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几内亚Axis矿区停产,氧化铝强劲反弹
China Securities· 2025-05-18 15:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Insights - The Guinea Axis mine has been shut down due to the revocation of mining licenses by the government, leading to a strong rebound in alumina prices. If the mine does not resume production this year, a global increase of approximately 20 million tons is still expected, which is sufficient to meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum [1][3]. - The high concentration of ore in certain regions may lead to price volatility, making companies with high ore security more attractive to investors [5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Guinea Axis Mine Shutdown - The Guinea transitional government has revoked mining licenses for several companies, including 11 bauxite mining companies, with the Axis mine being the only one maintaining normal production. The shutdown is seen as a government move to reclaim mining rights and adjust profit-sharing terms, which has led to a direct market reversal [3][4]. Section 2: Global Supply and Demand Analysis - The Axis mine was expected to produce 23.2 million tons in 2024 and 38-40 million tons in 2025. If it remains closed, there will be a reduction of about 8 million tons in supply. However, other companies are expected to increase production, leading to a net increase of approximately 1.44 million tons of alumina [4]. - The overall alumina supply situation remains in surplus, with a projected excess of 530,000 tons after accounting for various production increases and decreases [4]. Section 3: Price Assessment - The report suggests that if the Axis mine does not return to production, the price of bauxite may stabilize around $75 per ton. If it resumes quickly, the price may test $70 per ton. This price range corresponds to the complete cost for high-cost domestic regions [5]. Section 4: Industrial Metals Overview - Industrial metals prices have shown mixed movements, with copper prices increasing by 0.02%, aluminum by 2.6%, lead by 0.9%, zinc by 1.4%, and tin by 2.9% [2][10]. The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to improve due to the recovery of the Chinese economy and the growth of the new energy sector [2].