行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 汽车购置税将减半征收，中汽协提议，明年应持续优化汽车"以旧换新"政 策，以稳定市场预期。 请阅读正文后的声明 - 3 - 镍观点： 宏观情绪有所缓解，19 日沪镍暂止跌企稳运行，主力 2601 小幅高开后震荡 运行，收盘报 115830，较上日上涨 0.29%。金川镍平均升水较上日涨 50 报 4100， 国产电积镍升水报 0-400。8-12%高镍生铁仍未止住跌势，均价下跌 2.5 至 897 元 /镍点，电池级硫酸镍均价较上日下跌 ...

一搜 微信搜 Q 蓝色柳林财税室 技术产品 别只盯着奶金花呗 这份"隐藏"福利快收好! 国务院今年印发的《推动大规模设备 更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》，让 "汽车以旧换新"成为热议焦点。在大家 普遍关注现金补贴的同时,一项能够省钱 的"隐藏"福利 -- 车船税优惠,却容易 被忽略。那么,这项优惠具体体现在哪些 方面?享受优惠要注意哪些方面呢?一图 带你看懂! ◎浙江雅多 购置新车有优惠 对节能汽车 减半征收车船税 0| 减半征收车船税的节能乘用车应同时符 合以下标准: 欢迎扫描下方二维码关注: 2.综合工况燃料消耗量应符合标准。 02 减半征收车船税的节能商用车应同时符 合以下标准: 1.获得许可在中国境内销售的燃用天然 气、汽油、柴油的轻型和重型商用车(含非插 电式混合动力、双燃料和两用燃料轻型和重型 商用车); 2.燃用汽油、柴油的轻型和重型商用车综 合工况燃料消耗量应符合标准。 政策依据 1.《中华人民共和国工业和信息化部 财政部 税 务总局关于调整享受车船税优惠的节能 新能源汽车 产品技术要求的公告》（中华人民共和国工业和信 息化部 财政部 税务总局公告2024年第10号）附件 1、2、3 2 .《 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping varied in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling and stabilized this week, while natural rubber oscillated strongly to repair some previous losses. The domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is still needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. The production of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with obvious inventory pressure in factories, suppressing price elasticity. Downstream tire demand is weakening, and the overall tire production utilization rate is weakly stable. Overall, natural rubber will mainly oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [6][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary - From November 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia changed, affecting rubber tapping differently in different regions. The synthetic rubber market stopped falling, and natural rubber oscillated strongly. In October, the domestic economic growth slowed down, and policy support is needed. Natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up. The production of butadiene rubber is high, and downstream tire demand is weakening. The market lacks prominent contradictions, and natural rubber will oscillate, while synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend [5][6] - In October, the sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for 51.6% of the total new vehicle sales, with production and sales increasing year - on - year. The retail sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year, and the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [7] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Natural rubber has no obvious inventory pressure and its raw material prices are supported. Bearish factors: The domestic economic data growth slowed down in October [10] Data Analysis - Economic data: In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year [15] - Natural rubber raw material prices: As of November 13, the prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic regions were at certain levels. The raw material prices were firm due to the approaching off - season in Yunnan and rain in overseas areas [16] - Natural rubber inventory: As of the week of November 7, 2025, the overall natural rubber inventory continued to build up slightly. The inventory in bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased, while that in general trade warehouses increased [20] - Butadiene rubber raw material and profit: The price of butadiene has stabilized recently, and the production profit of butadiene rubber has declined. As of the week of November 14, the theoretical production profit was 606.8571 yuan/ton, down 105.71 yuan/ton from last week [21] - Butadiene rubber inventory: As of the week of November 14, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [23] - Tire production utilization rate: As of the week of November 14, the production utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. The inventory days of both increased [24] - Rubber contract price difference: As of November 13, the "RU - NR" January contract price difference oscillated narrowly, and the "NR - BR" main contract price difference was strong [26] 后市研判 - Macroscopically, the domestic economic growth slowed down in October, and policy support is needed. Fundamentally, natural rubber has cost - side support, with a slight inventory build - up and no obvious inventory pressure. Butadiene rubber has high inventory pressure, and downstream tire demand is weakening. Overall, natural rubber will oscillate, and synthetic rubber will have a weak price trend. Attention should be paid to the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [30]

Core Insights - The automotive circulation industry is undergoing significant transformation due to changes in product structure, competition, and distribution models, prompting discussions on how to stabilize and optimize the circulation system [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October 22, 2023, the number of applications for the 2025 vehicle trade-in subsidy has exceeded 10 million, with over 3.4 million vehicles scrapped and more than 6.6 million vehicles replaced [1] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles have been continuously growing this year, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching new highs, supported by national consumption promotion policies [1] Group 2: Dealer Challenges - Despite positive market changes, dealers face ongoing challenges, including a general contraction of dealer networks and declining business revenues, with cash flow pressures due to delayed sales rebates [1][2] - The call for improved governance in the circulation sector and the restructuring of manufacturer-dealer relationships emphasizes the need for reasonable inventory levels and timely rebate payments to alleviate dealer survival anxieties [2] Group 3: Second-hand Vehicle Market - The existing vehicle ownership of 360 million provides a strong foundation for the expansion of the second-hand vehicle market, with improving policies and increasing transparency enhancing the operating environment [2] - Experts advocate for addressing bottlenecks in second-hand vehicle circulation and fostering professional, brand-oriented business entities to improve trust and service quality [2] Group 4: Future Directions - The automotive circulation industry is encouraged to lead new supply with new demand and to innovate in service offerings, transforming challenges into opportunities [2] - The industry association plans to collaborate with enterprises to reshape channel value, leverage technological innovations, and enhance the service capabilities throughout the vehicle lifecycle [2][3] - Establishing a more pragmatic and efficient brand authorization cooperation model is essential for fostering a healthy and orderly development of the automotive industry [3]

Core Insights - The new round of the vehicle trade-in policy aims to stimulate consumer demand in the automotive industry by providing higher subsidies and faster processing times [1][4][6] Subsidy Details - The subsidy standards have doubled compared to the first round released in April, with new subsidies set at 20,000 yuan for purchasing new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles [2][11] - The policy also allows for retroactive subsidies for eligible applications submitted between April 24 and January 10 of the following year, ensuring that previous applicants can receive the updated subsidy amounts [6][11] Market Impact - Industry experts believe that the new policy will provide strong support for the automotive market in the second half of the year, particularly boosting the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market [4][11] - The policy is expected to significantly increase the number of vehicle trade-ins, with estimates suggesting it could drive an additional 1 million vehicle updates nationwide [11] Consumer Behavior - There has been a noticeable increase in customer inquiries at dealerships, with reports indicating a 30% rise in foot traffic due to the new trade-in policy [7][10] - Consumers are particularly interested in understanding which vehicle types qualify for subsidies and the process for trade-ins [12] Regional Initiatives - In addition to national policies, local governments, such as Shanghai, are implementing their own subsidies, offering an additional 10,000 yuan for personal users purchasing electric vehicles [9] Industry Response - Automakers are enhancing their trade-in incentives, with companies like Buick and BYD offering additional subsidies on top of government incentives [10] - The automotive industry is adapting to the new policy by training staff to assist customers with the trade-in process and ensuring a smoother experience [10] Recycling and Sustainability - The policy is expected to enhance the recycling market for old vehicles, promoting the recovery of materials like steel, rubber, and lithium batteries, which aligns with environmental sustainability goals [12]

Core Insights - The domestic automotive industry in China has seen positive effects from the vehicle trade-in policy this year, with expectations of high single-digit growth, surpassing initial market and official forecasts [1] - The necessity to further stimulate vehicle sales in the fourth quarter is reduced due to stable cross-year growth [1] - Although there may be disruptions in early next year due to subsidy reductions, flexible adjustments to trade-in policies can still support growth in the automotive sector [1] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including XPeng Motors (09868), Geely Automobile (00175), Minth Group (00425), BYD Company (01211), and Li Auto (02015) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting the benefits of sustained growth and scale effects in the sector [1]. Core Views - The automotive industry has shown resilience with a continuous two-digit growth in sales for three consecutive quarters, driven by policy support and the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement program [11]. - The report indicates that while price competition remains significant in the passenger car segment, there are signs of improvement in margins, reflecting a reversal of the previous "involution" trend [8]. - The report emphasizes the growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, with a penetration rate exceeding 52% and a year-on-year increase in sales [14]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive sector consists of 258 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 5.09 trillion yuan, accounting for 4.2% of the total A-share market [8]. - In Q3 2025, total automotive wholesale sales reached 8.68 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% [11]. Passenger Vehicles - In Q3 2025, passenger vehicle sales reached 7.69 million units, up 15% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [16]. - Revenue for passenger vehicle manufacturers (excluding SAIC) was 380.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [46]. - The gross margin for passenger vehicle manufacturers (excluding SAIC) was 17.4%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [51]. Auto Parts - The auto parts sector experienced a revenue growth of 11% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, benefiting from the continuous growth of scale effects [4]. - The gross margin for the auto parts sector was 19.5%, showing a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [42]. Commercial Vehicles - Commercial vehicle sales in Q3 2025 totaled 990,000 units, marking a 20% year-on-year increase [16]. - The report notes that the profitability of both buses and trucks has increased year-on-year [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-risk, high-reward areas for investment opportunities in Q4, particularly in passenger vehicles and heavy trucks [4]. - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, BYD, and Jianghuai Automobile for passenger vehicles, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power for heavy trucks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth of the used car market in China, driven by policies promoting vehicle replacement and the increasing volume of second-hand electric vehicles entering the market through auction formats [3][4]. Used Car Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative transaction of used cars in China reached 9.57 million units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2%, with a total transaction value exceeding 600 billion yuan [3]. - The auction format is becoming increasingly popular for disposing of used cars, particularly for electric vehicles, which are often sold in bulk [3][4]. Auction Market Dynamics - In 2024, traditional fuel vehicles accounted for over 1.11 million auction transactions, representing more than 90% of the market share, while the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles is also rising [3][4]. - The auction volume of accident vehicles has been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 27% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 530,000 units in 2024 [6]. Electric Vehicle Auction Trends - The auction volume of electric vehicle accident cars has a compound growth rate of 70% from 2019 to 2024, with projections indicating that this will exceed 50% in the next three years [4][6]. - The number of electric accident vehicles auctioned increased from 2,300 units in 2020 to 18,000 units in 2024 [6]. Pricing Trends in Used Car Auctions - The average auction price for used vehicles in 2024 was 40,000 yuan per vehicle, reflecting a year-on-year decline of over 11% [9]. - The market is seeing a polarization in pricing, with vehicles priced below 50,000 yuan accounting for 78.86% of total transactions, while vehicles priced at 200,000 yuan and above have decreased to 2.42% of the market share [9][10]. Age and Condition of Vehicles - The share of vehicles aged over six years has increased, with over 70% of transactions involving older vehicles, contributing to the overall decline in average prices [9]. - The average auction price for vehicles aged 10 years or more dropped to 21,400 yuan, indicating a trend towards older vehicles in the market [9][10]. Future Outlook - As the demand for used electric vehicles increases, the auction methods are expected to evolve, potentially moving from bulk sales to individual sales depending on vehicle conditions [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate shows a strong basis and is in a moderately bullish oscillating trend [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased, with the 2511 contract closing at 81,120 yuan and the 2601 contract at 81,900 yuan. The trading volume of the 2511 contract decreased, while that of the 2601 contract increased. The open interest of the 2511 contract decreased, and that of the 2601 contract increased [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was -4,570 yuan, and between spot and 2601 contract was -5,350 yuan. The basis between 2511 and 2601 contracts was -780 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased, reaching 906 yuan and 1,990 yuan respectively [1] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) all increased. For example, battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 76,550 yuan [1] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of various downstream products such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased to 97,500 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 76,595 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,193 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 76,550 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 74,300 yuan/ton, both increasing by 1,150 yuan/ton [2] - As of October 22, 2025, the number of applications for automobile trade - in subsidies exceeded 10 million, with over 3.4 million for scrapping and over 6.6 million for replacement. New energy vehicles accounted for 57.2% in the 2025 automobile trade - in, driving a 24.4% year - on - year increase in new energy passenger vehicle retail sales from January to September, with a market penetration rate of 52.1% (57.8% in September) [3] - In the first three quarters of this year, the number of scrapped automobile recoveries was 7.345 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. It is estimated that about 7.1 million tons of steel, 0.92 million tons of aluminum, and 0.93 million tons of plastic can be recycled, promoting a carbon reduction of over 21 million tons [3]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is actively implementing cash subsidy programs to attract orders as the deadline for the half-reduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax approaches, with various companies offering solutions to mitigate tax impacts for consumers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - Deep Blue Automotive has launched a "cross-year delivery purchase tax cash subsidy plan" to support consumers who lock in orders before the end of the year [1]. - NIO introduced a similar "lock order" plan for its new ES8 model, offering a purchase tax difference subsidy coupon for orders locked by December 31, 2023, which can offset up to 15,000 yuan of the vehicle price [3]. - Other companies like Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Zeekr have also rolled out related subsidy programs, with Li Auto providing cash reductions on the final payment to cover tax differences [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Background - The actions of these companies are influenced by a recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which states that new energy vehicles purchased between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2025, will be exempt from purchase tax, while those purchased between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2027, will have a 50% tax reduction [4]. - The maximum tax reduction per vehicle during the half-reduction period is capped at 15,000 yuan, with the current purchase tax calculation formula being 10% of the invoice price divided by 1.13 [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The delivery times for vehicles are extending, prompting companies to offer subsidies to ensure consumers are not burdened by increased tax liabilities due to delayed deliveries [5][6]. - The automotive market is entering a peak sales period as companies aim to boost sales before year-end, with a reported 35.4% increase in customer engagement in early October compared to September [7]. - The implementation of policies such as the vehicle trade-in program and the impending expiration of the purchase tax exemption are expected to significantly enhance consumer purchasing intentions [7].