Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. achieved record-breaking performance with operating revenue of 206.68 billion yuan and net profit of 20.34 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 50.30% [1][3] Financial Performance - The company maintained operating revenue above 200 billion yuan for two consecutive years, with a total asset value surpassing 200 billion yuan, reaching 200.93 billion yuan [1] - The mining business revenue increased by 19% year-on-year, indicating strong internal growth potential [1][3] - The copper segment was a key driver of growth, with revenue of 55.10 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of total revenue and 71% of mining revenue [3] Profitability Structure - Despite a slight decline in overall revenue by 2.98%, net profit surged by 50.30%, reflecting a complete restructuring of profitability [3] - The copper business achieved a revenue increase of 31.63% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 4.9 percentage points to 55.16% [3] - The company set a record in copper production at 741,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, ranking eighth among global copper producers [3] Cost Management - Operating costs decreased significantly by 11.56% to 157.23 billion yuan, outpacing the revenue decline [5] - Financial expenses dropped by 82.19%, from 2.88 billion yuan to 513 million yuan, primarily due to reduced borrowing costs and increased foreign exchange gains [5] Cash Flow Dynamics - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 35.64% to 115.44 billion yuan, indicating a divergence from net profit [6] - Inventory levels rose by 35.89% to 40.60 billion yuan, impacting cash flow due to increased trade guarantees [6] Strategic Expansion - In 2025, the company completed two significant gold mine acquisitions, establishing a new gold business segment [7] - The strategic shift towards gold and other metals is part of a broader diversification strategy, with a focus on expanding the product matrix [8] - The company plans to issue $1.2 billion in convertible bonds to optimize capital structure and support expansion efforts [8] Market Positioning - The company is adapting to a changing global mining landscape, characterized by supply constraints and rising metal prices [8] - The focus on small metals and the integration of copper-gold strategies will enhance profitability and operational efficiency [9]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) reported a revenue of 206.684 billion RMB for the year ending December 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.98% while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 50.3% to 20.339 billion RMB, with basic earnings per share at 0.95 RMB [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the fiscal year was 206.684 billion RMB, showing a decline of 2.98% compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 20.339 billion RMB, marking a significant increase of 50.3% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.95 RMB [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 349.08 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.78 billion yuan, up 61.55% year-on-year [3][17] - The company is focusing on both organic growth and acquisitions to enhance its gold mining assets, with significant projects underway to increase production capacity in strategic metals like lithium and molybdenum [6][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 94.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.54%, and a net profit of 13.91 billion yuan, up 80.86% year-on-year [3][17] - The company’s gold revenue reached 64.68 billion yuan in 2025, a substantial increase of 83.25% year-on-year, while copper revenue was 57.83 billion yuan, up 20.06% year-on-year [5][23] - The average selling price for gold was 778 yuan per gram, an increase of 49.4% year-on-year, while copper averaged 65,000 yuan per ton, up 11.8% year-on-year [5][46] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company plans to produce 2.55 million tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, with a target capacity of 270,000 to 320,000 tons by 2028, positioning itself as a major global lithium producer [8][58] - The company’s molybdenum production is expected to reach 11,500 tons in 2025, with plans to increase this to 25,000 to 35,000 tons by 2028 [8][58] Strategic Acquisitions - The company has acquired 100% of Canadian United Gold for approximately 28 billion yuan, which is expected to significantly boost its gold production from 11.1 tons in 2024 to 25 tons by 2029 [7][51] - The company has also become the largest shareholder of Chifeng Gold, enhancing its resource base and potential for future growth [7][55] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2026 to 2028 are 72.28 billion yuan, 88.17 billion yuan, and 107.70 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.04, 9.87, and 8.08 [9][61]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyin International has raised the target price for Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) by 10.6%, from HKD 16.96 to HKD 18.76, and upgraded the rating from "Hold" to "Buy" [1] Financial Projections - The core earnings per share forecast for 2026-2027 has been increased by 7-9% [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum's profit is expected to increase by 50% year-on-year in 2025, reaching RMB 20.3 billion, aligning with the firm's predictions after accounting for unexpected hedging losses [1] - Earnings for 2026 are projected to rise by 71%, driven by increases in copper production, copper prices, tungsten prices, and contributions from newly acquired gold assets [1] Market Performance - The stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum has shown renewed attractiveness after a decline of 34% over the past four weeks [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [8][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.8 billion yuan in 2025, with total operating revenue reaching 349.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [4]. - The production of copper and gold has increased significantly, with copper production exceeding 1 million tons and gold production reaching 90 tons in 2025, supported by high prices for these metals [5]. - The company plans to acquire Chifeng Gold, enhancing its position in the gold sector, with the acquisition expected to increase its shareholding to approximately 25.85% post-transaction [7]. - Profit forecasts for 2026-2028 suggest continued growth, with expected net profits of 77.8 billion yuan, 88.4 billion yuan, and 91.3 billion yuan respectively, translating to year-on-year growth rates of 50%, 14%, and 3% [8]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported a total profit of 80.8 billion yuan, a 68% increase year-on-year, and operating cash flow of 75.4 billion yuan, up 54% from the previous year [4]. - The company's unit sales costs for gold and copper have increased slightly, attributed to factors such as declining ore grades and rising operational costs, but are expected to stabilize as production improves [6]. - The company's financial metrics indicate a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.81, with projections for the next three years showing a decrease in P/E to 11.21, 9.86, and 9.55 respectively [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Tin: Volatility [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the macro - face expectations dominate the price trend of tin and the overall metal sector. Due to the continuous fermentation of the US - Iran conflict and high - incidence of black - swan events, the fundamentals take a back seat. With the supply becoming looser and demand remaining low, the negative factors in the fundamentals are being released. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of (340,000, 370,000) in the second quarter [3][86] - In the long - term, there is an expected contraction in tin ingot supply policy in Indonesia, and geopolitical disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar. The high concentration and vulnerability of global tin ore supply are hard to disprove. Reverse globalization and resource nationalism are expected to bring supply constraints and strategic premiums. On the demand side, intelligentization and electrification are expected to be the core drivers of long - term demand growth [86] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In Q1 2026, tin prices showed two冲高 -回落 trends. The first peak was from January 26th to 29th, a collective rise with gold, silver, copper, and aluminum under the background of interest - rate cut expectations and a weakening US dollar, followed by a market shift and profit - taking. The second peak was in the first week after the Spring Festival, driven by supply loss news from major producing countries and the long - term global tight - balance pattern. However, the high price lacked support as most downstream enterprises had not resumed production, and then the market was suppressed by macro headwinds and looser supply [10] 3.2. Supply Side 3.2.1. Mine End - Since 2026, domestic tin ore processing fees have been raised twice, each time by 2,000 yuan/ton, breaking the low - level pattern that lasted for half a year. The supply of tin ore is expected to be looser, but the actual progress of supply restoration is slow. In 2026, domestic tin ore supply is expected to be 7.50 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [13][14] - The restoration of overseas tin ore supply is crucial for the realization of the looser supply expectation. In January - February 2026, the cumulative imported tin ore in China was 34,800 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 87.3%, equivalent to 11,100 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.0%. From a month - on - month perspective, the increase in imports was less than expected [14] - In Myanmar, the tin ore production is expected to increase, but the probability of the pessimistic - neutral scenario (monthly average of 1,500 - 1,750 metal tons) is higher due to factors such as declining mine grade, rising mining costs, and slow复产 progress. There may also be disturbances from government stockpiling and geopolitical conflicts [26] - In Congo (Kinshasa), the tin ore imports from January - February were 5,036 tons, equivalent to 2,743 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 22.6%. Alphamin's production is expected to reach 20,000 tons in 2026, but there are still geopolitical risks [27][28] - Globally, the tin ore supply in 2026 is expected to increase by 8.0% year - on - year to 306,300 metal tons, an increase of 22,400 tons compared to the previous year [32] 3.2.2. Smelting End - In January - February 2026, the domestic tin ingot production was 26,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%. The average smelting start - up rate was low, at 62.7% and 47.7% in January and February respectively. The smelting gross profit margin is showing a recovery trend and may get out of the loss by the end of the second quarter [32] - In January - February, tin ingot imports were 3,259 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22%, and exports were 2,819 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37%, with a cumulative net import of 440 tons, and the import window has gradually opened [33] - Indonesia's tin ingot exports have been stable since mid - January. The RKAB production quota for 2026 is expected to be 65,860 tons, an increase from the previous expectation of 60,000 tons. Globally, the tin ingot supply is expected to increase to 374,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% or 17,000 tons [45] 3.3. Demand Side - In January - February 2026, the domestic apparent tin demand was 22,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.1%. Downstream enterprises' procurement was cautious, mainly for rigid demand, but there was replenishment elasticity when prices fell [48] 3.3.1. Initial - stage Demand - In January - February, the production of domestic tin solder sample enterprises was 10,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%. The start - up rate was low, and the inventory cycle of solder enterprises has been decreasing. Considering the limited space for further destocking, passive replenishment is likely to be triggered, which has a certain support for tin prices [55] 3.3.2. Terminal Demand - Traditional consumer electronics demand has fallen short of expectations. For example, the domestic mobile phone shipments from January - February decreased by 15.5% year - on - year. The global smartphone and PC shipments are expected to decline in 2026. However, the intelligent glasses market is expected to grow rapidly. AI technology is promoting the development of new terminal devices [62][63] - The home appliance industry shows a weak recovery. The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in January - February had different growth rates. The terminal demand is still weak, mainly due to reduced subsidies and high raw material costs [68] - In the automotive field, the domestic market is weak, while exports continue to be strong. The production and domestic sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles from January - February decreased year - on - year, but exports increased significantly [72] - The photovoltaic sector has weak demand. The production and start - up rate of photovoltaic modules in January - February were low, and the recovery in March was limited. If energy prices remain high, it may boost photovoltaic demand [75] - Other fields have fluctuating demand, and the impact on tin demand is limited. There may be a situation where float glass affects the supply through tin - removing liquid [77] 3.4. Inventory Side - The recent decline in tin prices has led to active replenishment by downstream enterprises, and the domestic inventory level has decreased rapidly. As of March 27th, the SHFE inventory was 8,400 tons, and the domestic social inventory was 9,102 tons. On March 30th, the LME tin inventory was 8,665 tons. The current global visible inventory is about 17,000 tons [83]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.724 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.00%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 542 million yuan, up 13.69% year-on-year [4] - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 544 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 196 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54.33% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 110.75% [4] - Zinc and lead concentrate production for 2025 was 71,800 tons and 22,500 tons, respectively, marking increases of 16.61% and 8.90% year-on-year [4] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenues of 2.034 billion yuan, 2.462 billion yuan, and 2.766 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.00%, 21.03%, and 12.34% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 689 million yuan, 834 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 27.12%, 20.97%, and 19.91% [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.70 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 1.02 yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [6] Production and Expansion - The company is actively promoting resource expansion and production increase, with the new 1.5 million tons/year flotation plant at Xiejiaogou having completed trial operations [6] - The acquisition of the remaining 51% stake in Gansu Haosen Mining Co., Ltd. has been completed, and the integration of the Jianglu mining area is fully accomplished [6] - High-grade ore bodies have been discovered in the Dongpo lead-zinc mine, with lead grades ranging from 0.80% to 38.86% and silver grades from 2 g/t to 309 g/t [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in aluminum and lithium due to supply disruptions caused by Middle Eastern conflicts [4]. Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with a notable increase in aluminum and lithium prices driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions [4][6]. - The report highlights the potential for gold prices to rise in the long term due to increased geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, suggesting it as a favorable investment opportunity [4]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in the supply gap for electrolytic aluminum, which may drive prices higher [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Market Review - As of March 28, the SW Non-Ferrous Metals Index increased by 2.78%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, which decreased by 1.09% and 1.41% respectively [6][7]. - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 3.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index have decreased by 1.39% and 2.75% respectively [6]. 2. Non-Ferrous Metals Price Review (a) Base Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin have shown increases of 1.62%, 0.21%, 2.48%, 1.13%, 3.01%, and 5.37% respectively compared to the previous week [17][18]. - The report provides specific price points for these metals, with copper at 95,930 CNY/ton and aluminum at 23,935 CNY/ton [17]. (b) Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have decreased by 3.17% and increased by 0.23% respectively, with gold priced at 998.66 CNY/gram [46][47]. - The report notes a significant drop in gold prices due to market liquidity adjustments amid geopolitical tensions [4]. (c) Rare and Minor Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have increased by 8.47% for battery-grade and 7.96% for industrial-grade, with current prices at 160,000 CNY/ton and 156,000 CNY/ton respectively [57][59]. - The report indicates that supply disruptions from Zimbabwe and Australia may further impact lithium prices positively [4]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Barrick Mining has postponed the development of the Reko Diq copper project due to safety concerns in the Middle East, adding uncertainty to the project timeline [83]. - Rio Tinto announced that the Resolution copper mine is expected to start production in the mid-2030s, which could significantly impact U.S. copper supply [84].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 61.687 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.643 billion yuan, up 24.26% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 3.618 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 22.77% [3][9] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline of 21.27% and a net profit decline of 35.21%, primarily due to increased asset impairment losses and reduced investment income [5][6] - The company plans to increase production in 2026, with targets set for copper, lead, zinc, and iron ore, which are expected to contribute to future performance growth [7] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 61.687 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.3%. The projected revenues for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 70.865 billion yuan, 73.389 billion yuan, and 75.967 billion yuan, respectively [12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026 is forecasted to be 5.038 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 38.3% compared to 2025. The EPS for 2026 is estimated at 2.11 yuan per share [12][9] - The company’s PE ratio for 2026 is projected to be 11.97X, which is lower than the average of comparable companies, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [9]

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing bull market that began in September 2024, suggesting that recent market adjustments are typical fluctuations within a bull cycle, with a positive outlook for the future [8][9][10] - The report highlights the impact of high oil prices on various sectors, indicating that upstream industries like oil extraction and coal are benefiting, while downstream manufacturing may face profit pressures due to rising costs [15][16] - The report discusses the growth of fixed income funds, particularly the "fixed income plus" funds, which are expected to see significant growth in assets under management, driven by market conditions and investor behavior [18][19] Macro and Strategy - The report outlines the nature of market volatility, comparing it to thunderstorms within a bull market, and suggests that the current market environment remains optimistic despite recent fluctuations [8][10] - It identifies key signals to watch for market recovery, including geopolitical stability, domestic policy support, and advancements in AI applications [11] Industry and Company Analysis - The report provides insights into various companies, such as China Pacific Insurance and CITIC Securities, noting their strong performance and growth potential in the current market environment [6] - It highlights the performance of the REITs market, indicating a weak trend but noting significant developments such as the first insurance asset management participation in commercial real estate REITs [21][22] - The report discusses the performance of the bond market, particularly the long-term bonds, which are expected to stabilize despite geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [24][25]