Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The profit margin on the lithium carbonate futures market has widened, but the upward movement is facing pressure. The increase in ore prices has significantly reduced the incentive for ore and lithium salt producers to cut production. However, domestic anti - cut - throat competition policies and the US cancellation of new energy subsidies will suppress downstream demand [4]. - For single - side trading, it is recommended to short on rallies, with the price of the 2507 contract expected to range between 55,000 and 65,000 yuan/ton. For inter - delivery spread trading, reverse spreads are recommended, except for the 8 - 9 contracts which should maintain a positive spread strategy. For hedging, selling hedges are advised, and the selling hedging ratio is recommended to be increased to 80% [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - This week, the main lithium carbonate futures contracts fluctuated upwards. The 2509 contract closed at 63,280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2511 contract closed at 63,020 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 1,150 yuan/ton to 62,300 yuan/ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2509 contract) strengthened by 1,170 yuan/ton to - 980 yuan/ton. The 2509 - 2511 contract spread was 260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - The report also presents price data of various lithium - related products in the spot market, including lithium ore, lithium salts, and lithium - battery materials, along with their price changes [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Ore) - The increase in lithium carbonate prices has driven up lithium ore prices. The price of spodumene concentrate rose 24 dollars/ton to 653 dollars/ton this week. The futures market has offered relatively high hedging profits for purchased ores, and it is expected that future production will maintain a high supply level. Currently, the production of salt lakes is increasing seasonally, and a new project in Qinghai has been put into operation. This week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,123 tons, a decrease of 644 tons from last week due to maintenance in Jiangxi [2]. - In June 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 14,600 tons, a 3.4% increase month - on - month, with 10,000 tons exported to China, a 6% increase month - on - month. However, the import volume remains at a low level [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, inventory, and import - export volume of lithium salts, including battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. For example, the social inventory of lithium carbonate continues to increase, mainly concentrated in the trading sector. The lithium carbonate inventory is 138,347 tons, an increase of 1,510 tons from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts has decreased to 21,036 tons [3]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - The report includes charts on the apparent consumption, inventory available days of lithium carbonate, and the production, production capacity utilization rate, import - export volume of lithium - battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [25][27]. - On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the governance of low - price disorderly competition and the promotion of the exit of backward production capacity. In the new energy vehicle and lithium - battery industries, the demand for upstream raw materials is expected to weaken. The US Senate and House of Representatives have passed the revised "OBBBA" bill, which significantly reduces new energy - related subsidies, including the early cancellation of the $7,500 electric vehicle purchase subsidy in September 2025 and the reduction of battery manufacturing subsidies, and the termination of wind and solar tax deductions in 2027 [3].