每日经济新闻消息，12月8日，乘联分会发布的数据显示，11月国内乘用车销量同比下滑8.1%，环比下降1.1%， 符合"前低中高后平"走势，"以旧换新"政策调节效果明显。新能源车市场表现突出，月销破万车企达22家，零售 渗透率逼近60%。乘联分会预测2025年车市或超预期增长，但2026年因购置税政策调整，车市增长将面临压力， 建议减免政策惠及首购群体和小微型电动车。 与往年年底车市翘尾走势不同的是，今年11月国内乘用车市场销量同比出现下滑。 12月8日，乘联分会公布的最新数据显示，11月，全国乘用车市场零售销量约222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下 降1.1%；今年以来累计零售销量约2148.3万辆，同比增长6.1%。 "11月乘用车市场销量环比出现下降，是比较少见的。"乘联分会秘书长崔东树认为，今年上半年，我国乘用车市 场销量实现了13%的较快增长，下半年车市增长需要回到合理、稳定的状态。 复盘来看，今年国内乘用车市场零售累计增速从1~2月增长1.2%，3~6月增长15%，7~9月增速徘徊在6%左右， 10~11月回落到偏低状态，呈现四季度高基数的减速特征，基本符合乘联分会在今年年初所判断的"前低中高后 ...

Core Insights - In November, the domestic passenger car market in China experienced a year-on-year decline in sales, contrasting with the typical year-end surge seen in previous years [1] - The total retail sales for the year reached approximately 21.48 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - November retail sales of passenger cars were about 2.225 million units, down 8.1% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month [1] - The cumulative growth rate for retail sales fluctuated throughout the year, with a notable increase of 13% in the first half, followed by a slowdown in the latter half [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has been a significant factor in adjusting market growth, with over 11.2 million applications for subsidies by October 22 [3] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - In November, the number of manufacturers with monthly wholesale sales of NEVs exceeding 10,000 units rose to 22, accounting for 94.2% of total NEV sales [4] - NEV sales reached 1.321 million units in November, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with a penetration rate of 59.3% in the overall passenger car market [4] - The penetration rate for NEVs among domestic brands was 79.6%, while luxury brands and mainstream joint ventures had rates of 38.8% and 8%, respectively [4] Group 3: Export Trends - In November, NEV exports reached 284,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 243.3%, representing 47.3% of the total export market [7] - The export of pure electric vehicles accounted for 57% of NEV exports, while plug-in hybrid models made up 42% [7] - The export of complete vehicles has also driven growth in battery exports, with a total of 7.039 million kWh of electricity used for NEV exports and wholesale in November [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize in December, with potential for slight negative growth due to current market conditions [10] - Predictions for 2025 indicate that the "old-for-new" subsidy program could exceed 180 billion yuan, with a 10% tax exemption for NEVs expected to boost sales [10] - However, the transition to a reduced tax rate in 2026 may pose significant challenges for market growth, with a projected loss of over 100 billion yuan in tax incentives [10]