1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term supply - demand expectations of new energy metals continue to diverge. The supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains tight, while that of industrial silicon and polysilicon is generally loose. In the short term, the pessimistic demand expectation has pressured the lithium carbonate price, but the actual supply - demand is tight with active downstream buying. Polysilicon is under pressure due to loose supply - demand, and industrial silicon is boosted by cost increase expectations. In the long term, the supply of polysilicon is expected to shrink, and its price may fluctuate widely. The lithium ore capacity is rising, and the demand expectation is high, with the expected supply - demand surplus narrowing and the price center expected to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of March 9, the price of oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang was 8650 yuan/ton and in Yunnan was 9300 yuan/ton; 421 in Xinjiang was 8850 yuan/ton and in Yunnan was 9750 yuan/ton. As of last week, the domestic inventory of industrial silicon was 452,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%. In 2025, the cumulative production was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. In December 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation of industrial silicon is low. The market focuses on the electricity price fluctuation in Xinjiang, and the silicon price rebounds under cost support. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the operation in the southwest has dropped to a very low level during the dry season, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. The northwest large - scale plants reduced production at the end of January, and the number of operating furnaces increased last week. The operation of northwest silicon plants is expected to recover, and the operation in the southwest will also increase during the wet season, so there is still long - term over - supply pressure. On the demand side, the polysilicon inventory consumption pressure is large, some silicon material plants continue to have shutdown maintenance, and the demand for industrial silicon in March is still weak; the silicone enterprises maintain prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is weakly stable; the demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloy has limited boost. In general, after the Spring Festival, some production capacity of northwest silicon plants has resumed. In the medium - and long - term, the supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large while the demand is weak, and the industry over - supply pressure still exists [6]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price is still under pressure due to the medium - and long - term supply recovery pressure. Currently, the market sentiment is volatile, and the silicon price is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On March 9, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 49 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/kg. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on March 9 was 10,350 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 0 lots. In December 2025, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was about 25,115.57 tons. In December 2025, the total import volume of polysilicon was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was about 19,051.01 tons [6][7]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the energy price has risen rapidly, and the price of polysilicon, a high - energy - consuming commodity, has also been boosted in the short term. In terms of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry season, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest has gradually reduced, and the current production is at a low level. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon continues to be weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is at a relatively low level, the polysilicon inventory is accumulating, and the number of warehouse receipts is also increasing, which puts pressure on the price. In general, the weak demand drags down the short - term polysilicon price trend, and the spot price has been continuously adjusted down. In the long term, considering that the supply of polysilicon is also shrinking, and the leading enterprises are strengthening mergers and acquisitions, the long - term supply - demand of polysilicon is expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [7]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand drags down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the supply is still at a low level, the polysilicon price may show a wide - range fluctuation in the medium - and long - term [7]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Information**: On March 6, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.14% to 161,060 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total open interest of the lithium carbonate contract decreased by 2,932 lots to 625,799 lots. On March 6, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 153,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1,050 yuan/ton, and the evening market price was 154,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 750 yuan/ton; the morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 750 yuan/ton, and the evening price was 154,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 531 lots to 36,861 lots [8]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate in March are still strong, but the subsequent performance of the terminal remains to be observed. Since 2026, the supply has remained relatively strong. Although some enterprises have carried out maintenance and production reduction, the overall supply is at a high level. At the same time, the demand is good, and the downstream is active in stocking after the price adjustment. The supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and the social inventory has decreased. After the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand sides have recovered. The strong demand in March and the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe have significantly boosted the market sentiment. However, the sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to February is not optimistic and needs further verification in March and April, which is the key to the supply - demand balance in the second quarter. Before that, the price is expected to fluctuate. In addition, the energy price increase caused by the Middle East war may increase the energy storage demand, which has a certain impact on the price [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific content for further summarization 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,584.35, an increase of 2.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2,937.05, an increase of 2.55%; the industrial product index was 2,527.43, an increase of 3.87%; the PPI commodity index was 1,455.85, an increase of 1.70% [47]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On March 9, 2026, the index was 522.37, with a daily increase of 1.54%, a 5 - day increase of 0.61%, a monthly decrease of 1.81%, and an increase of 2.49% since the beginning of the year [48].