising concerns about their effectiveness [2][5] - The white wine and automotive industries are facing challenges due to imbalanced production capacity, which is a core issue affecting these sectors [3] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical sector, including CROs and innovative drugs, has seen significant declines, indicating a downturn for previously popular stocks in this industry [4] - There is uncertainty regarding which sectors will lead the market recovery, with traditional weight sectors being questioned for their strength [5]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with all three major indices closing in the green, driven by significant gains in new consumption concept stocks, IP economy, beauty, and sports sectors [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.1414 trillion, an increase of 22 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,400 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The new consumption sector saw a strong increase, particularly with the IP economy concept stocks gaining traction. The Labubu brand's overseas performance exceeded expectations, and the opening of the first popop store in Shanghai on May 30 further boosted interest [2] - The sports concept stocks performed well, with the Jiangsu Province city football league gaining popularity and driving cultural tourism consumption [2] - The innovative drug sector maintained its strength, influenced by a correction in the Hong Kong market and significant announcements from multinational pharmaceutical companies, including a licensing agreement worth up to 11.1 billion USD for a new cancer drug [2] Banking Sector - Bank stocks showed renewed strength, supported by the trend of dividend stocks and adjustments to major indices by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index, which may lead to capital inflows [3] - Insurance capital continues to show interest in bank stocks, maintaining market momentum [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the fluctuation in the A-share market, which showed initial concerns but eventually led to a rise, influenced by the performance of Hong Kong stocks and the Chinese concept stocks index [1][2] - The market's rise was attributed to a mix of external factors, including concerns over increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, and positive expectations from potential communications, which created a favorable atmosphere [2] - The brokerage sector played a significant role in driving market sentiment, with a notable increase in small and medium-sized banks, which positively impacted the brokerage stocks [2][3] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a transitional phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a positive trend but not yet breaking recent highs, indicating a cautious optimism [4] - The weekly MACD technical indicators for the Shanghai Composite Index are showing signs of a potential bullish crossover, suggesting a stronger upward trend may be forming [5] - The overall sentiment towards the A-share market remains optimistic, particularly if the brokerage sector can catch up and attract more investment [4][5]